Bavarian Nordic (BAVA) Stock Overview
Develops, manufactures, and supplies life-saving vaccines. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 5/6 |
| Future Growth | 1/6 |
| Past Performance | 1/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
BAVA Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 43 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Bavarian Nordic A/S Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | DKK 197.00 |
| 52 Week High | DKK 244.80 |
| 52 Week Low | DKK 164.05 |
| Beta | 0.95 |
| 1 Month Change | 2.44% |
| 3 Month Change | -0.10% |
| 1 Year Change | 17.26% |
| 3 Year Change | 3.22% |
| 5 Year Change | -27.04% |
| Change since IPO | -22.74% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • May 16
BAVA: Public Preparedness Contracts And Vaccine Approvals Will Support Higher Future Returns
Analysts have kept their DKK 280 price target for Bavarian Nordic unchanged, pointing to slightly higher assumed revenue growth and profit margins, along with a modestly higher discount rate and a lower future P/E expectation as key inputs behind the refreshed valuation work. What's in the News Bavarian Nordic raised its earnings guidance for 2026, now expecting revenue of DKK 5,500 million to DKK 5,700 million, compared with the earlier range of DKK 5,000 million to DKK 5,200 million.
Narrative Update • Apr 30
BAVA: Vaccine Approvals And Capacity Expansion Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have kept their DKK 250.00 price target for Bavarian Nordic unchanged. They point to only small tweaks to assumptions on discount rate, revenue contraction, profit margin and future P/E, which they view as largely offsetting each other.Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 16
BAVA: Public Preparedness Contracts And Vaccine Approvals Will Support Higher Future Returns
Analysts have kept their DKK 280 price target for Bavarian Nordic unchanged, pointing to slightly higher assumed revenue growth and profit margins, along with a modestly higher discount rate and a lower future P/E expectation as key inputs behind the refreshed valuation work. What's in the News Bavarian Nordic raised its earnings guidance for 2026, now expecting revenue of DKK 5,500 million to DKK 5,700 million, compared with the earlier range of DKK 5,000 million to DKK 5,200 million.Narrative Update • Apr 30
BAVA: Vaccine Approvals And Capacity Expansion Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have kept their DKK 250.00 price target for Bavarian Nordic unchanged. They point to only small tweaks to assumptions on discount rate, revenue contraction, profit margin and future P/E, which they view as largely offsetting each other.
Narrative Update • Apr 16
BAVA: Expanded Vaccine Manufacturing Partnership Will Support 2026 Upside
Analysts have kept their DKK price target for Bavarian Nordic effectively unchanged, with a DKK 0.00 net move. Small tweaks to the discount rate and future P/E assumptions offset each other in their updated valuation work.Narrative Update • Apr 01
BAVA: Expanded Vaccine Pipeline And New Contracts Will Support Higher Future Returns
Analysts have raised their price target on Bavarian Nordic from DKK 244.00 to DKK 280.00. They cite updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple that they view as better reflecting the company’s current outlook.Narrative Update • Mar 18
BAVA: Expanded Vaccine Partnerships And 2026 Orders Will Support Upside
Analysts have raised their price target on Bavarian Nordic from DKK 265 to about DKK 268, reflecting adjustments to their valuation inputs, including a slightly higher discount rate, a modest change to revenue growth expectations and a marginally different assumed future P/E and profit margin profile. What's in the News Bavarian Nordic expanded its partnership with Serum Institute of India to include full tech transfer and contract manufacturing for the chikungunya vaccine CHIKV VLP, aiming to scale capacity for future supply to endemic low and middle income countries.Narrative Update • Mar 04
BAVA: Buybacks And Latin America Vaccine Deal Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have maintained their DKK 250 price target on Bavarian Nordic, citing only minor adjustments in assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E as the reasons for this stable assessment. What's in the News CEO Paul Chaplin plans to step down for personal reasons, and the Board has agreed that he will stay in the role through the end of 2026 or until a successor is appointed.Narrative Update • Feb 18
BAVA: Share Buybacks And Latin America Vaccine Deal Will Support Upside
Analysts now keep their DKK 250 price target for Bavarian Nordic intact, as slightly higher discount and future P/E assumptions together with a modestly stronger profit margin view offset softer revenue growth expectations. What's in the News Bavarian Nordic issued earnings guidance for fiscal 2026, indicating expected revenue in the range of DKK 5,000 million to DKK 5,200 million (Corporate guidance).Narrative Update • Feb 03
BAVA: Latin America Vaccine Deal Will Support Future Earnings Upside
Analysts have nudged their price target on Bavarian Nordic higher to €265, up from €260, citing updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue expectations, profit margins and forward P/E multiples. What's in the News Bavarian Nordic signed an agreement with Eurofarma, giving Eurofarma exclusive rights to sell and distribute the chikungunya vaccine CHIKV VLP, marketed as VIMKUNYA, in Brazil, along with a right of first refusal for future Latin American opportunities, on a transfer price and royalty basis with no upfront or milestone payments (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 20
BAVA: Vaccine Preparedness Contracts And Buybacks Will Support Stronger Long Term Earnings
Analysts have kept their price target for Bavarian Nordic steady at €250.00. They cite a slightly higher assumed discount rate, a smaller expected revenue decline of around 5%, a higher projected profit margin of about 17%, and a lower future P/E assumption near 23x as key inputs behind the unchanged view.Narrative Update • Jan 06
BAVA: HERA Procurement Contract And Mpox Demand Are Expected To Drive Upside
Analysts have kept their price target for Bavarian Nordic unchanged at €260. This reflects only small tweaks to inputs such as discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions rather than a shift in their overall view.Narrative Update • Dec 16
