Calian Group Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Calian Group Ltd. (TSE:CGY), which a week ago released some disappointing third-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CA$192m revenue coming in 6.8% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.05 missed the mark badly, arriving some 90% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Calian Group's seven analysts is for revenues of CA$830.1m in 2026. This reflects a decent 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Calian Group is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of CA$1.61 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$858.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$2.15 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Calian Group

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CA$59.14, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Calian Group's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Calian Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$62.00 and the most bearish at CA$58.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Calian Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Calian Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 8.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see a revenue decline of 0.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it's pretty clear that Calian Group is still expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Calian Group. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates that is expected to perform better than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at CA$59.14, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Calian Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Calian Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Calian Group has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.