BHP Group Limited

ASX:BHP Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$291.3b

BHP Group Past Earnings Performance

Past criteria checks 2/6

BHP Group's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -8.2%, while the Metals and Mining industry saw earnings growing at 15.2% annually. Revenues have been declining at an average rate of 1.4% per year. BHP Group's return on equity is 23.4%, and it has net margins of 19%.

Key information

-8.18%

Earnings growth rate

-8.24%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining Industry Growth22.33%
Revenue growth rate-1.39%
Return on equity23.41%
Net Margin18.97%
Next Earnings Update17 Aug 2026

Recent past performance updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update May 04

BHP: Commodity Mix And China Ties Will Shape Future Fairly Valued Outlook

BHP Group's analyst price target has moved higher to A$53.40 from A$52.50, as analysts factor in slightly stronger revenue growth assumptions along with a modestly higher future P/E, partly supported by recent target increases from major brokers. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on BHP Group shows a mix of optimism and caution, with several price target revisions and rating changes reflecting different views on valuation, earnings power and macro exposure.
Narrative Update Apr 19

BHP: Commodity Mix And China Stabilization Will Shape Future Fairly Valued Outlook

The analyst fair value estimate for BHP Group has shifted slightly lower to A$52.50 from A$53.37, as analysts factor in updated assumptions for higher long term revenue growth, a modestly lower profit margin, a slightly higher discount rate, and a higher future P/E multiple following a mix of recent price target increases and trims across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research on BHP Group has been mixed, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets while more cautious analysts have trimmed theirs or maintained restrained views.
Narrative Update Apr 05

BHP: Commodity Mix And China Stabilization Will Shape Fairly Valued Outlook

The analyst fair value estimate for BHP Group has increased modestly to A$53.37 from A$52.50, reflecting updated assumptions about slightly stronger revenue growth and a refreshed set of mixed but generally constructive price targets from recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on BHP Group shows a mix of optimism on long term prospects and caution around valuation and execution risks, which helps explain the modest adjustment in the fair value estimate.
Narrative Update Mar 22

BHP: Commodity Cycles And China Recovery Will Shape Fairly Valued Outlook

Analysts have adjusted the BHP Group fair value estimate slightly higher to A$52.50. This reflects refreshed price targets that balance updated revenue and margin assumptions with mixed views on commodity exposure and valuation.
New Narrative Mar 21

BHP’s value is durability today (iron ore) and optionality tomorrow (copper + potash). Execution and macro demand are the swing factors.

Catalysts 1) Copper demand: electrification + AI-driven power infrastructure The market often frames copper as an “energy transition” commodity, but I see incremental demand coming from AI/data-center power density and grid capex (transmission, distribution, redundancy). This supports a structurally tighter copper market over time.
Narrative Update Mar 05

BHP: Commodity Cycles And China Recovery Will Shape Future Returns

The analyst fair value estimate for BHP Group has been adjusted slightly higher to A$51.98 from A$51.72. This change reflects a series of recent price target increases across the Street as analysts factor in updated assumptions for revenue growth, margins and valuation multiples.
Narrative Update Feb 19

BHP: Commodity Cycles And Mega Deals Will Shape Future Returns

Analysts have lifted their BHP Group price target by A$3.54. The change is supported by model updates that incorporate a higher fair value estimate, a small adjustment to the discount rate, a slightly lower revenue growth assumption, a modestly higher profit margin, and a marginally higher future P/E multiple.
New Narrative Feb 18

Copper And Potash Expansion Will Expose Long Term Earnings And Margin Vulnerabilities

Catalysts About BHP Group BHP Group is a diversified mining company with large operations in copper, iron ore, steelmaking coal, uranium, gold and potash. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narrative Update Feb 05

BHP: Commodity Cycles Legal Risks And Mega Deals Will Shape Future Performance

Analysts nudged their BHP Group price targets higher, with the modelled fair value moving from about A$48.99 to A$48.17 as they factored in updated revenue growth, profit margin, P/E and discount rate assumptions aligned with the latest Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around BHP Group has been relatively limited in volume, but the available signals point to modest valuation adjustments rather than wholesale changes in conviction.
Narrative Update Jan 22

