OceanaGold Corporation

TSX:OGC Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$2.8b

OceanaGold Valuation

Is OGC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OGC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OGC (CA$3.93) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CA$3.71)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OGC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OGC?

Key metric: As OGC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for OGC. This is calculated by dividing OGC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is OGC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio29x
EarningsUS$66.40m
Market CapUS$1.93b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OGC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for OGC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average43.7x
NGD New Gold
97.9x62.3%CA$2.9b
SSL Sandstorm Gold
44.9x20.5%CA$2.3b
TXG Torex Gold Resources
13.7x42.8%CA$2.5b
KNT K92 Mining
18.3x29.6%CA$2.0b
OGC OceanaGold
29x64.9%CA$2.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: OGC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29x) compared to the peer average (43.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OGC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

37 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SLI Standard Lithium
2.3xn/aUS$246.32m
THX Thor Explorations
2.7x2.5%US$134.68m
APM Andean Precious Metals
2.2x-42.9%US$124.91m
STGO Steppe Gold
2x-11.5%US$110.67m
OGC 29.0xIndustry Avg. 13.1xNo. of Companies37PE01632486480+
37 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OGC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OGC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OGC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio29x
Fair PE Ratio46.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: OGC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (46.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst OGC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$3.93
CA$5.96
+51.6%
9.2%CA$6.87CA$5.05n/a9
Dec ’25CA$4.42
CA$5.84
+32.2%
8.9%CA$6.84CA$5.03n/a9
Nov ’25CA$3.89
CA$5.65
+45.4%
10.9%CA$6.80CA$4.78n/a9
Oct ’25CA$3.83
CA$5.24
+36.9%
6.0%CA$5.78CA$4.75n/a10
Sep ’25CA$3.51
CA$4.98
+42.0%
6.5%CA$5.46CA$4.24n/a10
Aug ’25CA$3.40
CA$5.00
+46.9%
8.2%CA$5.52CA$4.26n/a10
Jul ’25CA$3.14
CA$4.65
+48.1%
7.8%CA$5.02CA$4.01n/a10
Jun ’25CA$3.13
CA$4.57
+46.0%
9.6%CA$4.98CA$3.75n/a10
May ’25CA$3.09
CA$4.45
+44.0%
10.8%CA$5.02CA$3.75n/a10
Apr ’25CA$3.04
CA$3.84
+26.3%
13.0%CA$4.99CA$3.02n/a10
Mar ’25CA$2.44
CA$3.84
+57.4%
13.3%CA$5.00CA$3.01n/a10
Feb ’25CA$2.84
CA$4.04
+42.2%
7.9%CA$4.46CA$3.25n/a9
Jan ’25CA$2.54
CA$3.97
+56.2%
7.4%CA$4.52CA$3.38n/a9
Dec ’24CA$2.47
CA$3.98
+61.3%
6.9%CA$4.46CA$3.44CA$4.429
Nov ’24CA$2.30
CA$4.09
+77.9%
7.8%CA$4.55CA$3.51CA$3.899
Oct ’24CA$2.66
CA$4.43
+66.5%
4.0%CA$4.78CA$4.27CA$3.838
Sep ’24CA$2.91
CA$4.16
+43.0%
12.3%CA$4.83CA$3.05CA$3.519
Aug ’24CA$2.72
CA$4.16
+53.0%
12.7%CA$4.80CA$3.00CA$3.409
Jul ’24CA$2.61
CA$4.10
+57.0%
13.7%CA$5.02CA$2.92CA$3.149
Jun ’24CA$3.04
CA$4.07
+33.9%
12.7%CA$5.00CA$2.99CA$3.139
May ’24CA$3.03
CA$4.04
+33.2%
13.2%CA$5.00CA$3.00CA$3.099
Apr ’24CA$3.35
CA$3.70
+10.3%
9.7%CA$4.23CA$2.98CA$3.049
Mar ’24CA$2.80
CA$3.65
+30.3%
8.6%CA$4.01CA$3.02CA$2.449
Feb ’24CA$2.99
CA$3.65
+22.0%
8.5%CA$3.99CA$2.99CA$2.849
Jan ’24CA$2.58
CA$3.43
+32.9%
14.6%CA$4.52CA$2.52CA$2.5410
Dec ’23CA$2.60
CA$3.38
+30.1%
14.8%CA$4.52CA$2.49CA$2.4710

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 00:29
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

OceanaGold Corporation is covered by 31 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Matthew MurphyBarclays
Brian QuastBMO Capital Markets Equity Research