Valneva SE (EPA:VLA) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Valneva SE (EPA:VLA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.7% to €3.26 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. It was a weak result overall, with Valneva reporting €33m in revenues, which was 56% less than what the analysts had expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Valneva

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Valneva from nine analysts is for revenues of €190.0m in 2024. If met, it would imply a sizeable 24% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Valneva is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of €0.11 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €192.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.15 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at €8.97, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Valneva analyst has a price target of €12.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €3.90. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Valneva's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 34% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 23% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 38% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Valneva is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Valneva. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Valneva going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Valneva you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.