New Gold Inc.

TSX:NGD Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$4.2b

New Gold Valuation

Is NGD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NGD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
CA$31.25
Fair Value
81.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
3
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: NGD (CA$5.71) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$31.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NGD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NGD?

Key metric: As NGD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NGD. This is calculated by dividing NGD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NGD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio25.1x
EarningsUS$129.40m
Market CapUS$2.99b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NGD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NGD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average31.3x
OGC OceanaGold
9.9x19.68%CA$3.9b
EQX Equinox Gold
9.6x7.13%CA$3.8b
SSL Sandstorm Gold
85.1xn/aCA$3.4b
TXG Torex Gold Resources
20.4x28.58%CA$3.6b
NGD New Gold
25.1x47.52%CA$4.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NGD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x) compared to the peer average (31.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NGD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

24 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
STGO Steppe Gold
2.5xn/aUS$154.44m
DC.A Dundee
2.6xn/aUS$137.54m
SCZ Santacruz Silver Mining
1xn/aUS$132.98m
LUC Lucara Diamond
1.6x-93.02%US$79.75m
NGD 25.1xIndustry Avg. 13.2xNo. of Companies24PE01224364860+
24 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NGD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (13.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NGD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NGD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25.1x
Fair PE Ratio42.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NGD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NGD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$5.71
CA$6.99
+22.38%
9.15%CA$7.86CA$6.35n/a3
May ’26CA$5.32
CA$6.50
+22.09%
2.95%CA$6.73CA$6.26n/a3
Apr ’26CA$5.22
CA$5.98
+14.65%
8.35%CA$6.50CA$5.47n/a4
Mar ’26CA$3.93
CA$5.17
+31.63%
17.82%CA$6.03CA$3.62n/a4
Feb ’26CA$4.39
CA$5.02
+14.27%
16.55%CA$5.75CA$3.62n/a4
Jan ’26CA$3.59
CA$4.98
+38.61%
16.08%CA$5.73CA$3.64n/a4
Dec ’25CA$3.90
CA$4.87
+24.95%
14.69%CA$5.50CA$3.67n/a4
Nov ’25CA$3.86
CA$4.77
+23.67%
17.60%CA$5.50CA$3.35n/a4
Oct ’25CA$4.00
CA$4.38
+9.62%
17.58%CA$5.51CA$3.35n/a4
Sep ’25CA$3.40
CA$3.91
+14.94%
20.60%CA$4.50CA$2.53n/a4
Aug ’25CA$3.18
CA$3.85
+20.98%
19.20%CA$4.51CA$2.61n/a4
Jul ’25CA$2.70
CA$2.93
+8.34%
37.03%CA$4.25CA$1.03n/a5
Jun ’25CA$2.98
CA$2.74
-8.12%
34.27%CA$3.50CA$1.03n/a5
May ’25CA$2.61
CA$2.65
+1.42%
29.61%CA$3.25CA$1.04CA$5.326
Apr ’25CA$2.30
CA$2.07
-9.89%
26.53%CA$2.75CA$1.02CA$5.226
Mar ’25CA$1.82
CA$2.07
+13.78%
26.53%CA$2.75CA$1.02CA$3.936
Feb ’25CA$1.74
CA$2.13
+22.24%
28.61%CA$3.00CA$1.01CA$4.396
Jan ’25CA$1.92
CA$1.98
+3.07%
26.54%CA$2.57CA$1.01CA$3.596
Dec ’24CA$2.05
CA$2.00
-2.50%
26.47%CA$2.60CA$1.02CA$3.906
Nov ’24CA$1.64
CA$1.99
+21.18%
28.33%CA$2.65CA$1.04CA$3.866
Oct ’24CA$1.25
CA$1.94
+54.94%
30.42%CA$2.76CA$1.02CA$4.006
Sep ’24CA$1.42
CA$1.95
+37.19%
30.44%CA$2.78CA$1.02CA$3.406
Aug ’24CA$1.48
CA$1.91
+29.11%
30.68%CA$2.74CA$0.99CA$3.186
Jul ’24CA$1.44
CA$1.92
+33.42%
30.85%CA$2.76CA$1.00CA$2.706
Jun ’24CA$1.68
CA$1.95
+15.95%
30.13%CA$2.74CA$1.02CA$2.986
May ’24CA$1.77
CA$1.94
+9.69%
30.31%CA$2.74CA$1.02CA$2.616
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 3 Analysts
CA$6.99
Fair Value
18.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
3
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/20 12:16
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/20 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

New Gold Inc. is covered by 35 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Farooq HamedBarclays
Brian QuastBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Lawson WinderBofA Global Research