Stock Analysis

Neste Oyj (HEL:NESTE) Has Rewarded Shareholders With An Exceptional 570% Total Return On Their Investment

HLSE:NESTE
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Long term investing can be life changing when you buy and hold the truly great businesses. And highest quality companies can see their share prices grow by huge amounts. Don't believe it? Then look at the Neste Oyj (HEL:NESTE) share price. It's 490% higher than it was five years ago. This just goes to show the value creation that some businesses can achieve. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 27% gain in the last three months.

Check out our latest analysis for Neste Oyj

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over half a decade, Neste Oyj managed to grow its earnings per share at 49% a year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 43% average annual increase in the share price. This indicates that investor sentiment towards the company has not changed a great deal. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
HLSE:NESTE Earnings Per Share Growth August 31st 2020

We know that Neste Oyj has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Neste Oyj the TSR over the last 5 years was 570%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Neste Oyj shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 59% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 46%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. Before deciding if you like the current share price, check how Neste Oyj scores on these 3 valuation metrics.

We will like Neste Oyj better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on FI exchanges.

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Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Neste Oyj might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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