SMCI is a good-stock-not-great-company setup: a narrow, cycle-renewed moat and structurally thin margins, but priced at ~3.9x our model's FY28E EBITDA with net cash, above-Street revenue momentum and a decaying trust discount. Our framework is appropriately hard-nosed, an 11.4% WACC which includes at 25bps FED rate hike, a DCF that embeds a 48% peak-to-trough AI capex bust, and applied multiples at 35-69% discounts to the 10.12x EV/EBITDA & 1.61x EV/REVENUE peer medians and it still produces a $55.85 blended target, 46.6% above our $38.09 reference price.Read more