Howden Joinery Group Plc

LSE:HWDN Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£4.0b

Howden Joinery Group Valuation

Is HWDN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HWDN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
UK£8.85
Fair Value
17.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
14
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: HWDN (£7.31) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£8.85)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HWDN is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HWDN?

Key metric: As HWDN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HWDN. This is calculated by dividing HWDN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HWDN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.1x
EarningsUK£249.30m
Market CapUK£4.02b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HWDN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HWDN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.7x
RS1 RS Group
16.4x12.4%UK£2.8b
DPLM Diploma
40.8x14.9%UK£5.3b
GFTU Grafton Group
14x8.6%UK£1.7b
BNZL Bunzl
19.5x5.5%UK£9.8b
HWDN Howden Joinery Group
16.1x6.0%UK£4.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HWDN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x) compared to the peer average (22.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HWDN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Trade Distributors Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HWDN 16.1xIndustry Avg. 14.3xNo. of Companies11PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HWDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x) compared to the European Trade Distributors industry average (14.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HWDN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HWDN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.1x
Fair PE Ratio16.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HWDN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HWDN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£7.31
UK£9.31
+27.5%
11.4%UK£12.10UK£8.20n/a14
Mar ’26UK£7.73
UK£9.33
+20.8%
11.2%UK£12.10UK£8.20n/a14
Feb ’26UK£8.21
UK£9.67
+17.8%
9.9%UK£12.10UK£8.49n/a13
Jan ’26UK£7.94
UK£9.69
+22.1%
9.8%UK£12.10UK£8.49n/a13
Dec ’25UK£8.16
UK£9.53
+16.8%
12.5%UK£12.10UK£6.80n/a13
Nov ’25UK£8.53
UK£9.78
+14.7%
11.9%UK£12.10UK£6.80n/a14
Oct ’25UK£9.05
UK£9.78
+8.1%
11.9%UK£12.10UK£6.80n/a14
Sep ’25UK£9.52
UK£9.72
+2.1%
12.1%UK£12.10UK£6.80n/a14
Aug ’25UK£9.30
UK£9.69
+4.2%
11.8%UK£12.10UK£6.80n/a14
Jul ’25UK£8.72
UK£9.37
+7.5%
11.9%UK£12.10UK£6.80n/a14
Jun ’25UK£9.08
UK£9.07
-0.01%
13.6%UK£11.70UK£6.80n/a15
May ’25UK£8.57
UK£8.96
+4.6%
11.7%UK£10.19UK£6.80n/a15
Apr ’25UK£9.07
UK£8.88
-2.1%
11.3%UK£10.19UK£6.80n/a15
Mar ’25UK£8.46
UK£8.64
+2.0%
11.7%UK£10.00UK£6.70UK£7.7314
Feb ’25UK£7.96
UK£8.25
+3.7%
11.0%UK£9.90UK£6.70UK£8.2114
Jan ’25UK£8.14
UK£7.99
-1.8%
9.8%UK£9.90UK£6.70UK£7.9415
Dec ’24UK£7.38
UK£7.99
+8.3%
9.8%UK£9.90UK£6.70UK£8.1615
Nov ’24UK£6.44
UK£8.18
+27.1%
9.3%UK£10.00UK£6.80UK£8.5313
Oct ’24UK£7.36
UK£8.16
+10.9%
9.0%UK£10.00UK£6.80UK£9.0514
Sep ’24UK£7.33
UK£8.16
+11.4%
9.0%UK£10.00UK£6.80UK£9.5214
Aug ’24UK£7.36
UK£8.16
+11.0%
9.0%UK£10.00UK£6.80UK£9.3014
Jul ’24UK£6.42
UK£7.86
+22.4%
9.1%UK£8.95UK£6.10UK£8.7213
Jun ’24UK£6.61
UK£7.88
+19.2%
9.0%UK£8.95UK£6.10UK£9.0813
May ’24UK£6.85
UK£7.92
+15.6%
9.2%UK£8.95UK£6.10UK£8.5712
Apr ’24UK£6.98
UK£7.92
+13.4%
9.2%UK£8.95UK£6.10UK£9.0712
Mar ’24UK£7.08
UK£7.87
+11.1%
11.4%UK£8.95UK£5.90UK£8.4613
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 14 Analysts
UK£9.31
Fair Value
21.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
14
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/03/23 21:29
End of Day Share Price 2025/03/21 00:00
Earnings2024/12/28
Annual Earnings2024/12/28

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Howden Joinery Group Plc is covered by 25 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Emily BiddulphBarclays
Rajesh PatkiBarclays
Robert ChantryBerenberg