BHP Group Limited

ASX:BHP Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$306.0b

BHP Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

BHP Group's revenue is forecast to decline at 0.04% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 7.2% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 5.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 20.7% in 3 years.

Key information

7.2%

Earnings growth rate

5.81%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining earnings growth12.2%
Revenue growth rate-0.03%
Future return on equity20.69%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated16 Sep 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Sep 17

BHP: Potash Overruns And Impairment Will Continue To Depress Project Returns

Analysts nudged their fair value estimate for BHP Group higher to A$44.75 from A$43.59, reflecting recent price target revisions in the A$66 range and updated assumptions that include a higher discount rate, softer revenue growth and margin expectations, and a higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research on BHP Group points to a mixed but generally cautious tone, even as some firms maintain neutral or positive ratings.
Narrative Update • Sep 03

BHP: Copper Pivot And Jansen Risks Will Shape Future Earnings Mix

BHP Group's analyst fair value has shifted from A$82.27 to A$67.53, with analysts pointing to moderated revenue growth assumptions, a slightly higher discount rate, and a lower future P/E multiple that is partly balanced by firmer profit margin forecasts. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on BHP Group shows a mix of cautious adjustments and renewed optimism, with several large houses reassessing valuation levels in light of project updates and revised assumptions.
Narrative Update • Aug 03

BHP: Port Hedland Strike Risk Will Shape Future Iron Ore Upside

BHP Group's updated analyst price target has been revised to A$82.27 from A$57.64, reflecting a higher implied P/E multiple, analyst adjustments for lower revenue growth and profit margin expectations, and recent model updates following Jansen project capex and impairment news. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on BHP Group shows a mix of cautious revisions and more upbeat reassessments, with price targets clustered across both London and Australian listings.
Narrative Update • Jul 20

BHP: Potash Overruns And Impairment Will Restrain Future Project Returns

The analyst fair value estimate for BHP Group has been raised from A$40.94 to A$43.59 as analysts recalibrate their models following a series of mixed price target revisions that reflect updated views on project capex, impairment charges, and sector risk. Analyst Commentary Recent research on BHP Group shows a mix of cautious and supportive views, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings as new information on project spending, impairments, and macro risks has emerged.
New Narrative • Jul 11

Does BHP Have the Metal? More Ore in Store?

At A$47.93 per share, BHP Group (ASX: BHP) appears reasonably valued based on its current operating performance. For the six months to 31 December 2025, BHP reported revenue of US$27.9 billion, underlying EBITDA of US$15.5 billion and underlying attributable profit of US$6.2 billion, with an underlying EBITDA margin of 58.4%.
Narrative Update • Jul 06

BHP: Potash Cost Overruns And Impairment Will Constrain Future Upside

The analyst fair value estimate for BHP Group has been raised from A$38.25 to A$40.94. This change reflects updated assumptions around a slightly less severe revenue decline, a higher profit margin, and a lower future P/E, alongside mixed but generally supportive Street price target revisions in recent months.
Narrative Update • Jun 22

BHP: Copper Strength And Jansen Risks Will Shape Fairly Valued Outlook

The analyst price target for BHP Group has been revised higher to A$61.02 from A$55.62, as analysts incorporate updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and a slightly lower discount rate, despite mixed reactions to the Jansen Potash capex increase and related impairment. Analyst Commentary Recent research on BHP Group shows a split view, with some bullish analysts focusing on long term growth optionality and others highlighting execution risks and valuation constraints after the Jansen Potash updates.
Analysis Article • Jun 17

BHP Group (ASX:BHP) Shares Could Be 46% Undervalued After Copper Growth News

BHP Group (ASX:BHP) is back in focus after a series of copper centric developments, including regulatory approval for large Argentine projects and changes to Australian mining agreements, which intersect with rising electrification demand and strong recent copper earnings contributions. See our latest analysis for BHP Group. Against this backdrop of copper focused news, BHP Group’s share price has moved to A$65.19, with strong recent momentum reflected in a 30.15% 90 day share price return...
Narrative Update • Jun 05

