New Risk • Apr 30
New minor risk - Financial position The company has a high level of debt. Net debt to equity ratio: 46% This is considered a minor risk. Having a high level of debt increases the company's balance sheet risk. The company has a higher interest repayment burden, leading to the need to allocate a greater amount of its earnings towards servicing the debt, potentially limiting growth options or shareholder distributions. It can also increase the risk of bankruptcy if business conditions deteriorate enough that the company can no longer meet its debt obligations. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (46% net debt to equity). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.3% average weekly change). New Risk • Apr 29
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 32% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 32% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.1% average weekly change). Major Estimate Revision • Apr 29
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 15% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast increased from €19.9b to €23.0b. EPS estimate unchanged from €2.04 at last update. Oil and Gas industry in Finland expected to see average net income growth of 50% next year. Consensus price target up from €26.06 to €26.77. Share price rose 16% to €29.43 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 21
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 16% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from €19.9b to €20.4b. EPS estimate increased from €1.74 to €2.02 per share. Net income forecast to grow 1,013% next year vs 43% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Finland. Consensus price target up from €26.06 to €26.66. Share price was steady at €24.95 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 07
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 18% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from €19.4b to €19.8b. EPS estimate increased from €1.38 to €1.63 per share. Net income forecast to grow 840% next year vs 35% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Finland. Consensus price target up from €24.98 to €25.69. Share price fell 2.8% to €27.18 over the past week. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 23
Now 25% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 45% to €27.47. The fair value is estimated to be €36.42, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.4% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 6.8% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 28% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 20
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from €18.2b to €18.8b. EPS estimate increased from €1.21 to €1.38 per share. Net income forecast to grow 717% next year vs 31% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Finland. Consensus price target up from €21.53 to €24.51. Share price rose 8.4% to €29.48 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 19
Upcoming dividend of €0.20 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 26 March 2026. Payment date: 07 April 2026. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits but is generating plenty of cash to support the dividend. Trailing yield: 0.7%. Lower than top quartile of Finnish dividend payers (5.3%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.3%). New Risk • Mar 17
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Finnish stocks, typically moving 5.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Price Target Changed • Mar 17
Price target increased by 8.5% to €23.14 Up from €21.32, the current price target is an average from 19 analysts. New target price is 19% below last closing price of €28.73. Stock is up 195% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €1.14 for next year compared to €0.19 last year. Announcement • Mar 05
Neste Corporation Announces Management Changes, Effective 1 April 2026 Neste Corporation appointed new leadership team members as part of an organizational change that primarily affects the company's Renewable Products business. As of 1 April 2026, Renewable Products commercial, refining, and feedstock sourcing and trading will be represented in Neste's leadership team. At the same time, Neste will establish a Renewable Products, North America business unit, responsible for all renewable products business in North America, including regional feedstock and commercial operations as well as Martinez joint venture. From 1 April 2026 onwards, Neste's leadership team members will consist of Heikki Malinen, President and CEO, and the following leadership team members, who will all report to the President and CEO: Jori Sahlsten, Executive Vice President, Oil Products business area; Artturi Mikkola, Senior Vice President, Renewable Products Feedstock Sourcing and Trading; Jukka Kanerva, Senior Vice President, Renewable Products Refining; Carl Nyberg, Senior Vice President, Renewable Products Commercial; N.N., President, Renewable Products, North America (Carl Nyberg as interim); Markku Korvenranta, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer (COO); Eeva Sipilä, Chief Financial Officer (CFO); Hannele Jakosuo-Jansson, Executive Vice President, People & Culture. These changes will not affect Neste's financial reporting segments. Declared Dividend • Feb 08
Dividend of €0.20 announced Dividend of €0.20 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 26th March 2026 Payment date: 7th April 2026 Dividend yield will be 0.9%, which is lower than the industry average of 6.4%. Payout Ratios Payout ratio: 107%. Cash payout ratio: 19%. Announcement • Feb 07
Neste Corporation Appoints Jukka Siukosaari as Senior Vice President, Public Affairs and Geopolitics, Effective June 1, 2026 Neste Corporation has appointed Jukka Siukosaari, MSc (Econ.), as Senior Vice President, Public Affairs and Geopolitics, effective June 1, 2026. He will report to Heikki Malinen, President and CEO of Neste and be a member of Neste’s Extended Leadership Team. Siukosaari will join Neste from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs where he currently serves as Ambassador of Finland to the Kingdom of Denmark. Previously he has served as Finland’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, Japan and Argentina as well as the Permanent Representative to the IMO (International Maritime Organization). From 2018 to 2021 he was Chief of Staff at the Office of the President of the Republic of Finland. Reported Earnings • Feb 06
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: €0.19 (up from €0.12 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: €19.0b (down 7.8% from FY 2024). Net income: €144.0m (up €239.0m from FY 2024). Profit margin: 0.8% (up from net loss in FY 2024). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 37%. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.0% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 63 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. New Risk • Dec 10
