Alamos Gold Inc.

TSX:AGI Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$10.4b

Alamos Gold Valuation

Is AGI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AGI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AGI (CA$25.69) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CA$3.2)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AGI is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AGI?

Key metric: As AGI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AGI. This is calculated by dividing AGI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AGI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio31.4x
EarningsUS$243.80m
Market CapUS$7.37b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AGI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AGI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.2x
LUG Lundin Gold
17.3x21.4%CA$7.2b
K Kinross Gold
16.1x-5.6%CA$16.8b
IMG IAMGOLD
4.2x-11.3%CA$4.2b
ELD Eldorado Gold
11.3x30.4%CA$4.6b
AGI Alamos Gold
31.4x29.2%CA$10.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AGI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.4x) compared to the peer average (12.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AGI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

35 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SLI Standard Lithium
2.7xn/aUS$293.46m
QRC Queen's Road Capital Investment
2.3xn/aUS$244.29m
APM Andean Precious Metals
2.5x-42.9%US$136.76m
THX Thor Explorations
4x9.9%US$128.05m
AGI 31.4xIndustry Avg. 12.9xNo. of Companies35PE01632486480+
35 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AGI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.4x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (13x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AGI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AGI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio31.4x
Fair PE Ratio25.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AGI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AGI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$25.69
CA$35.89
+39.7%
8.3%CA$40.19CA$32.34n/a8
Nov ’25CA$28.11
CA$35.79
+27.3%
8.7%CA$40.43CA$32.06n/a8
Oct ’25CA$27.25
CA$33.00
+21.1%
10.9%CA$40.06CA$29.26n/a8
Sep ’25CA$25.98
CA$28.60
+10.1%
13.7%CA$38.02CA$24.91n/a8
Aug ’25CA$24.08
CA$29.06
+20.7%
13.0%CA$38.07CA$25.63n/a8
Jul ’25CA$21.46
CA$26.31
+22.6%
4.4%CA$28.09CA$24.72n/a7
Jun ’25CA$22.79
CA$25.91
+13.7%
3.5%CA$27.23CA$24.79n/a7
May ’25CA$20.59
CA$24.76
+20.2%
12.4%CA$27.06CA$16.29n/a10
Apr ’25CA$19.70
CA$22.81
+15.8%
9.8%CA$26.01CA$18.52n/a10
Mar ’25CA$16.68
CA$21.68
+30.0%
9.7%CA$25.00CA$17.07n/a10
Feb ’25CA$16.99
CA$21.67
+27.5%
10.0%CA$24.86CA$17.00n/a10
Jan ’25CA$17.82
CA$20.51
+15.1%
10.6%CA$24.12CA$16.28n/a9
Dec ’24CA$20.05
CA$20.55
+2.5%
10.3%CA$24.98CA$16.86n/a10
Nov ’24CA$17.23
CA$20.40
+18.4%
10.9%CA$24.98CA$16.98CA$28.1110
Oct ’24CA$15.32
CA$19.98
+30.4%
11.2%CA$24.04CA$17.05CA$27.259
Sep ’24CA$16.86
CA$20.07
+19.0%
11.2%CA$24.15CA$17.12CA$25.989
Aug ’24CA$15.79
CA$19.84
+25.6%
11.2%CA$24.06CA$16.99CA$24.089
Jul ’24CA$15.78
CA$20.11
+27.4%
10.9%CA$24.18CA$16.56CA$21.469
Jun ’24CA$16.89
CA$20.07
+18.8%
10.2%CA$23.86CA$16.85CA$22.799
May ’24CA$17.68
CA$19.52
+10.4%
10.7%CA$23.98CA$16.93CA$20.599
Apr ’24CA$16.50
CA$17.37
+5.3%
8.6%CA$19.01CA$14.85CA$19.709
Mar ’24CA$14.20
CA$17.27
+21.6%
7.9%CA$19.12CA$15.03CA$16.689
Feb ’24CA$14.93
CA$16.28
+9.0%
9.9%CA$18.90CA$13.38CA$16.999
Jan ’24CA$13.69
CA$14.48
+5.8%
7.6%CA$16.15CA$12.86CA$17.829
Dec ’23CA$13.36
CA$14.20
+6.3%
9.6%CA$16.07CA$11.92CA$20.0510
Nov ’23CA$11.06
CA$14.05
+27.0%
11.1%CA$16.13CA$11.95CA$17.2310

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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