BHP: Copper Reliance And China Slowdown Will Drive Future Downside Risk

BHP Group's refreshed fair value estimate has moved from A$53.40 to A$55.62 as analysts factor in updated price targets, modestly higher projected revenue growth, slightly firmer profit margins, and a revised future P/E assumption alongside a small uptick in the discount rate. Analyst Commentary Recent research on BHP Group points to a mixed but generally balanced stance, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings as they reassess valuation and macro risks.
Narrative Update • May 04

BHP: Commodity Mix And China Ties Will Shape Future Fairly Valued Outlook

BHP Group's analyst price target has moved higher to A$53.40 from A$52.50, as analysts factor in slightly stronger revenue growth assumptions along with a modestly higher future P/E, partly supported by recent target increases from major brokers. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on BHP Group shows a mix of optimism and caution, with several price target revisions and rating changes reflecting different views on valuation, earnings power and macro exposure.
Narrative Update • Apr 19

BHP: Commodity Mix And China Stabilization Will Shape Future Fairly Valued Outlook

The analyst fair value estimate for BHP Group has shifted slightly lower to A$52.50 from A$53.37, as analysts factor in updated assumptions for higher long term revenue growth, a modestly lower profit margin, a slightly higher discount rate, and a higher future P/E multiple following a mix of recent price target increases and trims across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research on BHP Group has been mixed, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets while more cautious analysts have trimmed theirs or maintained restrained views.
Narrative Update • Apr 05

BHP: Commodity Mix And China Stabilization Will Shape Fairly Valued Outlook

The analyst fair value estimate for BHP Group has increased modestly to A$53.37 from A$52.50, reflecting updated assumptions about slightly stronger revenue growth and a refreshed set of mixed but generally constructive price targets from recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on BHP Group shows a mix of optimism on long term prospects and caution around valuation and execution risks, which helps explain the modest adjustment in the fair value estimate.
Narrative Update • Mar 22

BHP: Commodity Cycles And China Recovery Will Shape Fairly Valued Outlook

Analysts have adjusted the BHP Group fair value estimate slightly higher to A$52.50. This reflects refreshed price targets that balance updated revenue and margin assumptions with mixed views on commodity exposure and valuation.
New Narrative • Mar 21

BHP’s value is durability today (iron ore) and optionality tomorrow (copper + potash). Execution and macro demand are the swing factors.

Catalysts 1) Copper demand: electrification + AI-driven power infrastructure The market often frames copper as an “energy transition” commodity, but I see incremental demand coming from AI/data-center power density and grid capex (transmission, distribution, redundancy). This supports a structurally tighter copper market over time.
Narrative Update • Mar 05

BHP: Commodity Cycles And China Recovery Will Shape Future Returns

The analyst fair value estimate for BHP Group has been adjusted slightly higher to A$51.98 from A$51.72. This change reflects a series of recent price target increases across the Street as analysts factor in updated assumptions for revenue growth, margins and valuation multiples.
Narrative Update • Feb 19

BHP: Commodity Cycles And Mega Deals Will Shape Future Returns

Analysts have lifted their BHP Group price target by A$3.54. The change is supported by model updates that incorporate a higher fair value estimate, a small adjustment to the discount rate, a slightly lower revenue growth assumption, a modestly higher profit margin, and a marginally higher future P/E multiple.
New Narrative • Feb 18

Copper And Potash Expansion Will Expose Long Term Earnings And Margin Vulnerabilities

Catalysts About BHP Group BHP Group is a diversified mining company with large operations in copper, iron ore, steelmaking coal, uranium, gold and potash. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narrative Update • Feb 05

BHP: Commodity Cycles Legal Risks And Mega Deals Will Shape Future Performance

Analysts nudged their BHP Group price targets higher, with the modelled fair value moving from about A$48.99 to A$48.17 as they factored in updated revenue growth, profit margin, P/E and discount rate assumptions aligned with the latest Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around BHP Group has been relatively limited in volume, but the available signals point to modest valuation adjustments rather than wholesale changes in conviction.
Narrative Update • Jan 22