BHP: Commodity Cycles Legal Risks And Copper Exposure Will Shape Future Performance

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for BHP Group from $44.58 to $49.00, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E that align with the recent price target increase of 100 GBp reported in Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on BHP Group has focused on aligning price targets and fair value estimates with updated assumptions for revenue, margins and future P/E multiples, with JPMorgan lifting its price target by 100 GBp. Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts see the higher price target and fair value estimate as consistent with updated revenue and margin assumptions, which they view as better reflecting BHP Group's current earnings power.
Narrative Update Jan 07

BHP: Commodity Cycles Legal Liabilities And Copper Projects Will Shape Future Performance

Analysts have trimmed their price target on BHP Group to £21.00 from £22.00, reflecting slightly updated assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E, while maintaining a neutral overall stance. Analyst Commentary Recent research on BHP Group has focused on fine tuning valuation assumptions rather than shifting the overall stance, with the latest move being a trim in the price target while keeping a neutral rating.
Narrative Update Dec 14

BHP: Commodity Cycles And Legal Liabilities Will Shape Future Performance Outlook

Analysts have trimmed their price target on BHP Group slightly, from 2,200 GBp to 2,100 GBp, reflecting a modestly higher discount rate and only incremental changes to long term revenue growth, margins, and valuation assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research suggests that sentiment on BHP Group is balanced, with the latest adjustment to the price target framed more as a fine tuning of assumptions than a fundamental change in outlook.
Narrative Update Nov 30

BHP: Sector Volatility And Legal Risks Will Influence Performance Outlook

Analysts have slightly increased their target fair value for BHP Group, raising it from $44.73 to $45.21. They cite modest improvements in projected revenue growth and valuation outlook as the reasons for this adjustment.
Narrative Update Nov 16

BHP: Mixed Market Signals And Legal Headwinds Will Shape Near-Term Performance

BHP Group’s analyst fair value target has increased modestly from $43.95 to $44.73. Analysts are factoring in revised financial assumptions and recent price target adjustments, despite mixed short-term sentiment.
Narrative Update Nov 01

BHP: Earnings Outlook Will Balance Inflation Risks And China Demand Uncertainty

BHP Group’s analyst price target was recently lowered by £1.00 to £21.00 per share. Analysts cite softer assumptions for profit margin and revenue growth as factors contributing to their revised outlook.
Narrative Update Oct 17

Global Decarbonization And Asia Demand Will Underpin Durable Metals Performance

BHP Group's analyst price target has been raised from 2,160 GBp to 2,200 GBp. Analysts cite improvements in projected profit margins and a more favorable revenue outlook as supporting factors for a higher valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst activity on BHP Group reflects a mix of renewed optimism and lingering caution regarding the company's outlook, following updated earnings and operational guidance.
Analysis Article Oct 16

It's Unlikely That BHP Group Limited's (ASX:BHP) CEO Will See A Huge Pay Rise This Year

Key Insights BHP Group will host its Annual General Meeting on 23rd of October CEO Mike Henry's total compensation...
Narrative Update Oct 03

Global Decarbonization And Asia Demand Will Underpin Durable Metals Performance

The analyst price target for BHP Group has been raised from A$42.33 to A$43.51, as analysts cite resilient financial performance and a stable margin outlook despite ongoing cost pressures. Analyst Commentary Recent reports reflect a mix of optimism and caution among analysts covering BHP Group.
Narrative Update Sep 17

Global Decarbonization And Asia Demand Will Underpin Durable Metals Performance

BHP Group's consensus price target was trimmed to A$42.33 as analysts cite valuation concerns amid reduced free cash flow yields, persistent cost pressures, and project execution risks, with the revision reflecting a more cautious outlook despite recent strong results. Analyst Commentary Mixed analyst sentiment with several downgrades to Neutral/Market Perform, citing valuation concerns after the recent share rally and reduced free cash flow yields.
Narrative Update Aug 27

