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Alphabet
BL
BlackGoat
Community Contributor
Alphabet: The Under-appreciated Compounder Hiding in Plain Sight
Summary Google trades at ~18× forward earnings; the cheapest among the Magnificent 7 Market is too focused on AI threats to Search and antitrust noise Meanwhile, Google is executing across AI, Cloud, and YouTube Key AI differentiator: unmatched distribution across 3B+ users via Search, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome, and Cloud Quietly building a world-class AI infrastructure behind the scenes; including proprietary TPUs and a vertically integrated stack YouTube generated $8.93B in Q1 ad revenue (up 10% YoY); subscriptions hit 270M Google Cloud revenue up 28% YoY to $12.3B; now profitable Optionality from long-term bets like Waymo, DeepMind, and Verily Risk/reward is compelling; a strong candidate to beat the market long term Overview Despite being part of the "Magnificent Seven," Google’s stock lags due to perceived risks around disruption of its Search business from AI competitors and mounting antitrust concerns. But under the hood, Google has quietly built one of the most compelling setups in tech: with deep AI leadership, multiple high-growth businesses, and optionality from long-term moonshots like Waymo.
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US$282.83
FV
32.8% undervalued
intrinsic discount
9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
23
users have liked this narrative
3
users have commented on this narrative
61
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
Planet Labs PBC
AN
andreas_eliades
Community Contributor
Planet Labs: At The Heart Of The Emerging New Space Boom
Planet Labs leads the EO market with the largest satellite constellation, poised to capitalize on the growing demand for Earth Observation and geospatial data from companies and governments. Plunging space launch and GPU computation costs combined with advancements in CubeSat and AI technologies are boosting the utility of Earth Observation data.
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US$11.31
FV
45.4% undervalued
intrinsic discount
30.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
18
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
64
users have followed this narrative
New
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Exxon Mobil
AG
Agricola
Community Contributor
Exxon in Guyana 5 year forecast Low $135 to High $189
Previous mistake rectified. So as pointed out in the comments, Chevron won the Hess bid (rather than Exxon) and took a large portion of the Stabroek block.
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US$174.00
FV
37.0% undervalued
intrinsic discount
12.97%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
4
users have liked this narrative
4
users have commented on this narrative
16
users have followed this narrative
Updated
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VAU
Vault Minerals
RO
RockeTeller
Community Contributor
if $4,000 is the target gold price
To estimate the potential stock price of Red 5 Ltd based on a predicted gold price of $4,000 per ounce, we can follow these steps: Step 1: Estimate Future Revenue Projected Production : Current production: 425,000 oz. Additional production from Sugar Zone (once operational): 80,000 oz.
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AU$5.00
FV
92.6% undervalued
intrinsic discount
95.51%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
2
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
7
users have followed this narrative
10 months ago
author updated this narrative
Microsoft
BA
Bailey
Equity Analyst
Declining Notebook Sales And A Shift Away From Console Gaming Will Hurt Earnings Growth Potential
Key Takeaways Competition from free Office Productivity software will likely cause seat growth to decline for home and commercial customers Increased smartphone compute power and diminishing compute needs will see Notebook sales decline A shift towards PC and mobile gaming will be detrimental to Xbox console sales and services Catalysts Stagnating Growth in Microsoft Office Revenue Microsoft’s Office suite has been a staple in workplaces and home offices for years, but competition from free cloud-based alternatives like Google Docs and other vendors like Apple, Cisco Systems, Meta, IBM, Okta, Proofpoint, Slack, Symantec, Zoom, and numerous web-based and mobile application competitors are jeopardising this key revenue stream. The issue for Microsoft here is simple; what matters most to customers is convenience, cost and simplicity, and with Office providing a similar product at an elevated price for consumers means that plenty of users which switch to alternatives like Google Moreover, there was a significant price hike in Microsoft 365 and Office 365 business prices by as much as 20 percent in March 2022.
