Stock Analysis

Investors Still Waiting For A Pull Back In Mader Group Limited (ASX:MAD)

ASX:MAD
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When close to half the companies in Australia have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 18x, you may consider Mader Group Limited (ASX:MAD) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 37.7x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, Mader Group has been doing quite well of late. The P/E is probably high because investors think the company will continue to navigate the broader market headwinds better than most. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Mader Group

pe-multiple-vs-industry
ASX:MAD Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry December 19th 2023
Keen to find out how analysts think Mader Group's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

How Is Mader Group's Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Mader Group's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 38% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 120% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the four analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 22% each year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 17% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we can see why Mader Group is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.

What We Can Learn From Mader Group's P/E?

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Mader Group maintains its high P/E on the strength of its forecast growth being higher than the wider market, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Mader Group that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.