CSL (ASX:CSL) Valuation Check After Robust Five-Year HEMGENIX Gene Therapy Results

CSL (ASX:CSL) has sparked fresh interest after unveiling five year HOPE B trial results for its gene therapy HEMGENIX, showing sustained efficacy and safety that could reshape reimbursement debates, especially in Australia.

See our latest analysis for CSL.

Yet despite a string of positives, from the new Melbourne vaccine facility to the ongoing buy-back and now the standout HEMGENIX data, CSL’s 1 year total shareholder return of around minus 34 percent and steep year to date share price decline suggest sentiment is still rebuilding rather than roaring back.

If this kind of long term healthcare story appeals, it is worth exploring other opportunities across healthcare stocks to see which names the market might be mispricing next.

With earnings still growing, a hefty discount to analyst targets and sentiment clearly bruised, does CSL’s slump signal that the market has overshot on pessimism, or is it calmly pricing in years of slower, steadier growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 26.8% Undervalued

With CSL closing at A$178.81 against a narrative fair value near A$244, the valuation case leans heavily on medium term earnings expansion.

The analysts have a consensus price target of A$284.792 for CSL based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of A$316.67, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just A$225.54.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue climb, margin rebuild and future earnings multiple are built into that number? The underlying assumptions may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $244.20 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slower than expected uptake of new therapies and ongoing cost pressures from plasma collection could easily cap margins and undermine that recovery story.

Find out about the key risks to this CSL narrative.

Build Your Own CSL Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can quickly build a personalised CSL view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding CSL.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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