BHP: Commodity Cycles Legal Risks And Copper Exposure Will Shape Future Performance

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for BHP Group from $44.58 to $49.00, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E that align with the recent price target increase of 100 GBp reported in Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on BHP Group has focused on aligning price targets and fair value estimates with updated assumptions for revenue, margins and future P/E multiples, with JPMorgan lifting its price target by 100 GBp. Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts see the higher price target and fair value estimate as consistent with updated revenue and margin assumptions, which they view as better reflecting BHP Group's current earnings power.
Narrative Update • Jan 07

BHP: Commodity Cycles Legal Liabilities And Copper Projects Will Shape Future Performance

Analysts have trimmed their price target on BHP Group to £21.00 from £22.00, reflecting slightly updated assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E, while maintaining a neutral overall stance. Analyst Commentary Recent research on BHP Group has focused on fine tuning valuation assumptions rather than shifting the overall stance, with the latest move being a trim in the price target while keeping a neutral rating.
Narrative Update • Dec 14

BHP: Commodity Cycles And Legal Liabilities Will Shape Future Performance Outlook

Analysts have trimmed their price target on BHP Group slightly, from 2,200 GBp to 2,100 GBp, reflecting a modestly higher discount rate and only incremental changes to long term revenue growth, margins, and valuation assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research suggests that sentiment on BHP Group is balanced, with the latest adjustment to the price target framed more as a fine tuning of assumptions than a fundamental change in outlook.
Narrative Update • Nov 30

BHP: Sector Volatility And Legal Risks Will Influence Performance Outlook

Analysts have slightly increased their target fair value for BHP Group, raising it from $44.73 to $45.21. They cite modest improvements in projected revenue growth and valuation outlook as the reasons for this adjustment.
Narrative Update • Nov 16

BHP: Mixed Market Signals And Legal Headwinds Will Shape Near-Term Performance

BHP Group’s analyst fair value target has increased modestly from $43.95 to $44.73. Analysts are factoring in revised financial assumptions and recent price target adjustments, despite mixed short-term sentiment.
Narrative Update • Nov 01

BHP: Earnings Outlook Will Balance Inflation Risks And China Demand Uncertainty

BHP Group’s analyst price target was recently lowered by £1.00 to £21.00 per share. Analysts cite softer assumptions for profit margin and revenue growth as factors contributing to their revised outlook.
Narrative Update • Oct 17

Global Decarbonization And Asia Demand Will Underpin Durable Metals Performance

BHP Group's analyst price target has been raised from 2,160 GBp to 2,200 GBp. Analysts cite improvements in projected profit margins and a more favorable revenue outlook as supporting factors for a higher valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst activity on BHP Group reflects a mix of renewed optimism and lingering caution regarding the company's outlook, following updated earnings and operational guidance.
Analysis Article • Oct 16

It's Unlikely That BHP Group Limited's (ASX:BHP) CEO Will See A Huge Pay Rise This Year

Key Insights BHP Group will host its Annual General Meeting on 23rd of October CEO Mike Henry's total compensation...
Narrative Update • Oct 03

Global Decarbonization And Asia Demand Will Underpin Durable Metals Performance

The analyst price target for BHP Group has been raised from A$42.33 to A$43.51, as analysts cite resilient financial performance and a stable margin outlook despite ongoing cost pressures. Analyst Commentary Recent reports reflect a mix of optimism and caution among analysts covering BHP Group.
Narrative Update • Sep 17

Global Decarbonization And Asia Demand Will Underpin Durable Metals Performance

BHP Group's consensus price target was trimmed to A$42.33 as analysts cite valuation concerns amid reduced free cash flow yields, persistent cost pressures, and project execution risks, with the revision reflecting a more cautious outlook despite recent strong results. Analyst Commentary Mixed analyst sentiment with several downgrades to Neutral/Market Perform, citing valuation concerns after the recent share rally and reduced free cash flow yields.
Narrative Update • Aug 27

