Neste Oyj Just Reported A Surprise Loss: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a mediocre week for Neste Oyj (HEL:NESTE) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to €10.47 in the week since its latest yearly results. Revenues came in at €21b, in line with estimates, while Neste Oyj reported a statutory loss of €0.12 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Neste Oyj after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Neste Oyj

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Neste Oyj's 15 analysts is for revenues of €21.6b in 2025. This reflects an okay 4.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Neste Oyj forecast to report a statutory profit of €0.48 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €21.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.92 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 13% to €15.90, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Neste Oyj at €26.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €11.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Neste Oyj's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 0.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it's pretty clear that Neste Oyj is still expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Neste Oyj. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Their estimates also suggest that Neste Oyj's revenue is expected to perform better than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Neste Oyj analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Neste Oyj .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.