Stock Analysis

Commonwealth Bank of Australia's (ASX:CBA) investors will be pleased with their decent 93% return over the last five years

ASX:CBA
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When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, long term Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) shareholders have enjoyed a 56% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 25% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 9.1% , including dividends .

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

View our latest analysis for Commonwealth Bank of Australia

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Commonwealth Bank of Australia achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 4.0% per year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 9% per year, over the same period. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
ASX:CBA Earnings Per Share Growth January 18th 2024

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Commonwealth Bank of Australia's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Commonwealth Bank of Australia the TSR over the last 5 years was 93%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Commonwealth Bank of Australia has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 9.1% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 14% a year, is even better. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Commonwealth Bank of Australia , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.