BAVA: Mpox Preparedness Contracts Will Underpin Stronger Long Term Earnings Power
Analysts have raised their price target on Bavarian Nordic from approximately $225 to about $250. This reflects a higher justified valuation multiple despite expectations for softer revenue growth and margins.Narrative Update • Dec 02
BAVA: Procurement Agreement And Margin Outlook Signal Upside For Shares
Analysts have raised their price target for Bavarian Nordic from €250 to €260. They cite improvements in projected profit margins and lower expected future price-to-earnings ratios, even though there is a modest increase in the discount rate and a slightly weaker revenue growth outlook.Narrative Update • Oct 24
Local Spread Of New Mpox Strain Will Challenge Future Vaccine Margins
Narrative Update on Bavarian Nordic Analysts have raised their fair value price target for Bavarian Nordic from €244 to €250, citing modest improvements in valuation assumptions and financial projections. What's in the News Officials in California have confirmed community spread of the new clade 1 Mpox strain among residents with no recent international travel.Narrative Update • Aug 27
VIMKUNYA Launch Will Open Markets, But Approval Delays Could Impact Revenues
Despite a deterioration in consensus revenue growth forecasts, a modest improvement in net profit margin has supported a slight increase in Bavarian Nordic's fair value, with the target price rising from DKK234.50 to DKK244.00. What's in the News Nordic Capital and Permira have proposed to acquire Bavarian Nordic for DKK 18.1 billion (DKK 233 per share), a 21% premium to the prior closing price; board and management have agreed to tender their shares, and a delisting is planned upon completion, subject to customary conditions.Analysis Article • Jul 28
Bavarian Nordic A/S (CPH:BAVA) Held Back By Insufficient Growth Even After Shares Climb 38%
Despite an already strong run, Bavarian Nordic A/S ( CPH:BAVA ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 38% in the...Analysis Article • Jun 13
Earnings Working Against Bavarian Nordic A/S' (CPH:BAVA) Share Price
When close to half the companies in Denmark have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 16x, you may consider...Analysis Article • Apr 03
Here's Why Shareholders May Want To Be Cautious With Increasing Bavarian Nordic A/S' (CPH:BAVA) CEO Pay Packet
Key Insights Bavarian Nordic's Annual General Meeting to take place on 9th of April Total pay for CEO Paul Chaplin...Analysis Article • Mar 13
Bavarian Nordic's (CPH:BAVA) Soft Earnings Are Actually Better Than They Appear
The market for Bavarian Nordic A/S' ( CPH:BAVA ) shares didn't move much after it posted weak earnings recently. We...Analysis Article • Mar 08
Bavarian Nordic A/S Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Bavarian Nordic A/S ( CPH:BAVA ) came out with its yearly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is...
New Narrative • Feb 10
Chikungunya Vaccine Launch And Market Expansion Will Open Opportunities But Mpox Demand Uncertainties Could Pose Risks
The chikungunya vaccine launch and expansion into new markets could significantly drive revenue and broaden customer base.Analysis Article • Dec 14
Getting In Cheap On Bavarian Nordic A/S (CPH:BAVA) Is Unlikely
With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 14x in Denmark, you could be forgiven for feeling...Analysis Article • Nov 16
Does Bavarian Nordic (CPH:BAVA) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Analysis Article • Aug 26
Market Participants Recognise Bavarian Nordic A/S' (CPH:BAVA) Earnings Pushing Shares 53% Higher
Bavarian Nordic A/S ( CPH:BAVA ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 53% share price jump in the last...Analysis Article • Aug 25
Bavarian Nordic A/S Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Last week, you might have seen that Bavarian Nordic A/S ( CPH:BAVA ) released its quarterly result to the market. The...Shareholder Returns
| BAVA | DK Biotechs | DK Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.09% |
| 1Y | 17.3% | 14.3% | -14.4% |
Return vs Industry: BAVA exceeded the Danish Biotechs industry which returned 12.2% over the past year.
Return vs Market: BAVA exceeded the Danish Market which returned -15% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| BAVA volatility | |
|---|---|
| BAVA Average Weekly Movement | 3.6% |
| Biotechs Industry Average Movement | 8.6% |
| Market Average Movement | 4.7% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in DK Market | 9.1% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in DK Market | 2.9% |
Stable Share Price: BAVA has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the Danish market.
Volatility Over Time: BAVA's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 | 1,861 | Paul Chaplin | www.bavarian-nordic.com |
Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and supplies life-saving vaccines. The company offers non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/RabAvert name; tick-borne encephalitis vaccine under the Encepur name; Vaxchora, an oral vaccine for immunization against cholera; and Vivotif/Typhoral, an oral vaccine for immunization against typhoid fever. It is also developing MVA-BN WEV, that is in phase 2 trial for the treatment of encephalitis viruses.
Bavarian Nordic A/S Fundamentals Summary
| BAVA fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | DKK 15.07b |
| Earnings (TTM) | DKK 1.17b |
| Revenue (TTM) | DKK 5.96b |
12.8x
P/E Ratio2.5x
P/S RatioIs BAVA overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| BAVA income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | DKK 5.96b |
| Cost of Revenue | DKK 3.09b |
| Gross Profit | DKK 2.87b |
| Other Expenses | DKK 1.69b |
| Earnings | DKK 1.17b |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
Aug 21, 2026
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 15.34 |
| Gross Margin | 48.11% |
| Net Profit Margin | 19.71% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 0.1% |
How did BAVA perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/22 07:47 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/22 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Bavarian Nordic A/S is covered by 13 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Jacob Lademann | Carnegie Investment Bank AB |
| Peter Verdult | Citigroup Inc |
| Hakon Hemme Jørgensen | Danske Bank |