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LUG

Lundin Gold TSX:LUG Stock Report

Last Price

CA$10.38

Market Cap

CA$2.4b

7D

21.8%

1Y

6.1%

Updated

04 Oct, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
LUG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation4/6
Future Growth0/6
Past Performance3/6
Financial Health5/6
Dividends2/6

LUG Stock Overview

Lundin Gold Inc. operates as a mining company in Canada.

Lundin Gold Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Lundin Gold
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceCA$10.38
52 Week HighCA$12.73
52 Week LowCA$7.80
Beta0.98
1 Month Change17.02%
3 Month Change21.69%
1 Year Change6.14%
3 Year Change27.21%
5 Year Change94.75%
Change since IPO-81.16%

Recent News & Updates

Sep 27
Here's Why Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Here's Why Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...

Aug 30
We Like Lundin Gold's (TSE:LUG) Returns And Here's How They're Trending

We Like Lundin Gold's (TSE:LUG) Returns And Here's How They're Trending

If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. Typically, we'll want to notice a...

Shareholder Returns

LUGCA Metals and MiningCA Market
7D21.8%12.9%5.7%
1Y6.1%-5.0%-2.5%

Return vs Industry: LUG exceeded the Canadian Metals and Mining industry which returned -6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: LUG exceeded the Canadian Market which returned -4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is LUG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
LUG volatility
LUG Average Weekly Movement6.1%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement11.8%
Market Average Movement10.1%
10% most volatile stocks in CA Market18.3%
10% least volatile stocks in CA Market3.8%

Stable Share Price: LUG is less volatile than 75% of Canadian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: LUG's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
1986n/aRon Hochsteinhttps://www.lundingold.com

Lundin Gold Inc. operates as a mining company in Canada. The company holds interests in 27 metallic mineral concessions and three construction material concessions covering an area of approximately 64,270 hectares located in Southeast Ecuador. It primary holds interests in the Fruta del Norte gold project comprising seven concessions covering an area of approximately 5,566 hectares located near the city of Loja in Ecuador.

Lundin Gold Fundamentals Summary

How do Lundin Gold's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
LUG fundamental statistics
Market CapCA$2.44b
Earnings (TTM)CA$223.21m
Revenue (TTM)CA$1.05b

10.9x

P/E Ratio

2.3x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
LUG income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$771.47m
Cost of RevenueUS$281.76m
Gross ProfitUS$489.71m
Other ExpensesUS$325.10m
EarningsUS$164.61m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Nov 08, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)0.70
Gross Margin63.48%
Net Profit Margin21.34%
Debt/Equity Ratio70.9%

How did LUG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

5.2%

Current Dividend Yield

n/a

Payout Ratio
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is LUG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LUG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

LUG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA4.7x
PEG Ratio-0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LUG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

LUG PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for LUG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.3x
TFPM Triple Flag Precious Metals
44.2x6.9%CA$2.7b
SSRM SSR Mining
10x1.1%CA$4.2b
KNT K92 Mining
35.2x43.7%CA$1.9b
EDV Endeavour Mining
31.8x24.7%CA$6.2b
LUG Lundin Gold
10.9x-17.4%CA$2.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LUG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the peer average (30.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LUG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LUG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (9.5x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LUG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LUG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.9x
Fair PE Ratio7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LUG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LUG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LUG (CA$10.38) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$21.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LUG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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Future Growth

How is Lundin Gold forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


-17.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: LUG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-17.4% per year).

Earnings vs Market: LUG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-17.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: LUG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: LUG's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-3.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: LUG's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3.1% per year).


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if LUG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


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Past Performance

How has Lundin Gold performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


50.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: LUG has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: LUG's current net profit margins (21.3%) are lower than last year (24.5%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: LUG has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 50.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: LUG's earnings growth over the past year (1.3%) is below its 5-year average (50.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: LUG earnings growth over the past year (1.3%) exceeded the Metals and Mining industry -7.3%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: LUG's Return on Equity (18.1%) is considered low.