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Finnish stocks, typically moving 5.5% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.8x net interest cover). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.5% average weekly change). New Risk • Oct 30
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 0.8x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Announcement • Oct 29
Neste Oyj Announces Guidance Unchanged for 2025 Neste Oyj announced guidance unchanged. for 2025 For the year, the company expected renewable products' sales volumes in 2025 are expected to be higher than in 2024. Oil Products' sales volumes in 2025 are expected to be higher than in 2024. Price Target Changed • Jul 25
Price target increased by 10.0% to €14.30 Up from €13.00, the current price target is an average from 21 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of €14.54. Stock is down 24% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.34 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.12 last year. Reported Earnings • Jul 25
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: €0.05 loss per share (improved from €0.19 loss in 2Q 2024). Revenue: €4.51b (down 2.8% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: €36.0m (loss narrowed 75% from 2Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 9.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in Europe are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 36 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 24
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 32% to €11.45. The fair value is estimated to be €14.47, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Announcement • Jun 09
Neste Corporation Appoints Members to Shareholders' Nomination Board Neste Corporation has appointed the following members to the Shareholders' Nomination Board: Director General Maija Strandberg of the Ownership Steering Department in the Prime Minister's Office of Finland, as the Chair, and Senior Vice President, Investments Timo Sallinen of Varma Mutual Pension Insurance Company and Head of Equities Annika Ekman of Ilmarinen Mutual Pension Insurance Company, as its members. Pasi Laine, the Chair of Neste's Board of Directors, acts as an expert to the Nomination Board. According to the Charter for the Shareholders' Nomination Board, the members represent the company's three largest shareholders. Shareholders entitled to elect members to the Nomination Board are determined annually on the basis of the shareholders' register as of the first banking day in June. The Shareholders' Nomination Board is responsible for preparing and presenting proposals to the Annual General Meeting concerning Board members and the number of Board members. The Nomination Board shall forward its proposals to Neste's Board of Directors by January 31, 2026. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 14
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 5.9% to €9.60. The fair value is estimated to be €12.28, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Reported Earnings • Apr 29
First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2025 results: €0.052 loss per share (down from €0.21 profit in 1Q 2024). Revenue: €5.02b (up 4.5% from 1Q 2024). Net loss: €40.0m (down 125% from profit in 1Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 60%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 18%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in Europe are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 58% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 41% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Mar 26
Neste Oyj Elects Members of Its Two Committees Neste Oyj convening after the Annual General Meeting on March 25, 2025, announced that the Board of Directors elected the members of its two Committees. Pasi Laine was elected as Chair and Nick Elmslie, Conrad Keijzer and Sari Mannonen as members of the Personnel and Remuneration Committee. Essimari Kairisto was elected as Chair and John Abbott, Anna Hyvönen and Just Jansz as members of the Audit Committee. Announcement • Mar 25
Neste Corporation Approves Dividend for the Year 2024, Payable on 3 April 2025 Neste Corporation announced that at its AGM held on 25 March 2025, approved the board of directors' proposal that a dividend of EUR 0.20 per share will be paid on the basis of the approved balance sheet for 2024. The dividend will be paid to shareholders registered in the shareholders' register of the company maintained by Euroclear Finland Oy on the record date of the dividend payment, which shall be 27 March 2025. The dividend will be paid on 3 April 2025. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 19
Upcoming dividend of €0.20 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 26 March 2025. Payment date: 03 April 2025. The company is not currently making a profit and is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.1%. Lower than top quartile of Finnish dividend payers (5.9%). Lower than average of industry peers (6.6%). New Risk • Feb 19
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Finnish stocks, typically moving 6.1% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.3x net interest cover). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.1% average weekly change). Announcement • Feb 14
Neste Oyj, Annual General Meeting, Mar 25, 2025 Neste Oyj, Annual General Meeting, Mar 25, 2025, at 10:30 FLE Standard Time. Location: in the conference centre of helsinki expo and, convention centre, entrance at rautatielaisenkatu 3, 00520 helsinki Finland Board Change • Feb 14
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 10 experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. Independent Director Nick Elmslie was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Insufficient board refreshment. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 12
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from €0.108 to €0.095 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €20.3b. Net income forecast to grow 56% next year vs 26% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Finland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €20.74. Share price fell 8.3% to €12.90 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 07
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 27% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from €0.148 to €0.108. Revenue forecast unchanged from €20.4b at last update. Net income forecast to grow 57% next year vs 35% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Finland. Consensus price target down from €21.60 to €20.84. Share price fell 9.6% to €13.27 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Oct 24
