South32 Limited

ASX:S32 Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$16.7b

South32 Valuation

Is S32 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of S32 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: S32 (A$3.73) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$0.2)

Significantly Below Fair Value: S32 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for S32?

Key metric: As S32 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for S32. This is calculated by dividing S32's market cap by their current revenue.
What is S32's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2x
SalesUS$5.59b
Market CapUS$10.84b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does S32's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for S32 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.6x
LYC Lynas Rare Earths
13.9x32.4%AU$6.5b
MIN Mineral Resources
1.3x6.0%AU$6.8b
PLS Pilbara Minerals
6.7x13.2%AU$8.7b
IGO IGO
4.5x-57.5%AU$3.8b
S32 South32
2x9.4%AU$16.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: S32 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2x) compared to the peer average (6.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does S32's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

123 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.61.9x2.7%
S32 South32
 2x9.4%US$10.84b
BHP BHP Group
2.3x-4.1%US$132.18b
FMG Fortescue
2x-5.6%US$35.50b
S32 2.0xIndustry Avg. 61.9xNo. of Companies123PS020406080100+
123 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.61.9x10.7%
S32 South32
 2x53.4%US$10.84b
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: S32 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (61.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is S32's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

S32 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2x
Fair PS Ratio3.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: S32 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst S32 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$3.73
AU$3.84
+3.0%
14.2%AU$4.67AU$2.37n/a14
Nov ’25AU$3.72
AU$3.79
+1.9%
14.7%AU$4.60AU$2.28n/a14
Oct ’25AU$3.67
AU$3.56
-3.1%
15.1%AU$4.40AU$2.20n/a14
Sep ’25AU$3.14
AU$3.62
+15.4%
15.6%AU$4.52AU$2.23n/a15
Aug ’25AU$3.14
AU$3.83
+21.8%
11.3%AU$4.68AU$3.09n/a14
Jul ’25AU$3.71
AU$4.07
+9.6%
9.7%AU$4.75AU$3.21n/a14
Jun ’25AU$3.97
AU$3.91
-1.6%
10.4%AU$4.61AU$3.22n/a14
May ’25AU$3.50
AU$3.78
+8.0%
9.3%AU$4.70AU$3.32n/a14
Apr ’25AU$3.00
AU$3.75
+25.1%
9.4%AU$4.68AU$3.30n/a14
Mar ’25AU$3.02
AU$3.77
+24.9%
8.9%AU$4.68AU$3.39n/a13
Feb ’25AU$3.29
AU$3.85
+17.0%
9.8%AU$4.75AU$3.11n/a13
Jan ’25AU$3.33
AU$3.87
+16.2%
10.9%AU$4.79AU$3.04n/a13
Dec ’24AU$3.09
AU$3.94
+27.4%
11.7%AU$4.79AU$3.04n/a13
Nov ’24AU$3.32
AU$4.14
+24.7%
12.4%AU$5.22AU$3.21AU$3.7213
Oct ’24AU$3.39
AU$4.16
+22.6%
11.8%AU$5.19AU$3.39AU$3.6712
Sep ’24AU$3.40
AU$4.14
+21.9%
11.1%AU$5.15AU$3.47AU$3.1412
Aug ’24AU$3.90
AU$4.37
+12.1%
9.6%AU$5.28AU$3.77AU$3.1412
Jul ’24AU$3.76
AU$4.74
+26.2%
9.3%AU$5.67AU$4.26AU$3.7112
Jun ’24AU$3.86
AU$5.00
+29.5%
8.7%AU$5.93AU$4.53AU$3.9712
May ’24AU$4.21
AU$4.95
+17.6%
8.7%AU$5.83AU$4.36AU$3.5014
Apr ’24AU$4.37
AU$5.13
+17.5%
8.4%AU$5.93AU$4.54AU$3.0015
Mar ’24AU$4.47
AU$5.10
+14.0%
8.0%AU$5.88AU$4.51AU$3.0216
Feb ’24AU$4.63
AU$4.90
+5.9%
8.4%AU$5.60AU$4.25AU$3.2917
Jan ’24AU$4.00
AU$4.73
+18.2%
13.3%AU$5.96AU$3.47AU$3.3317
Dec ’23AU$4.29
AU$4.53
+5.6%
13.6%AU$5.86AU$3.41AU$3.0917
Nov ’23AU$3.72
AU$4.74
+27.5%
14.5%AU$5.99AU$3.54AU$3.3217

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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