Bavarian Nordic Valuation
Is BAVA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
5/6Valuation Score 5/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of BAVA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: BAVA (DKK198.95) is trading below our estimate of fair value (DKK509.95)
Significantly Below Fair Value: BAVA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BAVA?
Key metric: As BAVA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is BAVA's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 14x |
| Earnings | DKK 1.12b |
| Market Cap | DKK 15.63b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 2.3x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 7.9x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.9x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does BAVA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 36.8x | ||
GMAB Genmab | 20.1x | 23.5% | DKK 94.4b |
CHEMM ChemoMetec | 61.7x | 17.2% | DKK 8.4b |
4587 PeptiDream | 19.8x | 0.1% | JP¥339.3b |
ALK B ALK-Abelló | 45.5x | 21.5% | DKK 35.7b |
BAVA Bavarian Nordic | 14x | 3.6% | DKK 15.6b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BAVA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the peer average (36.8x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does BAVA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Biotechs Industry?
| 5 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BAVA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the European Biotechs industry average (28.1x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is BAVA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 14x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 21.4x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BAVA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.4x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | DKK 198.95 | DKK 319.50 +60.6% | 16.4% | DKK 370.00 | DKK 238.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Dec ’25 | DKK 193.40 | DKK 319.50 +65.2% | 16.4% | DKK 370.00 | DKK 238.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Nov ’25 | DKK 216.00 | DKK 315.00 +45.8% | 17.2% | DKK 375.00 | DKK 230.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Oct ’25 | DKK 222.80 | DKK 310.80 +39.5% | 15.8% | DKK 375.00 | DKK 230.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Sep ’25 | DKK 266.00 | DKK 286.00 +7.5% | 25.7% | DKK 380.00 | DKK 176.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Aug ’25 | DKK 187.90 | DKK 263.20 +40.1% | 20.3% | DKK 331.00 | DKK 176.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Jul ’25 | DKK 171.65 | DKK 263.20 +53.3% | 20.3% | DKK 331.00 | DKK 176.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Jun ’25 | DKK 184.85 | DKK 262.00 +41.7% | 21.1% | DKK 331.00 | DKK 170.00 | n/a | 5 |
| May ’25 | DKK 152.40 | DKK 264.80 +73.8% | 22.3% | DKK 345.00 | DKK 170.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Apr ’25 | DKK 154.95 | DKK 276.80 +78.6% | 20.9% | DKK 345.00 | DKK 170.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Mar ’25 | DKK 155.30 | DKK 276.80 +78.2% | 20.9% | DKK 345.00 | DKK 170.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Feb ’25 | DKK 154.60 | DKK 292.80 +89.4% | 21.1% | DKK 350.00 | DKK 174.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Jan ’25 | DKK 177.45 | DKK 275.67 +55.3% | 24.8% | DKK 350.00 | DKK 174.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Dec ’24 | DKK 164.10 | DKK 275.67 +68.0% | 24.8% | DKK 350.00 | DKK 174.00 | DKK 193.40 | 6 |
| Nov ’24 | DKK 138.15 | DKK 279.00 +102.0% | 18.1% | DKK 340.00 | DKK 214.00 | DKK 216.00 | 6 |
| Oct ’24 | DKK 158.50 | DKK 292.29 +84.4% | 21.9% | DKK 407.00 | DKK 214.00 | DKK 222.80 | 7 |
| Sep ’24 | DKK 154.65 | DKK 292.29 +89.0% | 21.9% | DKK 407.00 | DKK 214.00 | DKK 266.00 | 7 |
| Aug ’24 | DKK 142.10 | DKK 309.14 +117.6% | 22.5% | DKK 424.00 | DKK 245.00 | DKK 187.90 | 7 |
| Jul ’24 | DKK 194.00 | DKK 367.29 +89.3% | 14.8% | DKK 425.00 | DKK 265.00 | DKK 171.65 | 7 |
| Jun ’24 | DKK 188.30 | DKK 367.29 +95.1% | 14.8% | DKK 425.00 | DKK 265.00 | DKK 184.85 | 7 |
| May ’24 | DKK 185.95 | DKK 391.71 +110.7% | 17.8% | DKK 480.00 | DKK 265.00 | DKK 152.40 | 7 |
| Apr ’24 | DKK 196.60 | DKK 391.71 +99.2% | 17.8% | DKK 480.00 | DKK 265.00 | DKK 154.95 | 7 |
| Mar ’24 | DKK 214.00 | DKK 387.33 +81.0% | 19.4% | DKK 480.00 | DKK 265.00 | DKK 155.30 | 6 |
| Feb ’24 | DKK 212.90 | DKK 400.00 +87.9% | 18.9% | DKK 480.00 | DKK 265.00 | DKK 154.60 | 7 |
| Jan ’24 | DKK 213.40 | DKK 400.57 +87.7% | 18.7% | DKK 480.00 | DKK 269.00 | DKK 177.45 | 7 |
| Dec ’23 | DKK 241.00 | DKK 400.57 +66.2% | 18.7% | DKK 480.00 | DKK 269.00 | DKK 164.10 | 7 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2024/12/18 03:14 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2024/12/18 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2024/09/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2023/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .
Analyst Sources
Bavarian Nordic A/S is covered by 15 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Peter Ankersen | ABG Sundal Collier |
| Jacob Lademann | Carnegie Investment Bank AB |
| Peter Verdult | Citigroup Inc |