Expanding Copper Production And Potash Entry Will Diversify Portfolio, But Analysts Forecast Earnings Decline

Consensus analyst reasoning reflects cautious optimism for BHP Group, as improved underlying fiscal results and modest upgrades to revenue forecasts are tempered by ongoing execution risks, cost inflation, and less compelling valuation following a share price rally—resulting in a moderate increase in the analyst price target from A$41.44 to A$42.94. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts pointed to execution risk related to significant cost overruns (“cost blow out”) at Jansen Stage 1, weighing on future outlook.
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New Narrative • Feb 11

Focus On Copper And Potash Expansion Will Shape Future Success

BHP's strategic investments in copper and potash aim to align with long-term demand trends, potentially boosting future revenue growth.
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New Narrative • Jan 30

Upcoming Potash And Copper Projects Will Strengthen Global Market Position

BHP's investments in potash and copper, combined with operational excellence, promise long-term revenue and margin growth through strategic developments and increasing global demand.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

ASX:BHP - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
6/30/202958,41713,52913,16022,19015
6/30/202857,03913,06412,51221,76419
6/30/202757,77012,81911,43121,96217
6/30/202658,7609,83311,52121,778N/A
3/31/202656,37410,03810,70820,763N/A
12/31/202553,98810,2439,89519,747N/A
9/30/202552,6259,6319,39719,220N/A
6/30/202551,2629,0198,89818,692N/A
3/31/202552,43210,2039,63119,395N/A
12/31/202453,60211,38610,36420,098N/A
9/30/202454,6309,64210,87820,382N/A
6/30/202455,6587,89711,39220,665N/A
3/31/202455,3627,64411,70420,740N/A
12/31/202355,0657,39112,01520,815N/A
9/30/202354,44110,15611,81719,758N/A
6/30/202353,81712,92111,61818,701N/A
3/31/202356,87815,57615,51322,184N/A
12/31/202260,56418,23119,40725,667N/A
9/30/202262,98819,23822,73528,921N/A
6/30/202265,09820,24526,06332,174N/A
3/31/202264,65718,08925,72231,658N/A
12/31/202163,90315,93225,38131,142N/A
9/30/202160,57913,73123,40629,188N/A
6/30/202157,25511,52921,43027,234N/A
3/31/202147,0339,23517,62222,434N/A
12/31/202044,9507,15610,86717,633N/A
9/30/202044,0877,5569,46716,670N/A
6/30/202039,1537,8489,53915,706N/A
3/31/202044,8128,704N/A16,873N/A
12/31/201945,8329,452N/A18,039N/A
9/30/201945,0609,047N/A17,955N/A
6/30/201944,5728,641N/A17,871N/A
3/31/201943,7128,739N/AN/AN/A
12/31/201843,6498,836N/A18,392N/A
9/30/201843,5187,731N/A18,427N/A
6/30/201843,1296,626N/A18,461N/A
3/31/201842,0725,580N/A17,456N/A
12/31/201737,6875,005N/A16,450N/A
9/30/201737,0165,684N/A16,627N/A
6/30/201735,9476,362N/A16,804N/A
3/31/201736,6824,189N/A14,933N/A
12/31/201634,6982,488N/A13,062N/A
9/30/201633,027-1,948N/A11,844N/A
6/30/201629,005-490N/A10,625N/A
3/31/201633,653-6,248N/A12,379N/A
12/31/201535,936-6,111N/A14,133N/A
9/30/201540,527-1,344N/A16,715N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BHP's forecast earnings growth (7.2% per year) is above the savings rate (3.8%).

Earnings vs Market: BHP's earnings (7.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Australian market (11.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BHP's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: BHP's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-0.04% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BHP's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.04% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BHP's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (20.7%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/18 08:37
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/18 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2026/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

BHP Group Limited is covered by 50 analysts. 20 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Ayan GhoshAvior Capital Markets
Amos FletcherBarclays