BHP Group Limited

ASX:BHP Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$246.2b

BHP Group Valuation

Is BHP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of BHP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: BHP (A$48.48) is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value (A$41.09)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: BHP is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BHP?

Key metric: As BHP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BHP. This is calculated by dividing BHP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BHP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.4x
EarningsUS$9.02b
Market CapUS$166.19b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BHP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BHP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.9x
S32 South32
39.7x29.14%AU$18.7b
ILU Iluka Resources
15x-9.62%AU$2.8b
PRN Perenti
22.9x18.36%AU$2.8b
FMG Fortescue
13.9x-8.40%AU$69.6b
BHP BHP Group
18.4x6.79%AU$246.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BHP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x) compared to the peer average (22.9x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BHP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MMI Metro Mining
3.1x-2.53%US$284.65m
BRB Breaker Resources
3.9xn/aUS$110.05m
AGY Argosy Minerals
3.3xn/aUS$109.40m
PL9 Prairie Lithium
2.9xn/aUS$30.14m
BHP 18.4xIndustry Avg. 25.9xNo. of Companies12PE020406080100+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BHP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (25.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BHP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BHP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.4x
Fair PE Ratio31.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BHP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BHP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$48.48
AU$49.00
+1.06%
11.49%AU$58.47AU$37.40n/a15
Jan ’27AU$45.49
AU$44.86
-1.38%
6.29%AU$48.80AU$38.36n/a15
Dec ’26AU$42.08
AU$45.20
+7.42%
5.88%AU$48.93AU$39.70n/a15
Nov ’26AU$43.45
AU$43.89
+1.01%
7.48%AU$47.43AU$35.65n/a15
Oct ’26AU$41.47
AU$43.15
+4.05%
6.79%AU$46.73AU$35.49n/a15
Sep ’26AU$42.70
AU$42.84
+0.33%
6.32%AU$46.79AU$35.82n/a15
Aug ’26AU$39.22
AU$42.67
+8.79%
6.50%AU$46.71AU$36.54n/a15
Jul ’26AU$36.57
AU$41.46
+13.37%
6.22%AU$45.61AU$37.94n/a15
Jun ’26AU$38.25
AU$42.59
+11.34%
7.14%AU$48.21AU$37.62n/a15
May ’26AU$37.83
AU$42.74
+12.97%
7.14%AU$48.50AU$37.85n/a15
Apr ’26AU$38.89
AU$44.62
+14.73%
6.74%AU$48.67AU$39.35n/a15
Mar ’26AU$39.04
AU$45.54
+16.65%
6.28%AU$49.23AU$40.88n/a15
Feb ’26AU$39.95
AU$44.35
+11.02%
6.68%AU$48.74AU$39.70n/a15
Jan ’26AU$39.55
AU$46.82
+18.39%
6.68%AU$50.73AU$40.93AU$45.4915
Dec ’25AU$40.57
AU$45.56
+12.31%
6.05%AU$49.90AU$40.08AU$42.0815
Nov ’25AU$42.78
AU$46.07
+7.70%
7.12%AU$52.32AU$39.77AU$43.4515
Oct ’25AU$44.64
AU$45.47
+1.86%
8.60%AU$52.17AU$38.43AU$41.4716
Sep ’25AU$40.77
AU$45.71
+12.12%
7.96%AU$52.86AU$40.03AU$42.7016
Aug ’25AU$42.49
AU$47.43
+11.63%
8.27%AU$53.80AU$41.14AU$39.2216
Jul ’25AU$43.30
AU$46.45
+7.27%
8.31%AU$52.72AU$39.90AU$36.5715
Jun ’25AU$44.51
AU$46.61
+4.73%
8.76%AU$52.74AU$39.92AU$38.2514
May ’25AU$42.32
AU$47.14
+11.40%
8.62%AU$53.02AU$40.62AU$37.8312
Apr ’25AU$44.27
AU$47.17
+6.54%
7.49%AU$52.87AU$42.18AU$38.8916
Mar ’25AU$44.92
AU$47.52
+5.79%
7.17%AU$52.96AU$42.42AU$39.0416
Feb ’25AU$47.11
AU$48.35
+2.62%
9.10%AU$59.91AU$43.20AU$39.9515
Jan ’25AU$50.41
AU$46.88
-6.99%
10.55%AU$56.34AU$38.79AU$39.5515
AU$49
Fair Value
1.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/01/21 17:46
End of Day Share Price 2026/01/21 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

BHP Group Limited is covered by 57 analysts. 20 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Ayan GhoshAvior Capital Markets
Caroline LearmonthBarclays