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Financial Health

How is Lundin Gold's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: LUG's short term assets ($569.3M) exceed its short term liabilities ($315.4M).

Long Term Liabilities: LUG's short term assets ($569.3M) exceed its long term liabilities ($438.4M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: LUG's net debt to equity ratio (37.9%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: LUG's debt to equity ratio has increased from 67.5% to 70.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: LUG's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (60.2%).

Interest Coverage: LUG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (9.6x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Lundin Gold current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


5.23%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Lundin Gold Dividend Yield vs Market
How does Lundin Gold dividend yield compare to the market?
SegmentDividend Yield
Company (Lundin Gold)5.2%
Market Bottom 25% (CA)1.9%
Market Top 25% (CA)5.9%
Industry Average (Metals and Mining)2.5%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Lundin Gold)3.9%

Notable Dividend: LUG's dividend (5.23%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Canadian market (1.95%).

High Dividend: LUG's dividend (5.23%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Canadian market (5.99%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Too early to tell whether LUG's dividend payments have been stable as they only just started paying a dividend.

Growing Dividend: Too early to tell if LUG's dividend payments are increasing as they only just started paying a dividend.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (28%), LUG's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.


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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Ron Hochstein (61 yo)

18.33yrs

Tenure

US$2,272,718

Compensation

Mr. Ronald F. Hochstein, also known as Ron, MBA, P.Eng., B.Sc. (Mineral Process Engineering), serves as an Independent Chairman of the Board of Directors of Denison Mines Corp. since May 2021. He serves as...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Ron Hochstein's Compensation vs Lundin Gold Earnings
How has Ron Hochstein's remuneration changed compared to Lundin Gold's earnings?
DateTotal Comp.SalaryCompany Earnings
Jun 30 2022n/an/a

US$165m

Mar 31 2022n/an/a

US$159m

Dec 31 2021US$2mUS$535k

US$221m

Sep 30 2021n/an/a

US$191m

Jun 30 2021n/an/a

US$163m

Mar 31 2021n/an/a

US$48m

Dec 31 2020US$3mUS$499k

-US$47m

Sep 30 2020n/an/a

-US$87m

Jun 30 2020n/an/a

-US$154m

Mar 31 2020n/an/a

-US$121m

Dec 31 2019US$2mUS$505k

-US$119m

Sep 30 2019n/an/a

-US$102m

Jun 30 2019n/an/a

-US$55m

Mar 31 2019n/an/a

-US$4m

Dec 31 2018US$1mUS$464k

-US$22m

Sep 30 2018n/an/a

-US$18m

Jun 30 2018n/an/a

-US$41m

Mar 31 2018n/an/a

-US$60m

Dec 31 2017US$1mUS$358k

-US$41m

Sep 30 2017n/an/a

-US$46m

Jun 30 2017n/an/a

-US$41m

Mar 31 2017n/an/a

-US$54m

Dec 31 2016US$851kUS$302k

-US$63m

Sep 30 2016n/an/a

-US$52m

Jun 30 2016n/an/a

-US$52m

Mar 31 2016n/an/a

-US$55m

Dec 31 2015US$1mUS$274k

-US$45m

Compensation vs Market: Ron's total compensation ($USD2.27M) is about average for companies of similar size in the Canadian market ($USD2.27M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Ron's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: LUG's management team is seasoned and experienced (6.8 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: LUG's board of directors are considered experienced (5 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: LUG insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

TSX:LUG Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
DateValueNameEntityRoleSharesMax Price
20 Sep 22BuyCA$155,856Ronald HochsteinIndividual16,235CA$9.60
02 Sep 22BuyCA$1,928,498Lorito Holdings S.à R.L.Company220,000CA$8.77
01 Sep 22BuyCA$395,497Jack O. LundinIndividual44,700CA$8.85
31 Aug 22BuyCA$1,590,936Lorito Holdings S.à R.L.Company181,000CA$8.79
19 May 22BuyCA$4,485,831Newcrest Mining LimitedCompany430,502CA$10.42
13 May 22BuyCA$2,290,797Charles Ashley HeppenstallIndividual235,800CA$9.72
13 May 22SellCA$2,290,797Charles Ashley HeppenstallIndividual235,800CA$9.72
21 Mar 22BuyCA$524,157Newcrest Mining LimitedCompany46,758CA$11.21
11 Mar 22SellCA$254,150Ian GibbsIndividual23,000CA$11.05
04 Mar 22SellCA$262,338David DicaireIndividual25,000CA$10.99
01 Mar 22SellCA$303,536David DicaireIndividual30,000CA$10.22
24 Nov 21BuyCA$2,408,409Newcrest Mining LimitedCompany202,728CA$11.88

