Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.

TSX:TFPM Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$4.7b

Triple Flag Precious Metals Valuation

Is TFPM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TFPM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TFPM (CA$23.24) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$38.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TFPM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TFPM?

Key metric: As TFPM is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for TFPM. This is calculated by dividing TFPM's market cap by their current revenue.
What is TFPM's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio13.6x
SalesUS$246.52m
Market CapUS$3.35b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does TFPM's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for TFPM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.1x
IMG IAMGOLD
2.2x23.1%CA$4.6b
ELD Eldorado Gold
2.8x19.8%CA$4.7b
OR Osisko Gold Royalties
21.2x21.7%CA$5.2b
BTO B2Gold
2x16.3%CA$5.3b
TFPM Triple Flag Precious Metals
13.6x12.8%CA$4.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: TFPM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.6x) compared to the peer average (7.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does TFPM's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

84 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
LUN Lundin Mining
1.9x4.4%US$7.85b
BTO B2Gold
2x16.3%US$3.81b
HBM Hudbay Minerals
1.8x4.9%US$3.59b
STLC Stelco Holdings
1.3x-0.1%US$2.66b
TFPM 13.6xIndustry Avg. 3.0xNo. of Companies84PS0816243240+
84 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: TFPM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.6x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TFPM's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TFPM PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio13.6x
Fair PS Ratio9.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: TFPM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (9.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TFPM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$23.24
CA$28.02
+20.6%
14.9%CA$34.22CA$20.20n/a9
Nov ’25CA$23.78
CA$27.84
+17.1%
15.4%CA$34.26CA$20.02n/a9
Oct ’25CA$22.04
CA$27.40
+24.3%
11.6%CA$33.99CA$21.71n/a9
Sep ’25CA$22.13
CA$27.26
+23.2%
11.6%CA$34.01CA$21.90n/a9
Aug ’25CA$21.14
CA$27.30
+29.1%
11.5%CA$34.08CA$22.29n/a9
Jul ’25CA$21.22
CA$26.60
+25.4%
10.6%CA$31.99CA$22.01n/a9
Jun ’25CA$22.51
CA$26.50
+17.7%
10.2%CA$31.83CA$21.92n/a9
May ’25CA$22.33
CA$25.99
+16.4%
11.0%CA$31.91CA$21.98n/a9
Apr ’25CA$20.01
CA$24.03
+20.1%
12.3%CA$30.93CA$21.16n/a9
Mar ’25CA$17.45
CA$23.93
+37.1%
12.7%CA$31.09CA$21.06n/a9
Feb ’25CA$17.53
CA$23.79
+35.7%
11.5%CA$29.96CA$20.90n/a9
Jan ’25CA$17.64
CA$23.40
+32.6%
11.9%CA$30.00CA$20.63n/a9
Dec ’24CA$18.74
CA$23.48
+25.3%
11.6%CA$29.64CA$20.10n/a9
Nov ’24CA$17.76
CA$24.34
+37.0%
11.5%CA$29.97CA$20.48CA$23.789
Oct ’24CA$17.79
CA$24.38
+37.1%
10.9%CA$30.05CA$21.46CA$22.049
Sep ’24CA$18.62
CA$24.55
+31.9%
10.5%CA$30.45CA$21.50CA$22.1310
Aug ’24CA$17.51
CA$24.12
+37.7%
11.5%CA$30.05CA$20.93CA$21.1410
Jul ’24CA$18.23
CA$24.49
+34.3%
8.2%CA$28.21CA$21.31CA$21.2210
Jun ’24CA$19.19
CA$25.13
+31.0%
7.7%CA$28.28CA$21.94CA$22.5111
May ’24CA$22.00
CA$24.94
+13.4%
8.4%CA$28.34CA$21.80CA$22.3311
Apr ’24CA$20.13
CA$22.26
+10.6%
6.5%CA$25.78CA$19.92CA$20.019
Mar ’24CA$18.89
CA$22.14
+17.2%
6.2%CA$25.79CA$20.19CA$17.4510
Feb ’24CA$18.18
CA$22.03
+21.2%
7.9%CA$25.25CA$19.02CA$17.5310
Jan ’24CA$18.75
CA$20.99
+12.0%
11.0%CA$25.69CA$17.96CA$17.648
Dec ’23CA$18.27
CA$20.58
+12.6%
10.8%CA$25.52CA$17.86CA$18.748
Nov ’23CA$15.48
CA$20.79
+34.3%
9.5%CA$25.88CA$17.98CA$17.7610

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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