Lundin Gold Inc.

TSX:LUG Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$7.4b

Lundin Gold Valuation

Is LUG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LUG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LUG (CA$30.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$57.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LUG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LUG?

Key metric: As LUG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LUG. This is calculated by dividing LUG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LUG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.8x
EarningsUS$307.97m
Market CapUS$5.17b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LUG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LUG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.8x
AGI Alamos Gold
31.2x38.9%CA$10.9b
ELD Eldorado Gold
10.6x27.3%CA$4.5b
IMG IAMGOLD
4x-2.0%CA$4.2b
EQX Equinox Gold
9.4x21.2%CA$3.4b
LUG Lundin Gold
16.7x23.5%CA$7.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LUG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x) compared to the peer average (13.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LUG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

37 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SLI Standard Lithium
2.3xn/aUS$246.32m
THX Thor Explorations
2.7x2.5%US$134.68m
APM Andean Precious Metals
2.2x-42.9%US$124.91m
STGO Steppe Gold
2x-11.5%US$110.67m
LUG 16.8xIndustry Avg. 13.1xNo. of Companies37PE01632486480+
37 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LUG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LUG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LUG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.8x
Fair PE Ratio22.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LUG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LUG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$30.90
CA$36.04
+16.6%
11.1%CA$43.00CA$29.00n/a13
Dec ’25CA$32.56
CA$36.02
+10.6%
10.2%CA$43.00CA$29.00n/a13
Nov ’25CA$33.36
CA$32.69
-2.0%
13.8%CA$42.00CA$25.50n/a13
Oct ’25CA$29.55
CA$29.73
+0.6%
9.9%CA$35.00CA$25.50n/a13
Sep ’25CA$27.07
CA$27.27
+0.7%
8.1%CA$32.00CA$25.00n/a13
Aug ’25CA$23.74
CA$26.71
+12.5%
7.6%CA$30.75CA$23.50n/a13
Jul ’25CA$20.21
CA$24.44
+20.9%
8.2%CA$28.00CA$21.00n/a13
Jun ’25CA$20.13
CA$24.06
+19.5%
8.6%CA$28.00CA$21.00n/a13
May ’25CA$18.79
CA$23.08
+22.8%
10.9%CA$28.00CA$20.00n/a13
Apr ’25CA$19.45
CA$20.65
+6.1%
6.4%CA$22.75CA$17.50n/a13
Mar ’25CA$16.28
CA$20.49
+25.9%
6.5%CA$22.75CA$17.50n/a13
Feb ’25CA$16.68
CA$20.53
+23.1%
6.7%CA$22.75CA$17.50n/a12
Jan ’25CA$16.54
CA$20.53
+24.1%
4.4%CA$22.00CA$19.00n/a10
Dec ’24CA$16.59
CA$20.18
+21.7%
4.7%CA$22.00CA$19.00CA$32.5611
Nov ’24CA$16.85
CA$20.30
+20.4%
4.7%CA$22.00CA$19.00CA$33.3611
Oct ’24CA$15.25
CA$20.27
+32.9%
4.9%CA$22.00CA$19.00CA$29.5512
Sep ’24CA$15.86
CA$20.30
+28.0%
5.1%CA$22.00CA$19.00CA$27.0711
Aug ’24CA$17.48
CA$20.43
+16.8%
4.8%CA$22.00CA$19.00CA$23.7410
Jul ’24CA$15.85
CA$20.50
+29.3%
5.0%CA$22.25CA$19.00CA$20.2110
Jun ’24CA$17.41
CA$20.56
+18.1%
4.6%CA$22.25CA$19.00CA$20.139
May ’24CA$17.38
CA$20.19
+16.2%
7.6%CA$22.25CA$16.50CA$18.799
Apr ’24CA$15.78
CA$18.11
+14.8%
8.1%CA$20.00CA$15.00CA$19.459
Mar ’24CA$14.74
CA$17.78
+20.6%
7.5%CA$20.00CA$15.00CA$16.289
Feb ’24CA$15.60
CA$16.53
+5.9%
7.5%CA$19.00CA$15.00CA$16.689
Jan ’24CA$13.23
CA$14.63
+10.5%
8.0%CA$16.00CA$12.00CA$16.5410
Dec ’23CA$13.74
CA$13.93
+1.3%
10.1%CA$15.50CA$11.50CA$16.5910

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 22:51
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Lundin Gold Inc. is covered by 34 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Brian QuastBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Carey MacRuryCanaccord Genuity
Anita SoniCIBC Capital Markets