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US$65
FV
13.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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AU$219.39
17.8% overvalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
6.01% p.a.
Profit Margin
23.93%
Future PE
20x
Price in 2031
AU$340.31
AU$21.9
12.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Profit Margin
29.22%
Future PE
17.27x
Price in 2031
AU$32.76
AU$1.77
15.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
11% p.a.
Profit Margin
19.97%
Future PE
5.33x
Price in 2031
AU$2.5
AU$3.8
35.0% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
1.28% p.a.
Profit Margin
5.28%
Future PE
29.72x
Price in 2031
AU$5.33