We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Grafton Group Valuation

Is GFTU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

[object Object] Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GFTU?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

GFTU key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA6.6x
PEG Ratio-0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GFTU's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GFTU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.3x
TPK Travis Perkins
8.1x-3.2%UK£2.0b
HWDN Howden Joinery Group
10x-4.0%UK£3.3b
RS1 RS Group
16.7x5.2%UK£4.5b
DPLM Diploma
38.6x9.5%UK£3.7b
GFTU Grafton Group
9x-13.7%UK£1.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GFTU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the peer average (18.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GFTU's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Trade Distributors Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a1.9%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GFTU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the UK Trade Distributors industry average (12.3x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GFTU's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GFTU PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9x
Fair PE Ratio9.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GFTU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GFTU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GFTU (£7.96) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£7.31)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GFTU is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GFTU forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£7.96
UK£10.69
+34.4%
11.1%UK£13.00UK£9.25n/a8
Nov ’23UK£7.02
UK£10.77
+53.5%
9.6%UK£12.80UK£9.30n/a7
Oct ’23UK£6.72
UK£11.29
+68.1%
23.2%UK£17.00UK£7.40n/a8
Sep ’23UK£7.04
UK£12.20
+73.3%
24.6%UK£17.00UK£7.40n/a8
Aug ’23UK£8.36
UK£13.01
+55.6%
24.0%UK£17.00UK£7.40n/a8
Jul ’23UK£7.82
UK£14.14
+80.9%
15.7%UK£17.00UK£11.50n/a8
Jun ’23UK£9.25
UK£13.98
+51.2%
13.8%UK£16.30UK£11.50n/a8
May ’23UK£9.80
UK£14.44
+47.4%
10.6%UK£16.30UK£11.50n/a8
Apr ’23UK£9.91
UK£14.87
+50.1%
11.0%UK£17.00UK£11.50n/a10
Mar ’23UK£10.30
UK£15.24
+48.0%
10.7%UK£17.00UK£11.50n/a10
Feb ’23UK£11.60
UK£15.57
+34.3%
6.7%UK£17.00UK£13.25n/a9
Jan ’23UK£12.33
UK£15.52
+25.9%
6.7%UK£17.00UK£13.25n/a9
Dec ’22UK£11.95
UK£15.52
+29.9%
6.7%UK£17.00UK£13.25UK£7.949
Nov ’22UK£13.47
UK£15.59
+15.7%
7.6%UK£17.00UK£12.70UK£7.028
Oct ’22UK£12.55
UK£15.59
+24.2%
7.6%UK£17.00UK£12.70UK£6.728
Sep ’22UK£13.92
UK£14.48
+4.0%
12.3%UK£17.00UK£11.30UK£7.049
Aug ’22UK£12.85
UK£13.62
+6.0%
9.3%UK£15.25UK£11.30UK£8.369
Jul ’22UK£12.15
UK£13.21
+8.7%
7.4%UK£14.70UK£11.30UK£7.829
Jun ’22UK£12.10
UK£13.09
+8.2%
6.8%UK£14.50UK£11.30UK£9.259
May ’22UK£11.93
UK£12.46
+4.4%
6.4%UK£13.50UK£11.30UK£9.809
Apr ’22UK£10.47
UK£11.28
+7.8%
4.1%UK£11.90UK£10.40UK£9.919
Mar ’22UK£9.86
UK£11.07
+12.4%
5.4%UK£11.90UK£9.80UK£10.309
Feb ’22UK£8.86
UK£10.41
+17.5%
5.2%UK£11.35UK£9.40UK£11.607
Jan ’22UK£9.23
UK£9.64
+4.5%
7.1%UK£10.60UK£8.50UK£12.337
Dec ’21UK£9.00
UK£9.45
+5.1%
5.9%UK£10.40UK£8.50UK£11.957

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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