Expanding Copper Production And Potash Entry Will Diversify Portfolio, But Analysts Forecast Earnings Decline

Consensus analyst reasoning reflects cautious optimism for BHP Group, as improved underlying fiscal results and modest upgrades to revenue forecasts are tempered by ongoing execution risks, cost inflation, and less compelling valuation following a share price rally—resulting in a moderate increase in the analyst price target from A$41.44 to A$42.94. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts pointed to execution risk related to significant cost overruns (“cost blow out”) at Jansen Stage 1, weighing on future outlook.
Analysis Article Jun 02

An Intrinsic Calculation For BHP Group Limited (ASX:BHP) Suggests It's 40% Undervalued

Key Insights The projected fair value for BHP Group is AU$62.61 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share...
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New Narrative Feb 11

Focus On Copper And Potash Expansion Will Shape Future Success

BHP's strategic investments in copper and potash aim to align with long-term demand trends, potentially boosting future revenue growth.
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New Narrative Jan 30

Upcoming Potash And Copper Projects Will Strengthen Global Market Position

BHP's investments in potash and copper, combined with operational excellence, promise long-term revenue and margin growth through strategic developments and increasing global demand.

Revenue & Expenses Breakdown

How BHP Group makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.


Earnings and Revenue History

ASX:BHP Revenue, expenses and earnings (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsG+A ExpensesR&D Expenses
31 Dec 2553,98810,24313,4610
30 Sep 2552,6259,63113,4610
30 Jun 2551,2629,01913,4610
31 Mar 2552,43210,20313,4440
31 Dec 2453,60211,38613,4270
30 Sep 2454,6309,64213,4270
30 Jun 2455,6587,89713,4270
31 Mar 2455,3627,64412,8180
31 Dec 2355,0657,39112,2080
30 Sep 2354,44110,15612,2080
30 Jun 2353,81712,92112,2080
31 Mar 2356,87815,57611,8800
31 Dec 2260,56418,23111,5520
30 Sep 2262,98819,23811,5520
30 Jun 2265,09820,24511,5520
31 Mar 2264,65718,08911,2480
31 Dec 2163,90315,93210,9430
30 Sep 2160,57913,73110,9430
30 Jun 2157,25511,52910,9430
31 Mar 2147,0339,2359,4690
31 Dec 2044,9507,15610,8280
30 Sep 2044,0877,55610,8280
30 Jun 2039,1537,8489,4110
31 Mar 2044,8128,70410,9780
31 Dec 1945,8329,45211,9380
30 Sep 1945,0609,04711,9380
30 Jun 1944,5728,64111,5330
31 Mar 1943,7128,73911,9730
31 Dec 1843,6498,83612,0090
30 Sep 1843,5187,73112,0090
30 Jun 1843,1296,62612,0090
31 Mar 1842,0725,5806,2230
31 Dec 1737,6875,00510,7170
30 Sep 1737,0165,68410,7170
30 Jun 1735,9476,36210,4130
31 Mar 1736,6824,18911,7680
31 Dec 1634,6982,48811,7300
30 Sep 1633,027-1,94811,7300
30 Jun 1629,005-49010,2740
31 Mar 1633,653-6,24813,4560
31 Dec 1535,936-6,11114,8070
30 Sep 1540,527-1,34414,8110
30 Jun 1545,1243,42215,0020

Quality Earnings: BHP has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: BHP's current net profit margins (19%) are lower than last year (21.2%).


Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BHP's earnings have declined by 8.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: BHP's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: BHP had negative earnings growth (-10%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Metals and Mining industry average (59.9%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: BHP's Return on Equity (23.4%) is considered high.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/21 12:55
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/21 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

BHP Group Limited is covered by 60 analysts. 20 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Ayan GhoshAvior Capital Markets
Amos FletcherBarclays