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Lundin Gold Inc.TSX:LUG Stock Report

Market Cap CA$19.2b
Share Price
CA$80.44
My Fair Value
CA$68
18.9% overvalued intrinsic discount
1Y196.9%
7D3.9%
Portfolio Value
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Lundin Gold Inc.

TSX:LUG Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$19.2b

Lundin Gold (LUG) Stock Overview

Operates as a mining company in Canada. More details

LUG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation1/6
Future Growth2/6
Past Performance6/6
Financial Health6/6
Dividends3/6

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 4.99% per year

Earnings grew by 172.1% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months


LUG Community Fair Values

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See what 48 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.

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Lundin Gold

Record Gold And Ecuador Mining Will Yield Mixed Outcomes

Key Takeaways Investor optimism may be overlooking risks from volatile gold prices, expansion assumptions, and reliance on a single asset, exposing future revenue and earnings to downside. High ESG ratings and strong cash flow could mask rising regulatory costs and operational pressures that threaten long-term margins and shareholder returns.
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CA$67.67
FV
18.9% overvalued intrinsic discount
6.72%
Revenue growth p.a.
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5 days ago author updated this narrative
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Lundin Gold

Secular Trends And Exploration Will Transform Fruta Del Norte

Key Takeaways New plant optimization, ongoing productivity gains, and exploration successes could drive production and revenues well above current forecasts, boosting long-term cash flows and asset value. Exceptional gold grades, major new copper-gold discoveries, strategic M&A potential, and strong ESG performance position Lundin Gold for valuation upside and lower financing costs.
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CA$85.00
FV
5.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
6.78%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
1users have followed this narrative
3 days ago author updated this narrative
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Lundin Gold

Gold Price Normalization And Rising Costs Will Hurt Profitability

Key Takeaways Profitability is heavily dependent on high gold prices and faces significant exposure to commodity volatility, operational risks in Ecuador, and structural demand shifts toward alternative assets. Escalating ESG requirements, rising input costs, and local scrutiny will increase expenses, regulatory burdens, and the risk of delays, threatening long-term growth and earnings stability.
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CA$50.00
FV
60.9% overvalued intrinsic discount
-2.41%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
0users have followed this narrative
3 days ago author updated this narrative
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Lundin Gold Inc. Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for Lundin Gold
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceCA$80.44
52 Week HighCA$83.78
52 Week LowCA$25.76
Beta0.90
1 Month Change25.53%
3 Month Change33.55%
1 Year Change196.94%
3 Year Change761.24%
5 Year Change618.21%
Change since IPO292.01%

Recent News & Updates

The Strong Earnings Posted By Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) Are A Good Indication Of The Strength Of The Business

Aug 16
The Strong Earnings Posted By Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) Are A Good Indication Of The Strength Of The Business

Recent updates

The Strong Earnings Posted By Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) Are A Good Indication Of The Strength Of The Business

Aug 16
The Strong Earnings Posted By Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) Are A Good Indication Of The Strength Of The Business

Here's Why Lundin Gold Inc.'s (TSE:LUG) CEO May Deserve A Raise

May 02
Here's Why Lundin Gold Inc.'s (TSE:LUG) CEO May Deserve A Raise

There's Reason For Concern Over Lundin Gold Inc.'s (TSE:LUG) Massive 33% Price Jump

Apr 17
There's Reason For Concern Over Lundin Gold Inc.'s (TSE:LUG) Massive 33% Price Jump

If EPS Growth Is Important To You, Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) Presents An Opportunity

Mar 26
If EPS Growth Is Important To You, Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) Presents An Opportunity

Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) Is Increasing Its Dividend To $0.43

Feb 27
Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) Is Increasing Its Dividend To $0.43

Returns On Capital Are A Standout For Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG)

Feb 19
Returns On Capital Are A Standout For Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG)
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Plant Expansion And New Jameson Cells Will Improve Gold Recovery Rates

Exploration and plant upgrades could enhance production efficiency and boost future revenues through higher reserves and improved recovery rates.

Lundin Gold Inc.'s (TSE:LUG) P/E Is Still On The Mark Following 29% Share Price Bounce

Feb 06
Lundin Gold Inc.'s (TSE:LUG) P/E Is Still On The Mark Following 29% Share Price Bounce

Are Investors Undervaluing Lundin Gold Inc. (TSE:LUG) By 47%?

Jan 10
Are Investors Undervaluing Lundin Gold Inc. (TSE:LUG) By 47%?

Is Now The Time To Put Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) On Your Watchlist?

Dec 10
Is Now The Time To Put Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) On Your Watchlist?

Shareholders Can Be Confident That Lundin Gold's (TSE:LUG) Earnings Are High Quality

Nov 15
Shareholders Can Be Confident That Lundin Gold's (TSE:LUG) Earnings Are High Quality

Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Lundin Gold Inc.'s (TSE:LUG) P/E

Nov 07
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Lundin Gold Inc.'s (TSE:LUG) P/E

Does Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Sep 23
Does Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

A Look At The Fair Value Of Lundin Gold Inc. (TSE:LUG)

Sep 09
A Look At The Fair Value Of Lundin Gold Inc. (TSE:LUG)

Shareholder Returns

LUGCA Metals and MiningCA Market
7D3.9%1.9%-5.1%
1Y196.9%38.7%11.5%

Return vs Industry: LUG exceeded the Canadian Metals and Mining industry which returned 38.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: LUG exceeded the Canadian Market which returned 11.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is LUG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
LUG volatility
LUG Average Weekly Movement6.6%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement11.0%
Market Average Movement8.6%
10% most volatile stocks in CA Market18.5%
10% least volatile stocks in CA Market3.0%

Stable Share Price: LUG has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the Canadian market.

Volatility Over Time: LUG's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
1986n/aRon Hochsteinwww.lundingold.com

Lundin Gold Inc. operates as a mining company in Canada. The company holds interests in 28 metallic mineral concessions and three construction material concessions covering an area of approximately 64,454 hectares located in Southeast Ecuador. It primary holds 100% interests in the Fruta del Norte gold project that comprising seven concessions covering an area of approximately 5,566 hectares located near the city of Loja in Ecuador.

Lundin Gold Inc. Fundamentals Summary

How do Lundin Gold's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
LUG fundamental statistics
Market capCA$19.18b
Earnings (TTM)CA$849.20m
Revenue (TTM)CA$2.04b
22.9x
P/E Ratio
9.5x
P/S Ratio

Is LUG overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
LUG income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$1.47b
Cost of RevenueUS$375.39m
Gross ProfitUS$1.10b
Other ExpensesUS$483.62m
EarningsUS$615.09m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2025

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)2.55
Gross Margin74.53%
Net Profit Margin41.73%
Debt/Equity Ratio0%

How did LUG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.2%
Current Dividend Yield
45%
Payout Ratio

Does LUG pay a reliable dividends?

See LUG dividend history and benchmarks
When do you need to buy LUG by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Lundin Gold dividend dates
Ex Dividend DateSep 10 2025
Dividend Pay DateSep 25 2025
Days until Ex dividend22 days
Days until Dividend pay date37 days

Does LUG pay a reliable dividends?

See LUG dividend history and benchmarks

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/08/18 05:24
End of Day Share Price 2025/08/18 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Lundin Gold Inc. is covered by 32 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Brian QuastBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Carey MacRuryCanaccord Genuity
Anita SoniCIBC Capital Markets