Stock Analysis

BHP Group (ASX:BHP) Ticks All The Boxes When It Comes To Earnings Growth

ASX:BHP
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The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can manage to find investors. Unfortunately, these high risk investments often have little probability of ever paying off, and many investors pay a price to learn their lesson. A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up.

In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like BHP Group (ASX:BHP), which has not only revenues, but also profits. While profit isn't the sole metric that should be considered when investing, it's worth recognising businesses that can consistently produce it.

View our latest analysis for BHP Group

How Fast Is BHP Group Growing?

The market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long term, so you'd expect share price to follow earnings per share (EPS) outcomes eventually. So it makes sense that experienced investors pay close attention to company EPS when undertaking investment research. Shareholders will be happy to know that BHP Group's EPS has grown 24% each year, compound, over three years. If growth like this continues on into the future, then shareholders will have plenty to smile about.

One way to double-check a company's growth is to look at how its revenue, and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins are changing. To cut to the chase BHP Group's EBIT margins dropped last year, and so did its revenue. That will not make it easy to grow profits, to say the least.

In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. Click on the chart to see the exact numbers.

earnings-and-revenue-history
ASX:BHP Earnings and Revenue History August 2nd 2023

Of course the knack is to find stocks that have their best days in the future, not in the past. You could base your opinion on past performance, of course, but you may also want to check this interactive graph of professional analyst EPS forecasts for BHP Group.

Are BHP Group Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

Investors are always searching for a vote of confidence in the companies they hold and insider buying is one of the key indicators for optimism on the market. This view is based on the possibility that stock purchases signal bullishness on behalf of the buyer. However, small purchases are not always indicative of conviction, and insiders don't always get it right.

Belief in the company remains high for insiders as there hasn't been a single share sold by the management or company board members. But the real excitement comes from the US$250k that Independent Non-Executive Chairman of the Board Ken MacKenzie spent buying shares (at an average price of about US$40.98). Purchases like this clue us in to the to the faith management has in the business' future.

On top of the insider buying, it's good to see that BHP Group insiders have a valuable investment in the business. To be specific, they have US$64m worth of shares. This considerable investment should help drive long-term value in the business. While their ownership only accounts for 0.03%, this is still a considerable amount at stake to encourage the business to maintain a strategy that will deliver value to shareholders.

Does BHP Group Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

If you believe that share price follows earnings per share you should definitely be delving further into BHP Group's strong EPS growth. Better still, insiders own a large chunk of the company and one has even been buying more shares. These things considered, this is one stock worth watching. We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for BHP Group (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to be mindful of.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. So if you like the sound of BHP Group, you'll probably love this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether BHP Group is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.