HelloFresh Valuation

Is HFG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HFG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HFG (€9.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€51.31)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HFG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HFG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

HFG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA27.3x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does HFG's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for HFG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.5x
HAW Hawesko Holding
0.4x2.9%€236.3m
MSH WASGAU Produktions & Handels
0.1xn/a€65.3m
B4B Metro
0.06x2.8%€1.8b
RDC Redcare Pharmacy
1.3x17.0%€2.8b
HFG HelloFresh
0.2x4.2%€1.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: HFG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (0.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HFG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Retailing Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.6%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPS048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.6%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: HFG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the European Consumer Retailing industry average (0.4x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HFG's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HFG PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.2x
Fair PS Ratio0.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: HFG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HFG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€9.30
€8.19
-11.9%
29.6%€14.31€4.00n/a14
Sep ’25€7.42
€8.15
+9.9%
28.7%€14.31€4.00n/a15
Aug ’25€5.64
€8.42
+49.3%
35.8%€16.00€4.00n/a15
Jul ’25€4.81
€10.03
+108.6%
62.7%€31.00€5.50n/a15
Jun ’25€5.50
€9.89
+79.9%
62.1%€31.00€5.50n/a16
May ’25€6.34
€9.82
+55.1%
61.0%€31.00€5.50n/a17
Apr ’25€6.59
€10.42
+58.0%
56.4%€31.00€5.00n/a17
Mar ’25€12.64
€23.05
+82.4%
41.1%€45.00€11.00n/a18
Feb ’25€11.86
€23.30
+96.5%
39.8%€45.00€11.00n/a18
Jan ’25€14.31
€24.23
+69.3%
35.1%€45.00€11.00n/a18
Dec ’24€14.25
€24.49
+71.9%
35.4%€45.00€11.00n/a17
Nov ’24€20.93
€32.57
+55.6%
27.7%€47.00€16.00n/a15
Oct ’24€28.28
€33.06
+16.9%
25.3%€47.00€17.00€9.3115
Sep ’24€29.48
€32.11
+8.9%
25.2%€47.00€17.00€7.4217
Aug ’24€25.30
€32.11
+26.9%
25.2%€47.00€17.00€5.6417
Jul ’24€22.60
€32.55
+44.0%
27.1%€49.00€17.00€4.8117
Jun ’24€20.84
€33.16
+59.1%
26.4%€49.00€17.00€5.5016
May ’24€24.23
€33.16
+36.8%
26.4%€49.00€17.00€6.3416
Apr ’24€21.91
€30.96
+41.3%
32.7%€49.00€17.00€6.5914
Mar ’24€20.47
€34.54
+68.7%
30.1%€55.00€18.00€12.6414
Feb ’24€21.27
€42.30
+98.9%
40.2%€81.00€18.00€11.8615
Jan ’24€20.53
€44.59
+117.2%
35.3%€81.00€18.00€14.3116
Dec ’23€24.77
€44.34
+79.0%
36.1%€81.00€18.00€14.2516
Nov ’23€21.78
€45.97
+111.1%
37.4%€81.00€18.00€20.9316
Oct ’23€21.75
€54.47
+150.4%
32.8%€94.00€19.00€28.2817

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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