Has Nutrien’s 28% Rally in 2025 Already Reflected Its Improving Fertilizer Outlook?

• Wondering if Nutrien is still a smart buy after its recent run, or if most of the upside is already priced in? This breakdown will help you decide whether the stock offers genuine value or just looks good on the surface.
• After a strong year to date with the share price up about 28.7% and 28.4% over the last 12 months, Nutrien has quietly shifted from a laggard over 3 years to a name investors are watching more closely again.
• That renewed interest has been helped by ongoing chatter around global fertilizer demand, supply tightness in key nutrients and the strategic importance of crop inputs for food security worldwide. These factors collectively support a more constructive outlook for pricing. At the same time, sentiment has been helped by management actions around disciplined capital allocation and portfolio positioning, which investors see as important for turning cyclical tailwinds into more durable returns.
• On our checks Nutrien scores a solid 5/6 valuation score, suggesting the stock screens as undervalued on most metrics. Next we will unpack those different valuation approaches before ending with a more holistic way to think about what the market may be missing.

Nutrien delivered 28.4% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Chemicals industry.

Approach 1: Nutrien Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow model takes Nutrien’s future cash flow projections and discounts them back into today’s dollars, giving an estimate of what the entire business is worth right now.

Nutrien generated about $1.93 billion of free cash flow over the last twelve months. Analysts and extrapolated estimates see free cash flow staying above the $2.1 billion mark over the coming decade, with projections around $2.23 billion by 2029 based on a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model. Simply Wall St uses detailed forecasts for the next few years and then extends those trends further out to reflect a maturing business rather than assuming aggressive, perpetual growth.

When those cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of roughly $115.59 per share. Compared with the current share price, this implies Nutrien trades at about a 27.3% discount to its estimated fair value, suggesting the market is still pricing the stock conservatively relative to its cash generation potential.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Nutrien is undervalued by 27.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 905 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Nutrien.

Approach 2: Nutrien Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Nutrien, the price to earnings ratio is a useful way to see how much investors are paying for each dollar of current earnings. In general, companies with stronger, more reliable growth and lower perceived risk tend to justify a higher PE multiple, while slower growing or riskier names typically deserve a lower one.

Nutrien currently trades on about 16.3x earnings, which is below both the Chemicals industry average of roughly 20.9x and the broader peer group at about 23.0x. To go a step further, Simply Wall St calculates a proprietary Fair Ratio of 18.2x, which is the PE multiple Nutrien would reasonably command given its earnings growth profile, margins, industry positioning, market cap and risk factors.

This Fair Ratio is more informative than a simple comparison to peers or the industry, because it adjusts for company specific drivers rather than assuming every fertilizer or chemicals stock should trade at the same level. With Nutrien’s current 16.3x sitting below the 18.2x Fair Ratio, the shares appear modestly undervalued on this earnings based lens.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Nutrien Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple framework on Simply Wall St’s Community page where you connect your view of a company’s story to a concrete forecast for its future revenue, earnings and margins. This then flows through to a Fair Value you can compare against today’s share price to decide whether to buy, hold or sell, with that Narrative dynamically updating as new news or earnings arrive. For example, one Nutrien Narrative might lean bullish, assuming long term fertilizer demand, margin expansion and a Fair Value closer to the higher analyst target near CA$96. A more cautious Narrative could focus on regulatory risks, farm income pressures and slower growth, anchoring Fair Value nearer the low end around CA$61. The power of Narratives is that both investors can clearly see how their story, numbers and Fair Value link together, then track over time whether the market price is moving toward or away from their own view.

Do you think there's more to the story for Nutrien? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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