Last Update26 May 25Fair value Increased 7.66%
MyIncomeFactory has decreased discount rate from 5.0% to 4.0%.
Aurizon’s decade-long medians sit at –2.3 % revenue/share growth, 11.1 % net margin and a 17× P/E. Looking five years out, scenarios span 0–4 % top-line CAGR, 8–12 % margins and 9–14× multiples, hinging on Bulk-freight expansion, tariff indexation, cost inflation and ESG-driven market sentiment.
Revenue / Share – Annual Growth
- Historical median (10 yrs): –2.3 %
- 5-yr outlook
- Pessimistic: 0 % – flat volumes, no tariff uplift
- Mid-case: ≈ 2.5 % – CPI-plus indexation, Bulk ramp-up, 1 % share-count shrink
- Optimistic: ≈ 4 % – Bulk expansion & Darwin land-bridge, mild coal recovery
Net Profit Margin
- Historical median (10 yrs): 11.1 %
- 5-yr outlook
- Pessimistic: 8 % – diesel & wage inflation out-run pricing
- Mid-case: 10 % – mix shift offsets cost pressure
- Optimistic: 12 % – higher regulated WACC & productivity wins
P/E Multiple
- Historical median (10 yrs): 17 ×
- 5-yr outlook
- Pessimistic: 9 × – market derates coal-exposed rails
- Mid-case: 12 × – in-line with regulated-asset peers
- Optimistic: 14 × – higher Bulk weighting, ESG discount narrows
How These Figures Were Derived
- Historical medians use Market Index’s FY-2015 → FY-2024 data set.
- Scenario forecasts map management guidance (FY-24 & 1H-25 decks) into three frames:
- Pessimistic: flat revenue, margin squeeze, multiple compression.
- Mid-case: ~2 % top-line CAGR, 80 % dividend payout, modest buy-backs.
- Optimistic: Bulk/container growth and stronger regulated returns lift both earnings and market sentiment.
- Use 4% discount rate comparable to current average high yield bank deposit
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Disclaimer
The user MyIncomeFactory has a position in ASX:AZJ. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
