Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.

TSX:TFPM Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$4.9b

Triple Flag Precious Metals Valuation

Is TFPM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TFPM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
CA$42.18
Fair Value
43.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: TFPM (CA$24.06) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$42.18)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TFPM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TFPM?

Key metric: As TFPM is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for TFPM. This is calculated by dividing TFPM's market cap by their current revenue.
What is TFPM's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio13.7x
SalesUS$246.52m
Market CapUS$3.39b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does TFPM's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for TFPM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7x
IMG IAMGOLD
2.5x24.2%CA$5.3b
ELD Eldorado Gold
2.4x21.1%CA$4.6b
BTO B2Gold
1.7x15.2%CA$4.8b
OR Osisko Gold Royalties
21.2x19.2%CA$5.2b
TFPM Triple Flag Precious Metals
13.7x10.4%CA$4.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: TFPM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.7x) compared to the peer average (7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does TFPM's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

85 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TECK.B Teck Resources
1.9x-9.1%US$21.76b
LUN Lundin Mining
1.7x-4.9%US$7.17b
HBM Hudbay Minerals
1.7x3.9%US$3.48b
BTO B2Gold
1.7x15.2%US$3.36b
TFPM 13.7xIndustry Avg. 3.0xNo. of Companies85PS0816243240+
85 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: TFPM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.7x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TFPM's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TFPM PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio13.7x
Fair PS Ratio7.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: TFPM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TFPM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$24.06
CA$29.09
+20.9%
9.8%CA$33.99CA$23.03n/a9
Jan ’26CA$21.60
CA$29.56
+36.9%
10.5%CA$34.11CA$23.12n/a9
Dec ’25CA$23.22
CA$29.16
+25.6%
10.9%CA$33.98CA$22.53n/a9
Nov ’25CA$23.78
CA$27.83
+17.0%
15.4%CA$34.26CA$19.99n/a9
Oct ’25CA$22.04
CA$27.40
+24.3%
11.6%CA$33.99CA$21.71n/a9
Sep ’25CA$22.13
CA$27.26
+23.2%
11.6%CA$34.01CA$21.90n/a9
Aug ’25CA$21.14
CA$27.30
+29.1%
11.5%CA$34.08CA$22.29n/a9
Jul ’25CA$21.22
CA$26.60
+25.4%
10.6%CA$31.99CA$22.01n/a9
Jun ’25CA$22.51
CA$26.50
+17.7%
10.2%CA$31.83CA$21.92n/a9
May ’25CA$22.33
CA$25.99
+16.4%
11.0%CA$31.91CA$21.98n/a9
Apr ’25CA$20.01
CA$24.03
+20.1%
12.3%CA$30.93CA$21.16n/a9
Mar ’25CA$17.45
CA$23.93
+37.1%
12.7%CA$31.09CA$21.06n/a9
Feb ’25CA$17.53
CA$23.79
+35.7%
11.5%CA$29.96CA$20.90CA$23.249
Jan ’25CA$17.64
CA$23.40
+32.6%
11.9%CA$30.00CA$20.63CA$21.609
Dec ’24CA$18.74
CA$23.48
+25.3%
11.6%CA$29.64CA$20.10CA$23.229
Nov ’24CA$17.76
CA$24.34
+37.0%
11.5%CA$29.97CA$20.48CA$23.789
Oct ’24CA$17.79
CA$24.38
+37.1%
10.9%CA$30.05CA$21.46CA$22.049
Sep ’24CA$18.62
CA$24.55
+31.9%
10.5%CA$30.45CA$21.50CA$22.1310
Aug ’24CA$17.51
CA$24.12
+37.7%
11.5%CA$30.05CA$20.93CA$21.1410
Jul ’24CA$18.23
CA$24.49
+34.3%
8.2%CA$28.21CA$21.31CA$21.2210
Jun ’24CA$19.19
CA$25.13
+31.0%
7.7%CA$28.28CA$21.94CA$22.5111
May ’24CA$22.00
CA$24.94
+13.4%
8.4%CA$28.34CA$21.80CA$22.3311
Apr ’24CA$20.13
CA$22.26
+10.6%
6.5%CA$25.78CA$19.92CA$20.019
Mar ’24CA$18.89
CA$22.14
+17.2%
6.2%CA$25.79CA$20.19CA$17.4510
Feb ’24CA$18.18
CA$22.03
+21.2%
7.9%CA$25.25CA$19.02CA$17.5310
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 9 Analysts
CA$29.09
Fair Value
17.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/06 07:41
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/06 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is covered by 18 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jackie PrzybylowskiBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Brian QuastBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Lawson WinderBofA Global Research