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BAVA

Bavarian NordicCPSE:BAVA Stock Report

Last Price

kr.209.80

Market Cap

kr.14.8b

7D

-5.3%

1Y

-4.3%

Updated

21 Jan, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
BAVA fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation3/6
Future Growth5/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health4/6
Dividends0/6

BAVA Stock Overview

Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and commercializes life-saving vaccines.

Bavarian Nordic Competitors

BioPorto

CPSE:BIOPOR

kr.650.6m

Celldex Therapeutics

NasdaqCM:CLDX

US$1.3b

Chimerix

NasdaqGM:CMRX

US$478.6m

SIGA Technologies

NasdaqGM:SIGA

US$470.6m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Bavarian Nordic
Historical stock prices
Current Share Pricekr.209.80
52 Week Highkr.369.30
52 Week Lowkr.195.40
Beta1.23
1 Month Change-21.13%
3 Month Change-32.43%
1 Year Change-4.29%
3 Year Change39.87%
5 Year Change-23.57%
Change since IPO-17.72%

Recent News & Updates

Oct 21
Health Check: How Prudently Does Bavarian Nordic (CPH:BAVA) Use Debt?

Health Check: How Prudently Does Bavarian Nordic (CPH:BAVA) Use Debt?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...

Sep 16
Calculating The Fair Value Of Bavarian Nordic A/S (CPH:BAVA)

Calculating The Fair Value Of Bavarian Nordic A/S (CPH:BAVA)

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Bavarian Nordic A/S ( CPH:BAVA ) by taking the...

Shareholder Returns

BAVADK BiotechsDK Market
7D-5.3%-3.0%-1.4%
1Y-4.3%-17.3%6.9%

Return vs Industry: BAVA exceeded the Danish Biotechs industry which returned -14.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BAVA underperformed the Danish Market which returned 8.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BAVA's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BAVA volatility
BAVA Average Weekly Movement6.0%
Biotechs Industry Average Movement6.2%
Market Average Movement5.0%
10% most volatile stocks in DK Market10.1%
10% least volatile stocks in DK Market3.1%

Stable Share Price: BAVA is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Danish stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BAVA's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
1992750Paul Chaplinhttps://www.bavarian-nordic.com

Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and commercializes life-saving vaccines. The company offers non-replicating smallpox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; monkeypox under the JYNNEOS name; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/RabAvert name; tick-borne encephalitis vaccine under the Encepur name; and Ebola vaccine under the MVABEA name. It is also developing MVA-BN (freeze-dried) that is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of smallpox; MVA-BN RSV, which is in Phase II clinical trials for the treatment of respiratory syncytial virus; ABNCoV2 that is in Phase I/II clinical trial for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2; TAEK-VAC, which is in Phase I/II clinical trial for treatment of advanced HER2- and brachyury-expressing cancers; and MVA-BN WEV that is in Phase I clinical trial for treating Equine encephalitis

Bavarian Nordic Fundamentals Summary

How do Bavarian Nordic's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BAVA fundamental statistics
Market Capkr.14.76b
Earnings (TTM)-kr.737.22m
Revenue (TTM)kr.1.58b

9.3x

P/S Ratio

-20.0x

P/E Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BAVA income statement (TTM)
Revenuekr.1.58b
Cost of Revenuekr.1.25b
Gross Profitkr.331.41m
Expenseskr.1.07b
Earnings-kr.737.22m

Last Reported Earnings

Sep 30, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Mar 04, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)-10.48
Gross Margin20.94%
Net Profit Margin-46.58%
Debt/Equity Ratio15.0%

How did BAVA perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Bavarian Nordic undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

47.7%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: BAVA (DKK209.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (DKK400.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BAVA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: BAVA is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the European Biotechs industry average.

PE vs Market: BAVA is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Danish market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate BAVA's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: BAVA is good value based on its PB Ratio (2.6x) compared to the DK Biotechs industry average (5x).


Future Growth

How is Bavarian Nordic forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?

52.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BAVA is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (0.1%).

Earnings vs Market: BAVA is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: BAVA's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BAVA's revenue (22.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Danish market (6.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BAVA's revenue (22.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BAVA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (3.4%).


Past Performance

How has Bavarian Nordic performed over the past 5 years?

-21.9%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BAVA is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: BAVA is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BAVA is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 21.9% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare BAVA's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: BAVA is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (50.7%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: BAVA has a negative Return on Equity (-12.78%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Financial Health

How is Bavarian Nordic's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BAVA's short term assets (DKK3.6B) exceed its short term liabilities (DKK2.3B).

Long Term Liabilities: BAVA's short term assets (DKK3.6B) exceed its long term liabilities (DKK2.0B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BAVA has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: BAVA's debt to equity ratio has increased from 1.7% to 15% over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: BAVA has sufficient cash runway for more than a year based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if BAVA has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.


Dividend

What is Bavarian Nordic current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate BAVA's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate BAVA's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BAVA's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BAVA's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of BAVA's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the Danish market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.6yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Paul Chaplin (54 yo)

7.58yrs

Tenure

kr.8,317,000

Compensation

Dr. Paul John Chaplin, M.Sc., Ph D., has been the Chief Executive Officer and President at Bavarian Nordic A/S since May 28, 2014. Dr. Chaplin served as an Executive Vice President of Bavarian Nordic A/S f...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Insufficient data to establish whether Paul's total compensation is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in the Danish market.

Compensation vs Earnings: Paul's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BAVA's management team is considered experienced (2.6 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: BAVA's board of directors are considered experienced (4.8 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 20.5%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Bavarian Nordic A/S's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Bavarian Nordic A/S
  • Ticker: BAVA
  • Exchange: CPSE
  • Founded: 1992
  • Industry: Biotechnology
  • Sector: Pharmaceuticals & Biotech
  • Implied Market Cap: kr.14.755b
  • Shares outstanding: 70.33m
  • Website: https://www.bavarian-nordic.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Bavarian Nordic A/S
  • Philip Heymans Alle 3
  • Hellerup
  • Capital Region of Denmark
  • 2900
  • Denmark

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/01/21 21:20
End of Day Share Price2022/01/21 00:00
Earnings2021/09/30
Annual Earnings2020/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.