Bavarian Nordic A/S Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Bavarian Nordic A/S (CPH:BAVA) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.4% to kr.277 in the past week. Revenue came in at kr.1.4b, beating expectations by a remarkable 21%, while statutory earnings per share (EPS) were kr.3.30, missing estimates by an equally remarkable 56%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Bavarian Nordic

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from five analysts covering Bavarian Nordic is for revenues of kr.5.76b in 2024. This implies a noticeable 5.3% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr.5.25b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr.9.80 in 2024. The thing that stands out most is that, while there's been a slight bump in revenue estimates, the consensus no longer provides an EPS estimate. This impliesthat revenue is more important following the latest results.

The average price target rose 8.7% to kr.286, with the analysts clearly having become more optimistic about Bavarian Nordic'sprospects following these results. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Bavarian Nordic at kr.380 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr.176. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 10% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 43% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 20% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Bavarian Nordic's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts upgraded their revenue estimates for next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

We have estimates for Bavarian Nordic from its five analysts out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Bavarian Nordic you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.