Stock Analysis

Analyst Forecasts For Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TSE:TFPM) Are Surging Higher

TSX:TFPM
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Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TSE:TFPM) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. The consensus statutory numbers for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) increased, with their view clearly much more bullish on the company's business prospects. The market seems to be pricing in some improvement in the business too, with the stock up 5.6% over the past week, closing at CA$21.61. Could this big upgrade push the stock even higher?

After this upgrade, Triple Flag Precious Metals' six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$248m in 2024. This would be a substantial 22% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 183% to US$0.51. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$221m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.39 in 2024. So we can see there's been a pretty clear increase in analyst sentiment in recent times, with both revenues and earnings per share receiving a decent lift in the latest estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Triple Flag Precious Metals

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TSX:TFPM Earnings and Revenue Growth April 11th 2024

Despite these upgrades, the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$18.21, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Triple Flag Precious Metals analyst has a price target of US$23.01 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$15.74. This shows there is still some diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 22% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 23% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 11% per year. So although Triple Flag Precious Metals is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, with improved earnings power expected for this year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for this year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling, but with a serious upgrade to this year's earnings expectations, it might be time to take another look at Triple Flag Precious Metals.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Triple Flag Precious Metals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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Find out whether Triple Flag Precious Metals is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About TSX:TFPM

Triple Flag Precious Metals

A precious-metals-focused streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d’Ivoire, Honduras, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, the United States, and internationally.

Flawless balance sheet with moderate growth potential.