Stock Analysis

The total return for HDFC Asset Management (NSE:HDFCAMC) investors has risen faster than earnings growth over the last three years

NSEI:HDFCAMC
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It hasn't been the best quarter for HDFC Asset Management Company Limited (NSE:HDFCAMC) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 14% in that time. But that shouldn't obscure the pleasing returns achieved by shareholders over the last three years. To wit, the share price did better than an index fund, climbing 74% during that period.

While the stock has fallen 4.3% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for HDFC Asset Management

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During three years of share price growth, HDFC Asset Management achieved compound earnings per share growth of 20% per year. This EPS growth is remarkably close to the 20% average annual increase in the share price. This suggests that sentiment and expectations have not changed drastically. Au contraire, the share price change has arguably mimicked the EPS growth.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NSEI:HDFCAMC Earnings Per Share Growth March 1st 2025

We know that HDFC Asset Management has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.

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What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of HDFC Asset Management, it has a TSR of 86% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that HDFC Asset Management shareholders are down 2.4% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 1.1%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 6% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand HDFC Asset Management better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for HDFC Asset Management you should know about.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if HDFC Asset Management might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.