Stock Analysis

Shareholders in Ocado Group (LON:OCDO) have lost 82%, as stock drops 17% this past week

LSE:OCDO
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It's not possible to invest over long periods without making some bad investments. But really bad investments should be rare. So consider, for a moment, the misfortune of Ocado Group plc (LON:OCDO) investors who have held the stock for three years as it declined a whopping 82%. That might cause some serious doubts about the merits of the initial decision to buy the stock, to put it mildly. And over the last year the share price fell 27%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 46% in the last three months. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

With the stock having lost 17% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

View our latest analysis for Ocado Group

Given that Ocado Group didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

Over three years, Ocado Group grew revenue at 4.1% per year. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. But the share price crash at 22% per year does seem a bit harsh! While we're definitely wary of the stock, after that kind of performance, it could be an over-reaction. Of course, revenue growth is nice but generally speaking the lower the profits, the riskier the business - and this business isn't making steady profits.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
LSE:OCDO Earnings and Revenue Growth April 8th 2024

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. You can see what analysts are predicting for Ocado Group in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 4.7% in the last year, Ocado Group shareholders lost 27%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 12% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Ocado Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Ocado Group , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Ocado Group is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Ocado Group is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.