Travis Perkins plc

LSE:TPK Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£1.7b

Travis Perkins Valuation

Is TPK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TPK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TPK (£7.95) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£10.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TPK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TPK?

Key metric: As TPK is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for TPK. This is calculated by dividing TPK's market cap by their current revenue.
What is TPK's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.4x
SalesUK£4.75b
Market CapUK£1.68b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does TPK's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for TPK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.7x
GFTU Grafton Group
0.8x6.0%UK£1.9b
RS1 RS Group
1.2x4.6%UK£3.4b
HWDN Howden Joinery Group
1.9x4.8%UK£4.5b
AT. Ashtead Technology Holdings
2.9x21.7%UK£411.1m
TPK Travis Perkins
0.4x2.6%UK£1.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: TPK is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the peer average (1.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does TPK's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Trade Distributors Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SHI SIG
0.08x2.5%US$279.07m
LORD Lords Group Trading
0.1x1.9%US$75.25m
HSS HSS Hire Group
0.1x-0.8%US$50.18m
SLNG H C Slingsby
0.1xn/aUS$3.95m
TPK 0.4xIndustry Avg. 0.8xNo. of Companies5PS00.81.62.43.24+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: TPK is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the UK Trade Distributors industry average (0.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TPK's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TPK PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.4x
Fair PS Ratio0.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: TPK is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TPK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£7.95
UK£9.36
+17.9%
9.0%UK£11.50UK£7.80n/a16
Nov ’25UK£8.14
UK£9.50
+16.7%
9.2%UK£11.50UK£7.80n/a16
Oct ’25UK£9.14
UK£9.67
+5.7%
10.3%UK£11.50UK£7.80n/a16
Sep ’25UK£9.07
UK£9.45
+4.2%
10.4%UK£11.00UK£7.75n/a16
Aug ’25UK£9.35
UK£9.16
-2.1%
13.3%UK£11.00UK£7.60n/a16
Jul ’25UK£7.68
UK£8.68
+13.2%
14.3%UK£11.00UK£6.10n/a17
Jun ’25UK£8.60
UK£8.54
-0.6%
14.3%UK£11.00UK£6.10n/a17
May ’25UK£7.69
UK£8.06
+4.8%
11.6%UK£10.11UK£6.10n/a17
Apr ’25UK£7.29
UK£7.99
+9.6%
10.0%UK£9.50UK£6.10n/a17
Mar ’25UK£7.56
UK£8.42
+11.3%
10.4%UK£10.25UK£6.40n/a17
Feb ’25UK£7.76
UK£8.28
+6.7%
11.8%UK£10.25UK£6.40n/a18
Jan ’25UK£8.29
UK£8.22
-0.8%
11.6%UK£10.25UK£6.45n/a18
Dec ’24UK£7.73
UK£8.19
+6.0%
11.6%UK£10.25UK£6.45n/a18
Nov ’24UK£7.44
UK£8.34
+12.1%
11.2%UK£10.25UK£6.50UK£8.1417
Oct ’24UK£8.44
UK£9.19
+8.9%
12.0%UK£12.00UK£7.80UK£9.1418
Sep ’24UK£8.47
UK£9.19
+8.5%
12.0%UK£12.00UK£7.80UK£9.0718
Aug ’24UK£8.85
UK£9.15
+3.5%
12.2%UK£12.00UK£7.80UK£9.3518
Jul ’24UK£8.12
UK£9.27
+14.1%
11.7%UK£12.00UK£7.80UK£7.6818
Jun ’24UK£8.78
UK£10.14
+15.5%
12.9%UK£13.00UK£8.10UK£8.6018
May ’24UK£9.58
UK£10.13
+5.8%
12.6%UK£13.00UK£8.10UK£7.6919
Apr ’24UK£9.56
UK£10.14
+6.0%
12.6%UK£13.10UK£8.20UK£7.2919
Mar ’24UK£10.15
UK£9.96
-1.8%
13.8%UK£13.10UK£8.20UK£7.5618
Feb ’24UK£10.31
UK£9.69
-6.0%
13.6%UK£13.30UK£8.20UK£7.7619
Jan ’24UK£8.89
UK£9.68
+8.8%
14.9%UK£13.30UK£8.00UK£8.2919
Dec ’23UK£9.49
UK£9.74
+2.7%
14.3%UK£13.30UK£8.11UK£7.7319
Nov ’23UK£8.35
UK£9.86
+18.0%
14.8%UK£13.30UK£8.11UK£7.4418

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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