Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (TSE:LSPD) Just Released Its Second-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Investors in Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (TSE:LSPD) had a good week, as its shares rose 9.0% to close at CA$18.37 following the release of its second-quarter results. Revenue of US$319m came in 3.5% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn't fare nearly so well, recording a loss of US$0.24, a 17% miss. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the 19 analysts covering Lightspeed Commerce are now predicting revenues of US$1.22b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 5.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 82% to US$0.90. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.21b and losses of US$0.95 per share in 2026. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrade to loss per share forecasts for this year.

See our latest analysis for Lightspeed Commerce

The average price target held steady at CA$20.44, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Lightspeed Commerce analyst has a price target of CA$30.41 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$12.01. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Lightspeed Commerce's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 29% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 18% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Lightspeed Commerce is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Lightspeed Commerce. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Lightspeed Commerce going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Lightspeed Commerce that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.