Third quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: €0.03 (down from €0.70 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: €5.62b (down 5.8% from 3Q 2023). Net income: €23.0m (down 96% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 0.4% (down from 9.0% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 12%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 76%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.6% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 23% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 34% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 16
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from €0.391 to €0.34 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €20.3b. Net income forecast to shrink 27% next year vs 19% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Finland . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €22.14. Share price was steady at €16.19 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 24
Upcoming dividend of €0.60 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 01 October 2024. Payment date: 09 October 2024. Payout ratio is on the higher end at 96%, and the cash payout ratio is above 100%. Trailing yield: 7.3%. Within top quartile of Finnish dividend payers (6.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (6.6%). Price Target Changed • Sep 16
Price target decreased by 7.8% to €22.51 Down from €24.43, the current price target is an average from 20 analysts. New target price is 41% above last closing price of €16.00. Stock is down 56% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.44 for next year compared to €1.87 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 11
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to €16.06, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 15x. Average forward P/E is 5x in the Oil and Gas industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 67% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 11
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from €0.825 to €0.732 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €20.7b. Net income forecast to shrink 5.7% next year vs 5.8% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Finland . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €23.96. Share price fell 16% to €16.06 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jul 26
Second quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Second quarter 2024 results: €0.19 loss per share (down from €0.34 profit in 2Q 2023). Revenue: €4.64b (down 13% from 2Q 2023). Net loss: €144.0m (down 156% from profit in 2Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 37%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.2% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 9% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 30% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 25
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 12%, EPS downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast increased from €19.4b to €21.8b. EPS estimate fell from €1.15 to €1.06. Net income forecast to shrink 28% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Finland . Consensus price target down from €25.14 to €24.34. Share price fell 2.6% to €17.30 over the past week. Announcement • Jun 14
Neste Corporation Announces Resignation of Heikki Malinen as Member of the Board of Directors Neste Corporation announced Heikki Malinen, a member of the board of directors of the company has announced his resignation from the board of the company as of 13 June 2024. The reason for the resignation is his appointment as Neste’s President and CEO as of 2 November 2024, at the latest. After Malinen’s resignation Neste’s Board comprises nine members. Announcement • Jun 08
Neste Corporation Appoints Nomination Board Neste Corporation announced that the following members have been appointed to the Shareholders' Nomination Board: Director General Maija Strandberg of the Ownership Steering Department in the Prime Minister's Office of Finland, as the Chair, and Senior Vice President, Investments Timo Sallinen of Varma Mutual Pension Insurance Company and President and CEO Jouko Pölönen of Ilmarinen Mutual Pension Insurance Company, as its members. Matti Kähkönen, the Chair of Neste's Board of Directors, acts as an expert to the Nomination Board. The Shareholders' Nomination Board is responsible for preparing and presenting proposals to the AGM concerning Board members as well as the remuneration and the number of Board members. The Nomination Board shall forward its proposals to Neste's Board of Directors by 31 January 2025. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 18
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to €18.92, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Oil and Gas industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 60% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €34.43 per share. Major Estimate Revision • May 15
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from €21.2b to €20.8b. EPS estimate also fell from €1.75 per share to €1.51 per share. Net income forecast to grow 1.8% next year vs 2.2% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Finland. Consensus price target down from €32.89 to €29.93. Share price fell 13% to €18.88 over the past week. Announcement • May 09
Neste Corporation Announces Change in the Executive Committee Neste Corporation announced that Katja Wodjereck, Executive Vice President, Renewable Products business unit and a member of the Executive Committee since 1 April 2023 steps down from her position as of May 8, 2024 and leaves the company to pursue other opportunities. Carl Nyberg, Executive Vice President, Renewables Supply Chain and Sustainability and a member of the Executive Committee since 2019, will take the interim lead in the Renewable Products business in addition to his existing responsibilities. Price Target Changed • May 04
Price target decreased by 7.4% to €33.51 Down from €36.20, the current price target is an average from 21 analysts. New target price is 52% above last closing price of €22.07. Stock is down 48% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €1.83 for next year compared to €1.87 last year. Announcement • Apr 30
Neste Corporation Announces Resignation of Matti Lehmus as President The Board of Directors of Neste Corporation and Matti Lehmus, President and CEO since May 2022, have reached a mutual agreement that Matti Lehmus will leave his position as the President. In order to secure an orderly transition to the new President and CEO, Lehmus will continue as President and CEO until his successor starts. The Board of Directors has initiated a search process for a new President and CEO. 