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of LUG?
Owner TypeNumber of SharesOwnership Percentage
Individual Insiders1,693,3800.7%
General Public30,319,51612.9%
Private Companies62,239,12126.5%
Institutions65,682,19027.9%
Public Companies75,231,57732.0%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 84.36% of the company
OwnershipNameSharesCurrent ValueChange %Portfolio %
31.99%
Newcrest Mining Limited
75,231,577$780.9m0.58%no data
16.39%
Zebra Holdings And Investments S.à R.L.
38,537,214$400.0m0%no data
10.02%
Nemesia S.À R.L.
23,551,907$244.5m0%no data
6.2%
BlackRock, Inc.
14,584,187$151.4m0%no data
4.53%
CD Capital Asset Management Ltd.
10,660,000$110.7m0%84.83%
4.15%
Orion Resource Partners
9,748,726$101.2m0%10.54%
2.15%
Van Eck Associates Corporation
5,051,849$52.4m1.54%0.07%
1.95%
Invesco Ltd.
4,577,962$47.5m0%0.01%
1.23%
Jupiter Fund Management Plc
2,893,013$30.0m0%0.07%
0.85%
FMR LLC
2,001,732$20.8m0.02%no data
0.6%
Fidelity International Ltd
1,411,952$14.7m0%0.01%
0.58%
Orion Mine Finance Management II Limited
1,371,974$14.2m0%no data
0.47%
GAMCO Investors, Inc.
1,110,000$11.5m9.9%0.03%
0.39%
Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management
916,887$9.5m16.78%no data
0.39%
ALPS Advisors, Inc.
909,222$9.4m17%0.05%
0.38%
Rothschild & Cie Gestion
882,009$9.2m141.42%0.18%
0.29%
1832 Asset Management L.P.
683,600$7.1m0%0.01%
0.29%
IG Investment Management, Ltd.
676,453$7.0m0%0.02%
0.25%
Mackenzie Financial Corporation
587,453$6.1m0.78%0.01%
0.25%
Ronald Hochstein
585,835$6.1m2.85%no data
0.23%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
548,667$5.7m12.95%no data
0.23%
American Century Investment Management Inc
545,426$5.7m8.37%no data
0.2%
GADD & Cie Luxembourg S.A.
475,823$4.9m0%2.69%
0.19%
Charles Ashley Heppenstall
435,800$4.5m12.96%no data
0.17%
BMO Asset Management Corp.
404,640$4.2m-0.01%no data

Company Information

Lundin Gold Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Lundin Gold Inc.
  • Ticker: LUG
  • Exchange: TSX
  • Founded: 1986
  • Industry: Gold
  • Sector: Materials
  • Implied Market Cap: CA$2.441b
  • Shares outstanding: 235.17m
  • Website: https://www.lundingold.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Lundin Gold Inc.
  • 885 West Georgia Street
  • Suite 2000
  • Vancouver
  • British Columbia
  • V6C 3E8
  • Canada


Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
LUGTSX (The Toronto Stock Exchange)YesCommon SharesCACADJan 1989
F1YNDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon SharesDEEURJan 1989
LUGD.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesCommon SharesUSUSDJan 1989
LUGOM (OMX Nordic Exchange Stockholm)YesCommon SharesSESEKJan 1989
0R4MLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon SharesGBSEKJan 1989
LUGSBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesCommon SharesGBSEKJan 1989

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/10/04 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/10/04 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.