€6.97: That's What Analysts Think Valneva SE (EPA:VLA) Is Worth After Its Latest Results

Valneva SE (EPA:VLA) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Results overall were solid, with revenues arriving 5.7% better than analyst forecasts at €46m. Higher revenues also resulted in substantially lower statutory losses which, at €0.07 per share, were 5.7% smaller than the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Valneva

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Valneva's nine analysts is for revenues of €215.5m in 2025. This would reflect a substantial 36% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 726% to €0.38 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €220.3m and losses of €0.14 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Valneva after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.

The consensus price target fell 5.4% to €6.97, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Valneva at €11.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €3.70. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Valneva's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 28% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 14% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 31% per year. Valneva is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Valneva. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Valneva's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Valneva analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Valneva has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.