TFPM: Higher Precious Metal Prices Will Shape Future Buyback And Earnings Balance

Analysts have nudged their price targets for Triple Flag Precious Metals modestly higher, from about $51.63 to $52.52, citing refreshed commodity price forecasts, resilient precious metals demand despite a challenging macro backdrop, and valuation support following recent sector-wide target increases.

Analyst Commentary

Street research on Triple Flag Precious Metals reflects a predominantly constructive stance on the company, with most recent actions pointing to higher valuation expectations supported by upgraded commodity price forecasts and a robust outlook for precious metals.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts have raised their price targets in both U.S. dollar and Canadian dollar terms, signaling increased confidence in Triple Flag's valuation and upside potential versus prior assumptions.
Upward revisions to gold and silver price forecasts, including expectations for substantially higher long term prices, underpin a stronger revenue and cash flow outlook for Triple Flag's royalty and streaming portfolio.
Despite acknowledging a challenging macro backdrop, particularly tied to slower demand in China, optimistic views highlight potential offsets from improving demand trends in the U.S. and Europe, which could support sustained growth in precious metals demand.
Recent sector wide target increases across North American precious metals coverage suggest Triple Flag is benefiting from a more favorable industry backdrop, reinforcing the case for continued execution driven growth and multiple support.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts have shifted to a more neutral stance on the shares after the recent rally, indicating that a portion of the near term upside from improved fundamentals may already be reflected in the current valuation.
Some caution that, while price targets have moved higher, the risk reward profile is less compelling at these levels, with less room for multiple expansion if commodity prices or growth execution fall short of elevated expectations.
The decision to downgrade Triple Flag on valuation grounds underscores sensitivity to further market pullbacks or consolidation periods as investors reassess premium royalty valuations across the sector.

What's in the News

The Board of Directors has authorized a new share buyback plan, providing flexibility for further capital returns to shareholders (Key Developments).
The company has launched a normal course issuer bid to repurchase up to 10,328,075 shares, or 5% of issued share capital, with all repurchased shares to be cancelled and the program running through November 16, 2026 (Key Developments).
An update on the prior buyback shows 692,600 shares repurchased to date for approximately $11.3 million under the November 13, 2024 program, with no additional shares repurchased in the latest quarter (Key Developments).
Management reaffirms 2025 sales guidance of 105,000 to 115,000 gold equivalent ounces, with 84,480 GEOs sold through the first three quarters. This indicates the company remains on track for the full year (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value has risen slightly, moving from CA$51.63 to CA$52.52. This reflects a modest uplift in the intrinsic value estimate.
Discount Rate has increased marginally, from 7.14% to 7.16%, signaling a slightly higher required return embedded in the valuation.
Revenue Growth has fallen significantly, with projected annual growth reduced from about 14.48% to 9.70%. This indicates a more conservative top-line outlook.
Net Profit Margin has decreased meaningfully, from roughly 81.07% to 69.09%. This suggests expectations for lower profitability on future revenues.
Future P/E has risen substantially, climbing from 24.6x to 33.7x, implying a richer valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

New royalty and streaming investments, combined with strong global demand and commodity prices, underpin forward revenue growth and sustainable margins.
Diversification into electrification metals and robust balance sheet enable greater deal-making capacity and position the company for ongoing top-line expansion.
Declining output at key assets, operational risks, reliance on acquisitions, regional concentration, and non-core investments threaten revenue quality, profitability, and future earnings growth.

Catalysts

About Triple Flag Precious Metals

A precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote d’Ivoire, Honduras, Mexico, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Multiple new royalty and streaming investments-including the Arthur Gold project in Nevada, Arcata and Azuca silver mines in Peru, and Johnson Camp copper mine in Arizona-are expected to deliver first revenues in the second half of 2025, underpinning forward growth in revenue and operating cash flow as these assets ramp up.
Ongoing robust global demand for gold and silver, alongside record-high commodity prices, has increased per-share operating cash flow by over 50% year-over-year, supporting margin sustainability and presenting upside to future earnings if macro tailwinds continue.
Secular growth in demand for electrification metals (copper, silver) is expanding Triple Flag's pipeline and revenue diversification, evidenced by recent copper and silver royalty deals, positioning the company to capture additional top-line growth as energy transition trends accelerate.
Embedded exploration and reserve expansion optionality at key assets, such as the resource doubling at Beta Hunt (Fletcher Zone) and continued exploration upside at Arthur and Northparkes, could drive volume growth and prolong cash flow generation, positively impacting both revenue and free cash flow in the medium to long term.
A strong balance sheet with zero debt and nearly $1 billion in available liquidity provides capacity for additional accretive acquisitions, allowing the company to capitalize on an expanding deal pipeline as traditional mine finance becomes more challenging, supporting future revenue and EBITDA growth.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Earnings and Revenue Growth

Triple Flag Precious Metals Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Triple Flag Precious Metals's revenue will grow by 6.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 53.1% today to 78.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $311.4 million (and earnings per share of $1.47) by about September 2028, up from $172.2 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 25.6x on those 2028 earnings, down from 32.7x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the CA Metals and Mining industry at 18.0x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.51% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.42%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The upcoming decline in production at key assets-such as Northparkes due to depletion of high-grade stockpiles and Cerro Lindo as its stream rate steps down-risks causing a drop in Triple Flag's gold equivalent ounce (GEO) sales, which could pressure revenue and earnings in future years if new assets or offsets fail to fully compensate for this loss.
Exposure to operator-specific risks and legal disputes, exemplified by the ongoing payment arrears and delivery halt with Steppe Gold following its acquisition by Boroo, could negatively impact expected cash flows from streams/royalties and introduce revenue unpredictability for the company.
Increased reliance on reinvestment and acquisitions to sustain growth, in the context of a "full" deal pipeline but rising competition for high-quality precious metals royalties/streams, raises the risk of margin compression (from higher entry multiples or less attractive deal terms), potentially impacting long-term net margins and earnings growth.
The company's portfolio remains highly concentrated in Australia and the Americas, which, while generally mining-friendly, could expose Triple Flag to jurisdiction-specific operational, regulatory, or tax changes that may affect mining activity and profitability in those regions, thereby impacting future revenue streams.
The inclusion of opportunistic, non-core acquisitions such as lithium and incremental copper exposure (e.g., Johnson Camp mine) diverges from the stated precious metals focus, and may signal difficulties in sourcing pure-play precious metal deals; this could lead to dilution of the company's financial performance and investor appeal, ultimately affecting both revenue quality and valuation multiples.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$41.055 for Triple Flag Precious Metals based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of CA$45.57, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just CA$34.76.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $395.4 million, earnings will come to $311.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 25.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.4%.
Given the current share price of CA$37.65, the analyst price target of CA$41.05 is 8.3% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analyst Commentary Drives Higher Valuation for Triple Flag Precious Metals Amid Strong Gold Outlook

TFPM: Higher Precious Metal Prices Will Shape Future Buyback And Earnings Balance