Update shared on 30 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 1.06%Analysts have slightly increased their target fair value for BHP Group, raising it from $44.73 to $45.21. They cite modest improvements in projected revenue growth and valuation outlook as the reasons for this adjustment.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst opinions on BHP Group reveal both optimism about the company’s prospects and caution due to shifting market conditions. Below, we summarize the prevailing bullish and bearish viewpoints regarding BHP Group's valuation and outlook.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have recently increased their price targets for BHP Group, highlighting resilience in the company's targeted growth and operational execution.
- Updates to revenue forecasts suggest that expectations for the company’s earnings potential have improved modestly, supporting a slightly higher fair value estimate.
- Upward target adjustments reflect confidence that BHP Group will maintain steady performance in the face of ongoing sector headwinds.
- Bearish analysts have lowered their price targets in response to near-term uncertainty and sector volatility, signaling caution around BHP Group's valuation.
- There are ongoing concerns about potential challenges in demand trends and commodity pricing, which could pressure future earnings growth.
- Revisions downward from major firms like JPMorgan indicate some skepticism about the company’s ability to deliver significant upside in its current operating environment.
What's in the News
- Anglo American rejected BHP's latest takeover proposal, stating the offer was not superior to its planned combination with Teck Resources (Bloomberg).
- BHP has been found legally liable for the 2015 Mariana dam disaster by the High Court in London, which ruled the company strictly liable for environmental and third-party damages (Financial Times).
- The U.S. Department of the Interior has added copper, silver, and metallurgical coal, which are major BHP business segments, to its critical minerals list. This may potentially impact future trade policies (Financial Times).
- BHP sold several iron ore cargoes to Chinese traders despite an ongoing dispute with China's state buyer, with shipments scheduled for late November and early December (Bloomberg).
- BHP is reportedly considering reopening defunct mines in the historic U.S. copper belt as policy changes encourage renewed exploration in Arizona (Financial Times).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, increasing from A$44.73 to A$45.21.
- Discount Rate edged upward, moving from 7.95% to approximately 8.01%.
- Revenue Growth expectations have shifted from a slight contraction (−0.11%) to a modest projected increase (0.03%).
- Net Profit Margin declined marginally, from 21.90% to 21.63%.
- Future P/E Ratio ticked higher, rising from 16.71x to 17.10x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.