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CareDx, IncNasdaqGM:CDNA Stock Report

Market Cap US$780.8m
Share Price
US$14.28
My Fair Value
US$21.83
34.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
1Y-37.9%
7D-2.0%
Portfolio Value
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CareDx, Inc

NasdaqGM:CDNA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$780.8m

CareDx (CDNA) Stock Overview

Engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers in the United States and internationally. More details

CDNA fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation2/6
Future Growth1/6
Past Performance2/6
Financial Health6/6
Dividends0/6

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (13.1x) is below the US market (18.8x)

Revenue is forecast to grow 11.56% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

High level of non-cash earnings

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 23.4% per year for the next 3 years


CDNA Community Fair Values

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CareDx

New Medicare Policies Will Erode Margins Despite Digital Gains

Key Takeaways Imminent shifts in reimbursement policies and industry consolidation threaten CareDx's pricing power, gross margins, and future revenue scalability. Growing regulatory scrutiny and increased competition in transplant diagnostics may slow market share gains and place long-term pressure on earnings momentum.
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US$14
FV
2.0% overvalued intrinsic discount
12.26%
Revenue growth p.a.
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CareDx

AlloSure And AlloMap Will Boost Molecular Transplant Care Despite Hurdles

Key Takeaways Breakthroughs in AI-driven diagnostics, digital health expansion, and strong clinical validation position CareDx for outsized revenue growth and margin acceleration beyond current forecasts. Advanced digitization and integration with major healthcare platforms streamline operations, enhancing net margins, cash flow, and creating sticky, high-margin recurring revenue streams.
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US$28
FV
49.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
14.04%
Revenue growth p.a.
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CareDx

Rising Organ Transplant Demand And AI Diagnostics Will Create Opportunity

Key Takeaways Growing demand for core testing services and expansion into AI-driven diagnostics and digital health are driving recurring, high-margin revenue and supporting improved earnings stability. Enhanced payer coverage and operational efficiencies position CareDx for sustained profitability and margin expansion through diversified revenue streams and lower operating costs.
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US$21.83
FV
34.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
12.54%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
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3users have followed this narrative
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CareDx, Inc Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for CareDx
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$14.28
52 Week HighUS$26.37
52 Week LowUS$10.96
Beta2.37
1 Month Change-3.90%
3 Month Change16.24%
1 Year Change-37.86%
3 Year Change-25.59%
5 Year Change-72.73%
Change since IPO42.80%

Recent News & Updates

CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Share Price Boosted 28% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too

Sep 19
CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Share Price Boosted 28% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too

Recent updates

CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Share Price Boosted 28% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too

Sep 19
CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Share Price Boosted 28% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA)

Aug 27
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA)

The Play On CareDx

Aug 18

The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Revenues Yet As Shares Tumble 32%

Jul 23
The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Revenues Yet As Shares Tumble 32%

Is There An Opportunity With CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) 28% Undervaluation?

May 02
Is There An Opportunity With CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) 28% Undervaluation?
User avatar

AlloMap Testing And OPTN Project Will Expand Markets Despite Risks

CareDx's growth fueled by expanded testing services and strategic investments aims to improve margins and revenue cycle management.

CareDx: Some Litigation Clouds Have Cleared

Mar 13

Why CareDx's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem

Mar 11
Why CareDx's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem

CareDx: Too Risky For Me

Dec 30

The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Revenues Yet As Shares Tumble 26%

Nov 05
The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Revenues Yet As Shares Tumble 26%

CareDx Resolves Key Issues: Poised For Growth In Transplant Diagnostics

Sep 29

CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Share Price Boosted 34% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too

Aug 01
CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Share Price Boosted 34% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too

CareDx: Benefiting From Some Certainty

Jul 15

Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) 28% Share Price Plunge

Apr 27
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) 28% Share Price Plunge

CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Share Price Boosted 40% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too

Mar 02
CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Share Price Boosted 40% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too

CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Shares Bounce 26% But Its Business Still Trails The Industry

Dec 27
CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Shares Bounce 26% But Its Business Still Trails The Industry

CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Share Price Boosted 26% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too

Dec 27
CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Share Price Boosted 26% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too

Benign Growth For CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA) Underpins Its Share Price

Jun 29
Benign Growth For CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA) Underpins Its Share Price

Analyst Forecasts Just Became More Bearish On CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA)

May 16
Analyst Forecasts Just Became More Bearish On CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA)

Shareholder Returns

CDNAUS BiotechsUS Market
7D-2.0%1.3%2.6%
1Y-37.9%3.4%19.0%

Return vs Industry: CDNA underperformed the US Biotechs industry which returned 3.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CDNA underperformed the US Market which returned 18.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is CDNA's price volatile compared to industry and market?
CDNA volatility
CDNA Average Weekly Movement6.6%
Biotechs Industry Average Movement10.7%
Market Average Movement6.5%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market17.3%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.0%

Stable Share Price: CDNA has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.

Volatility Over Time: CDNA's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
1998647John Hannacaredx.com

CareDx, Inc. engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers in the United States and internationally. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company offers Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software.

CareDx, Inc Fundamentals Summary

How do CareDx's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
CDNA fundamental statistics
Market capUS$780.84m
Earnings (TTM)US$58.14m
Revenue (TTM)US$340.83m
13.1x
P/E Ratio
2.2x
P/S Ratio

Is CDNA overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
CDNA income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$340.83m
Cost of RevenueUS$112.77m
Gross ProfitUS$228.06m
Other ExpensesUS$169.92m
EarningsUS$58.14m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2025

Next Earnings Date

Nov 04, 2025

Earnings per share (EPS)1.09
Gross Margin66.91%
Net Profit Margin17.06%
Debt/Equity Ratio0%

How did CDNA perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/10/29 20:30
End of Day Share Price 2025/10/29 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

CareDx, Inc is covered by 14 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Mark MassaroBTIG
William BonelloCraig-Hallum Capital Group LLC
Matthew SykesGoldman Sachs