Lundin Gold Valuation

Is LUG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LUG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LUG (CA$19.69) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$19.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LUG is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LUG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

LUG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA6.9x
PEG Ratio0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LUG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LUG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average58.3x
TFPM Triple Flag Precious Metals
96x65.3%CA$4.7b
ELD Eldorado Gold
25.4x31.3%CA$4.3b
AGI Alamos Gold
32.4x12.8%CA$9.0b
SSL Sandstorm Gold
79.2x15.7%CA$2.4b
LUG Lundin Gold
20.3x21.7%CA$4.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LUG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the peer average (58.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LUG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a32.3%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a32.3%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LUG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (18x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LUG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LUG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.3x
Fair PE Ratio21.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LUG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LUG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$19.69
CA$23.58
+19.7%
9.2%CA$28.00CA$21.00n/a13
May ’25CA$18.79
CA$23.08
+22.8%
10.9%CA$28.00CA$20.00n/a13
Apr ’25CA$19.45
CA$20.65
+6.1%
6.4%CA$22.75CA$17.50n/a13
Mar ’25CA$16.28
CA$20.49
+25.9%
6.5%CA$22.75CA$17.50n/a13
Feb ’25CA$16.68
CA$20.53
+23.1%
6.7%CA$22.75CA$17.50n/a12
Jan ’25CA$16.54
CA$20.53
+24.1%
4.4%CA$22.00CA$19.00n/a10
Dec ’24CA$16.59
CA$20.18
+21.7%
4.7%CA$22.00CA$19.00n/a11
Nov ’24CA$16.85
CA$20.30
+20.4%
4.7%CA$22.00CA$19.00n/a11
Oct ’24CA$15.25
CA$20.27
+32.9%
4.9%CA$22.00CA$19.00n/a12
Sep ’24CA$15.86
CA$20.30
+28.0%
5.1%CA$22.00CA$19.00n/a11
Aug ’24CA$17.48
CA$20.43
+16.8%
4.8%CA$22.00CA$19.00n/a10
Jul ’24CA$15.85
CA$20.50
+29.3%
5.0%CA$22.25CA$19.00n/a10
Jun ’24CA$17.41
CA$20.56
+18.1%
4.6%CA$22.25CA$19.00n/a9
May ’24CA$17.38
CA$20.19
+16.2%
7.6%CA$22.25CA$16.50CA$18.799
Apr ’24CA$15.78
CA$18.11
+14.8%
8.1%CA$20.00CA$15.00CA$19.459
Mar ’24CA$14.74
CA$17.78
+20.6%
7.5%CA$20.00CA$15.00CA$16.289
Feb ’24CA$15.60
CA$16.53
+5.9%
7.5%CA$19.00CA$15.00CA$16.689
Jan ’24CA$13.23
CA$14.63
+10.5%
8.0%CA$16.00CA$12.00CA$16.5410
Dec ’23CA$13.74
CA$13.93
+1.3%
10.1%CA$15.50CA$11.50CA$16.5910
Nov ’23CA$10.14
CA$13.14
+29.6%
12.3%CA$15.50CA$11.00CA$16.859
Oct ’23CA$9.60
CA$13.50
+40.7%
10.5%CA$15.50CA$11.50CA$15.259
Sep ’23CA$8.80
CA$13.75
+56.3%
10.2%CA$15.50CA$11.50CA$15.869
Aug ’23CA$8.55
CA$13.44
+57.2%
12.8%CA$15.50CA$10.50CA$17.489
Jul ’23CA$9.24
CA$14.58
+57.8%
5.7%CA$15.50CA$13.00CA$15.859
Jun ’23CA$10.01
CA$14.58
+45.7%
5.7%CA$15.50CA$13.00CA$17.419
May ’23CA$10.35
CA$14.28
+37.9%
6.1%CA$15.50CA$13.00CA$17.389

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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