Earnings Miss: HelloFresh SE Missed EPS By 78% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Explore HelloFresh's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

As you might know, HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) last week released its latest second-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €1.7b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 78%, coming in at just €0.08 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the eleven analysts covering HelloFresh provided consensus estimates of €7.04b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a noticeable 3.2% decline over the past 12 months. HelloFresh is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of €0.26 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €7.17b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.10 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the great increase in earnings per share expectations following these results.

View our latest analysis for HelloFresh

The consensus price target was unchanged at €11.57, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic HelloFresh analyst has a price target of €18.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €7.60. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 6.2% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 14% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - HelloFresh is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around HelloFresh's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple HelloFresh analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for HelloFresh (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.