Is It Too Late To Consider ageas After Its Strong Share Price Run In 2025?

• Wondering if ageas is still good value after a strong run, or if most of the upside is already baked in? You are not alone, and this article will help you size that up calmly.
• The stock is up 21.6% year to date and 27.3% over the last 12 months, even after a modest 1.0% pullback over the past month. This suggests the market has been reassessing its prospects over time.
• Recent news flow around European insurers has focused on tighter capital rules, shifts in interest rate expectations and how well balance sheets can support reliable shareholder returns. All of these factors feed into how investors price ageas today. At the same time, discussions about sector wide consolidation and capital optimisation strategies have kept sentiment for quality names like ageas in the spotlight.
• On our framework ageas scores a 4 out of 6 valuation checks, suggesting it looks reasonably undervalued on several metrics. Next we will unpack those methods, before finishing with an intuitive way to think about what the stock may be worth.

ageas delivered 27.3% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Insurance industry.

Approach 1: ageas Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns model asks a simple question: how much value can ageas create above the minimum return that shareholders require on their capital, and for how long? Instead of focusing on short term earnings swings, it looks at the long run relationship between profitability and the equity invested in the business.

For ageas, the starting point is a Book Value of €42.27 per share and a Stable Book Value projected at €52.11 per share, based on estimates from 5 analysts. On that equity base, the company is expected to generate Stable EPS of €8.04 per share, implying an Average Return on Equity of 15.43%. Against a Cost of Equity of €3.42 per share, this leads to an Excess Return of €4.62 per share, meaning ageas is expected to earn comfortably more than investors require.

Discounting those excess returns over time yields an intrinsic value of about €154.99 per share, implying the stock is roughly 63.0% undervalued relative to its current price. In other words, the market appears to be underpaying for ageas capacity to compound value.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Excess Returns analysis suggests ageas is undervalued by 63.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 904 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for ageas.

Approach 2: ageas Price vs Earnings

For a consistently profitable insurer like ageas, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a natural way to gauge value because it links what you pay directly to the profits the business is generating today. In broad terms, faster growth and lower perceived risk justify a higher PE, while slower growth or more uncertainty usually pull a fair PE down.

ageas currently trades on a PE of about 9.50x, which is below both the Insurance industry average of roughly 11.72x and the broader peer group average near 18.86x. That discount hints at either market caution or an opportunity, depending on how you see its outlook. To refine this, Simply Wall St uses a Fair Ratio, a proprietary estimate of what a reasonable PE should be after adjusting for the company’s earnings growth profile, risk factors, profit margins, industry positioning and market cap.

This Fair Ratio based approach is more robust than simple peer or industry comparisons, because it recognises that not all insurers have the same quality, risk or growth runway. On this framework, ageas actual PE sits below its Fair Ratio, pointing to a market price that does not fully reflect its fundamentals.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1447 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your ageas Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to attach your own story about ageas to the numbers behind its fair value, future revenue, earnings and margins. A Narrative connects what you believe about the business, for example how its strategy, risks and opportunities might play out, to a financial forecast and then to an explicit fair value, so you can clearly see whether you think the stock is mispriced. On Simply Wall St, millions of investors do this through Narratives on the Community page, where it is easy to compare your view of fair value with the current price to decide whether to buy, hold or sell. These Narratives update dynamically when new information like news or earnings is released, so your thesis stays current without extra effort. For example, one ageas Narrative might assume a conservative outlook and arrive at a much lower fair value, while another more optimistic Narrative could project stronger growth and a meaningfully higher fair value instead.

Do you think there's more to the story for ageas? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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