Triple Flag Precious Metals Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
Triple Flag Precious Metals is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 13.2% and 9.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 9.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 14.6% in 3 years.
Key information
13.2%
Earnings growth rate
9.40%
EPS growth rate
| Metals and Mining earnings growth | 16.7% |
| Revenue growth rate | 9.2% |
| Future return on equity | 14.58% |
| Analyst coverage | Low |
| Last updated | 18 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 24
TFPM: 2026 Metal Price Assumptions Will Drive Future Cash Flow Upside
Analysts have raised their CA$ price targets on Triple Flag Precious Metals by CA$2, reflecting updated metal price forecasts and revised assumptions for growth, margins and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research points to a cluster of price target revisions on Triple Flag Precious Metals, driven mainly by updated metal price assumptions and refreshed views on future P/E multiples.Narrative Update • Apr 08
TFPM: Higher Metal Price Assumptions Will Support Future Cash Flow Upside
Analysts have raised their CA$ price targets on Triple Flag Precious Metals, with the updated fair value edging up by about CA$0.22 as they incorporate refreshed metal price forecasts and modest tweaks to the discount rate and P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has centred on a series of higher price targets for Triple Flag Precious Metals, with updates tied mainly to refreshed metal price forecasts and adjustments to valuation inputs such as P/E assumptions and discount rates.Narrative Update • Mar 25
TFPM: Higher Metal Price Assumptions Will Support Future Cash Flows
Analysts have lifted their average CA$ price target for Triple Flag Precious Metals by about CA$1, reflecting updated metal price forecasts, higher assumed revenue growth, and a slightly lower discount rate, partially offset by more conservative profit margin and P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has focused on revisiting valuation frameworks for Triple Flag Precious Metals, with several bullish analysts adjusting price targets in both US$ and CA$ terms following updates to metal price assumptions and discount rates.Narrative Update • Mar 10
TFPM: Higher Metal Price Assumptions And Margins Will Support Future Earnings
Analysts have inched their fair value estimate higher and raised their CA$ price targets on Triple Flag Precious Metals by mid single digit amounts, pointing to updated metal price forecasts and stronger margin assumptions as key drivers behind the change. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Triple Flag Precious Metals centers on a cluster of price target revisions, with several firms adjusting their models to reflect updated metal price assumptions and margin expectations.Narrative Update • Feb 24
TFPM: Higher Metals Exposure And Buybacks Will Support Future Earnings Power
The analyst price target for Triple Flag Precious Metals has increased by CA$7 to reflect updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E, consistent with a series of recent target increases from several research firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show a series of higher price targets for Triple Flag Precious Metals, with individual moves ranging from C$1 to C$8 and US$6 to US$9.Narrative Update • Feb 10
TFPM: Higher Metals Forecasts And Buybacks Will Support Future Earnings Profile
Analysts have lifted their price targets on Triple Flag Precious Metals, supporting a higher fair value estimate of $61.83 from $57.37 as they factor in updated discount rates, modestly adjusted revenue growth, higher profit margin assumptions, and a slightly higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has focused on higher price targets for Triple Flag Precious Metals, framed around refreshed forecasts for metals and mining names and updated assumptions on valuation multiples, margins, and revenue trajectories.Narrative Update • Jan 26
TFPM: Refreshed Metal Forecasts And Buybacks Will Shape Future Earnings Balance
Narrative Update: Triple Flag Precious Metals The updated analyst price target for Triple Flag Precious Metals has moved higher to reflect a refreshed fair value of about 57.37. Analysts point to revised commodity forecasts and adjustments to key inputs such as the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions, as seen in recent target increases from several firms.Narrative Update • Jan 12
TFPM: Higher Precious Metal Forecasts Will Shape Future Buybacks And Earnings Balance
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Triple Flag Precious Metals higher to about $53.35, up from roughly $52.52, citing refreshed price targets and updated commodity forecasts across broader North American metals and mining coverage. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Triple Flag Precious Metals has centered on refreshed price targets and updated commodity assumptions, giving you a clearer sense of what is driving the revised fair value estimate.Narrative Update • Dec 25
TFPM: Higher Precious Metal Prices Will Shape Future Buyback And Earnings Balance
Analysts have nudged their price targets for Triple Flag Precious Metals modestly higher, from about $51.63 to $52.52, citing refreshed commodity price forecasts, resilient precious metals demand despite a challenging macro backdrop, and valuation support following recent sector-wide target increases. Analyst Commentary Street research on Triple Flag Precious Metals reflects a predominantly constructive stance on the company, with most recent actions pointing to higher valuation expectations supported by upgraded commodity price forecasts and a robust outlook for precious metals.Narrative Update • Dec 11
TFPM: Higher Precious Metal Prices Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward Ahead
Analysts have nudged their price target on Triple Flag Precious Metals modestly higher, to the mid to high 30 dollar range from the low to mid 30s, reflecting refreshed metals price forecasts, stronger anticipated revenue growth, and slightly richer future valuation multiples despite a marginally higher discount rate and some pressure on long run profit margins. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research presents a generally constructive view on Triple Flag Precious Metals, with several bullish analysts lifting their price targets meaningfully as they recalibrate metals price decks and growth expectations, while at least one more cautious voice is flagging valuation stretch following the stock's strong run.Analysis Article • Dec 08
