Alamos Gold Valuation

Is AGI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AGI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AGI (CA$23.26) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CA$19.61)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AGI is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AGI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AGI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA12.6x
PEG Ratio2.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AGI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AGI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average40.9x
K Kinross Gold
22.7x-7.4%CA$13.4b
LUG Lundin Gold
20.7x19.8%CA$4.8b
TFPM Triple Flag Precious Metals
93.8x65.3%CA$4.7b
ELD Eldorado Gold
26.3x22.8%CA$4.5b
AGI Alamos Gold
33.4x12.8%CA$9.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AGI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.4x) compared to the peer average (40.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AGI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a31.3%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a31.3%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AGI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.4x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (18.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AGI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AGI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio33.4x
Fair PE Ratio19.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AGI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AGI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$23.26
CA$25.81
+10.9%
3.5%CA$26.95CA$24.59n/a7
May ’25CA$20.59
CA$24.75
+20.2%
12.4%CA$27.06CA$16.29n/a10
Apr ’25CA$19.70
CA$22.79
+15.7%
9.8%CA$26.01CA$18.52n/a10
Mar ’25CA$16.68
CA$21.68
+30.0%
9.7%CA$25.00CA$17.07n/a10
Feb ’25CA$16.99
CA$21.67
+27.5%
10.0%CA$24.86CA$17.00n/a10
Jan ’25CA$17.82
CA$20.51
+15.1%
10.6%CA$24.12CA$16.28n/a9
Dec ’24CA$20.05
CA$20.55
+2.5%
10.3%CA$24.98CA$16.86n/a10
Nov ’24CA$17.23
CA$20.40
+18.4%
10.9%CA$24.98CA$16.98n/a10
Oct ’24CA$15.32
CA$19.98
+30.4%
11.2%CA$24.04CA$17.05n/a9
Sep ’24CA$16.86
CA$20.07
+19.0%
11.2%CA$24.15CA$17.12n/a9
Aug ’24CA$15.79
CA$19.84
+25.6%
11.2%CA$24.06CA$16.99n/a9
Jul ’24CA$15.78
CA$20.11
+27.4%
10.9%CA$24.18CA$16.56n/a9
Jun ’24CA$16.89
CA$20.07
+18.8%
10.2%CA$23.86CA$16.85n/a9
May ’24CA$17.68
CA$19.52
+10.4%
10.7%CA$23.98CA$16.93CA$20.599
Apr ’24CA$16.50
CA$17.37
+5.3%
8.6%CA$19.01CA$14.85CA$19.709
Mar ’24CA$14.20
CA$17.27
+21.6%
7.9%CA$19.12CA$15.03CA$16.689
Feb ’24CA$14.93
CA$16.28
+9.0%
9.9%CA$18.90CA$13.38CA$16.999
Jan ’24CA$13.69
CA$14.48
+5.8%
7.6%CA$16.15CA$12.86CA$17.829
Dec ’23CA$13.36
CA$14.20
+6.3%
9.6%CA$16.07CA$11.92CA$20.0510
Nov ’23CA$11.06
CA$14.05
+27.0%
11.1%CA$16.13CA$11.95CA$17.2310
Oct ’23CA$10.24
CA$13.98
+36.5%
13.7%CA$16.98CA$11.05CA$15.3210
Sep ’23CA$9.09
CA$13.62
+49.8%
12.3%CA$16.26CA$10.58CA$16.8610
Aug ’23CA$10.12
CA$13.44
+32.8%
12.5%CA$16.00CA$10.41CA$15.7910
Jul ’23CA$9.03
CA$13.93
+54.3%
14.6%CA$18.24CA$10.58CA$15.7810
Jun ’23CA$9.79
CA$13.39
+36.8%
14.3%CA$17.29CA$9.99CA$16.8910
May ’23CA$9.98
CA$13.36
+33.9%
14.7%CA$17.54CA$10.26CA$17.6811

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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