Stock Analysis

Does Travis Perkins (LON:TPK) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

LSE:TPK
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Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Travis Perkins plc (LON:TPK) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Travis Perkins

What Is Travis Perkins's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2023 Travis Perkins had debt of UK£608.3m, up from UK£453.2m in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of UK£334.5m, its net debt is less, at about UK£273.8m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
LSE:TPK Debt to Equity History August 22nd 2023

A Look At Travis Perkins' Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Travis Perkins had liabilities of UK£1.32b due within 12 months and liabilities of UK£967.3m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of UK£334.5m and UK£819.4m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling UK£1.14b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of UK£1.74b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Travis Perkins' use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

While Travis Perkins's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.88 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 5.3 times last year does give us pause. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. Importantly, Travis Perkins's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 24% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Travis Perkins's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Travis Perkins produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 61% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

Travis Perkins's struggle to grow its EBIT had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. For example, its net debt to EBITDA is relatively strong. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Travis Perkins's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Travis Perkins .

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.