Triple Flag Precious Metals (TSE:TFPM) Could Easily Take On More Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Narrative Update • Nov 26
TFPM: Higher Projected Gold Prices Will Drive Bullish Momentum Ahead
Analysts have increased their price targets for Triple Flag Precious Metals, with recent updates reflecting higher gold and silver price forecasts and an improved growth outlook. Expectations have been raised by as much as C$16 per share.Analysis Article • Nov 14
Additional Considerations Required While Assessing Triple Flag Precious Metals' (TSE:TFPM) Strong Earnings
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. ( TSE:TFPM ) announced strong profits, but the stock was stagnant. Our analysis...Analysis Article • Nov 07
Results: Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts
The third-quarter results for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. ( TSE:TFPM ) were released last week, making it a good...Narrative Update • Nov 07
TFPM: Higher Gold And Silver Prices Will Drive Earnings Momentum
Analysts have raised their price target for Triple Flag Precious Metals, increasing the estimated fair value by approximately $1.25 per share. This adjustment is driven by upward revisions to gold and silver price forecasts, despite more conservative growth and margin assumptions.Narrative Update • Oct 23
Analyst Commentary Drives Higher Valuation for Triple Flag Precious Metals Amid Strong Gold Outlook
The analyst price target for Triple Flag Precious Metals has been raised significantly, with an updated fair value climbing from approximately $44.55 to $50.68. Analysts anticipate higher future gold and silver prices and stronger long-term profitability.Narrative Update • Oct 09
Multiple Royalty Deals Will Fuel Future Precious Metals Expansion
Analysts have increased their average price target for Triple Flag Precious Metals by approximately C$2.50. This adjustment reflects improved revenue growth forecasts and higher profit margins.Narrative Update • Sep 25
Multiple Royalty Deals Will Fuel Future Precious Metals Expansion
Triple Flag Precious Metals' consensus price target has risen to CA$42.07, reflecting stronger operating results, higher gold price assumptions, enhanced cash flow prospects from successful portfolio integration, and improved balance sheet strength. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite stronger-than-expected quarterly operating results and improved production guidance across key royalty and streaming assets.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Multiple Royalty Deals Will Fuel Future Precious Metals Expansion
Analysts slightly raised Triple Flag Precious Metals’ price target to CA$41.05 amid confidence in its strong execution and long-term growth outlook, partially offset by valuation concerns after a 60% YTD share rally. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts see continued production growth and robust medium- to long-term outlook for Triple Flag’s royalty and streaming portfolio.New Narrative • May 09
Acquisitions And Projects Will Expand Nevada And Peru Mining Operations
Strategic acquisitions such as Orogen Royalties bolster revenue growth through valuable gold and silver projects and appear poised to enhance future production potential.Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 563 | 409 | 430 | 443 | 3 |
| 12/31/2027 | 632 | 457 | 413 | 513 | 5 |
| 12/31/2026 | 551 | 405 | 281 | 452 | 5 |
| 3/31/2026 | 453 | 311 | 175 | 360 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 389 | 240 | 94 | 313 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 344 | 204 | 68 | 287 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 324 | 172 | 146 | 267 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 294 | 5 | 121 | 240 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 269 | -23 | 156 | 214 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 247 | -55 | 123 | 188 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 222 | -90 | 132 | 163 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 211 | 37 | 108 | 154 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 204 | 36 | -37 | 154 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 196 | 42 | -68 | 153 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 181 | 61 | -59 | 142 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 164 | 56 | -58 | 131 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 152 | 55 | 66 | 118 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 145 | 53 | 91 | 111 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 148 | 45 | 95 | 115 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 153 | 53 | 92 | 118 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 150 | 46 | 69 | 120 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 155 | 86 | 75 | 122 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 143 | 90 | -489 | 112 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 129 | 81 | -498 | 101 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 113 | 56 | -645 | 84 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 88 | 3 | -673 | 63 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 59 | -41 | N/A | 40 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 57 | -54 | N/A | 37 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 43 | -1 | N/A | 28 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 41 | -29 | N/A | 27 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: TFPM's forecast earnings growth (13.2% per year) is above the savings rate (3%).
Earnings vs Market: TFPM's earnings (13.2% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market (10.8% per year).
High Growth Earnings: TFPM's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: TFPM's revenue (9.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market (4.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: TFPM's revenue (9.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: TFPM's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.6%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/20 12:47 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/20 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is covered by 15 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Rene Cartier | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Brian Quast | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Lawson Winder | BofA Global Research |