Results: Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

The third-quarter results for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TSE:TFPM) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were US$93m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.30, an impressive 43% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Triple Flag Precious Metals' five analysts is for revenues of US$407.9m in 2026. This would reflect a meaningful 19% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 22% to US$1.21. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$399.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.11 in 2026. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Triple Flag Precious Metals

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of CA$51.94, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Triple Flag Precious Metals at CA$65.93 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$44.95. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Triple Flag Precious Metals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 22% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 18% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Triple Flag Precious Metals.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Triple Flag Precious Metals' earnings potential next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$51.94, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Triple Flag Precious Metals analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Triple Flag Precious Metals that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.