We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Howden Joinery Group Valuation

Is HWDN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HWDN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

HWDN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA8.2x
PEG Ratio-2.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HWDN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HWDN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.9x
DPLM Diploma
37.7x9.9%UK£3.6b
RS1 RS Group
16.4x5.5%UK£4.4b
GFTU Grafton Group
9.1x-13.7%UK£1.8b
TPK Travis Perkins
8.4x-0.3%UK£2.1b
HWDN Howden Joinery Group
10.3x-4.0%UK£3.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HWDN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x) compared to the peer average (17.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HWDN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Trade Distributors Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a1.9%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HWDN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x) compared to the UK Trade Distributors industry average (12.5x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HWDN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HWDN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.3x
Fair PE Ratio13.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HWDN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HWDN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HWDN (£6.13) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£5.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HWDN is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HWDN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£6.13
UK£7.57
+23.5%
13.6%UK£9.30UK£5.90n/a12
Nov ’23UK£5.22
UK£7.90
+51.5%
14.9%UK£10.00UK£6.20n/a12
Oct ’23UK£5.05
UK£8.20
+62.2%
13.3%UK£10.00UK£6.20n/a12
Sep ’23UK£5.52
UK£8.47
+53.3%
10.6%UK£10.00UK£7.25n/a12
Aug ’23UK£6.80
UK£8.90
+30.9%
11.7%UK£10.22UK£7.25n/a13
Jul ’23UK£6.05
UK£9.45
+56.1%
13.3%UK£11.30UK£7.30n/a13
Jun ’23UK£6.75
UK£9.73
+44.2%
9.9%UK£11.30UK£7.50n/a13
May ’23UK£7.61
UK£9.97
+30.9%
6.1%UK£11.30UK£9.20n/a13
Apr ’23UK£7.81
UK£10.11
+29.4%
6.5%UK£11.30UK£9.20n/a12
Mar ’23UK£8.05
UK£10.21
+26.7%
6.2%UK£11.30UK£9.40n/a11
Feb ’23UK£8.20
UK£10.21
+24.6%
5.7%UK£11.30UK£9.40n/a11
Jan ’23UK£9.01
UK£10.25
+13.7%
4.4%UK£10.95UK£9.41n/a11
Dec ’22UK£8.94
UK£10.21
+14.3%
4.8%UK£10.95UK£9.41n/a11
Nov ’22UK£9.23
UK£9.97
+8.0%
5.1%UK£10.95UK£9.12UK£5.2211
Oct ’22UK£8.88
UK£9.78
+10.2%
6.8%UK£11.45UK£8.80UK£5.0511
Sep ’22UK£9.58
UK£9.50
-0.8%
10.0%UK£11.45UK£7.75UK£5.5212
Aug ’22UK£8.97
UK£9.40
+4.7%
8.3%UK£10.35UK£7.75UK£6.8012
Jul ’22UK£8.26
UK£8.58
+3.9%
6.9%UK£9.60UK£7.75UK£6.0512
Jun ’22UK£7.93
UK£8.42
+6.3%
9.3%UK£9.60UK£6.85UK£6.7511
May ’22UK£8.09
UK£8.14
+0.6%
7.8%UK£9.30UK£6.85UK£7.6110
Apr ’22UK£7.45
UK£7.92
+6.2%
6.3%UK£8.75UK£6.85UK£7.8110
Mar ’22UK£7.02
UK£7.91
+12.6%
6.2%UK£8.75UK£6.85UK£8.0510
Feb ’22UK£6.93
UK£7.20
+4.0%
8.9%UK£8.30UK£6.20UK£8.2010
Jan ’22UK£6.90
UK£6.61
-4.1%
9.7%UK£7.60UK£5.30UK£9.0110
Dec ’21UK£6.64
UK£6.43
-3.1%
8.2%UK£7.25UK£5.30UK£8.9410
Nov ’21UK£6.37
UK£5.94
-6.7%
8.3%UK£6.75UK£5.25UK£9.239

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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