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US$335.64
FV
56.2% overvalued
intrinsic discount
3.80%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
52
users have liked this narrative
7
users have commented on this narrative
12
users have followed this narrative
10 months ago
author updated this narrative
Apple
MI
MichaelP
Content Lead
Broadening Its Value Chain Into Software & Silicon Will Increase Margins
Key Takeaways Apple will dominate thanks to brand, installed user base, and ecosystem of products More revenue from Services will increase gross and net margins Apple Silicon is paving the way for it to gain market share in the PC space More parts being developed in-house should increase product margins Biggest risks are manufacturing challenges and reliance on emerging markets growth (India) Catalysts Apple’s Brand leads to sticky revenues and increasing installed device base Apple has become more than a tech hardware and software company, it has become a lifestyle product. It has embedded itself into the lives of billions of people around the world, many of whom say they couldn’t live without their iPhone.
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US$166.02
FV
21.9% overvalued
intrinsic discount
5.50%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
67
users have liked this narrative
12
users have commented on this narrative
16
users have followed this narrative
10 months ago
author updated this narrative
META
Meta Platforms
BA
Bailey
Equity Analyst
Reality Labs Will Be A Costly And Unfruitful Bet, Impacting Earnings Power
Key Takeaways Reality Labs will continue to see underwhelming active user numbers despite unit sales growth Metaverse software like Horizon Worlds will struggle to take off due to concerns of an overly digital modern world Developer support for Metaverse apps will remain weak New user data measures will impact targeted advertising effectiveness Cost of revenue will increase on ad-related revenue streams due to a switch to AI Apps like Instagram and Facebook will begin to see a plateau in user growth in the US and Europe Catalysts Reality Labs & The Metaverse Is A High-Cost Bet with Diminishing Returns The company formerly known as Facebook took an undeniably ambitious leap into the future with its transformation into a metaverse-focused company. The strategic realignment was so significant, that the company decided to abandon the name it was known throughout the world as to now be known as Meta Platforms.
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US$527.02
FV
42.3% overvalued
intrinsic discount
6.29%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
33
users have liked this narrative
3
users have commented on this narrative
17
users have followed this narrative
10 months ago
author updated this narrative
Automatic Data Processing
WA
WallStreetWontons
Community Contributor
Despite growing competition and AI-integrated competitors, ADP still hold reign on HCM.
Catalysts Robust Financial Performance : In the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, ADP reported impressive results: Revenue : Reached $5.3 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year, surpassing estimates. Net Income : Grew 14% to $1.2 billion, exceeding estimated figures.
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US$259.70
FV
15.7% overvalued
intrinsic discount
5.39%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
5
users have followed this narrative
10 months ago
author updated this narrative
Adobe
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst
Competition, Costs and Playing Catchup Will Compress Margins
Key Takeaways Slowing growth and margin pressure by new tech will force low return reinvestment Buying Figma is cheaper than competing, but regulators may block Experience Cloud is a growth story, but not Adobe's strong suit High-quality business, but high-growth perception is unsustainable and will likely subside Catalysts Company Catalysts Margins compressing from AI-driven design The adoption of AI-driven design - the $63B TAM can improve as more people utilize creative works, but the profitability of such projects may decline due to the higher availability of AI driven design. This may result in more revenue but lower profitability for Adobe.
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US$317.27
FV
9.6% overvalued
intrinsic discount
9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
16
users have liked this narrative
5
users have commented on this narrative
14
users have followed this narrative
10 months ago
author updated this narrative
PayPal Holdings
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Huge Competition In The Payments Space Will Halve Net Margins
Key Takeaways Payments industry is likely going to become increasingly competitive. PYPL's margin trouble will likely persist - too many competing firms + high incentive to offer lower fees.
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US$75.50
FV
11.1% undervalued
intrinsic discount
18.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
53
users have liked this narrative
14
users have commented on this narrative
10
users have followed this narrative
10 months ago
author updated this narrative
Intel
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Ambitious Product Roadmap And A Cyclical Recovery In PC Market Will Drive EPS Growth
Key Takeaways Market has low expectations for Intel due to a series of strategic errors in recent years. Market is underestimating Intel’s aggressive strategy to regain product leadership.
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US$79.00
FV
75.6% undervalued
intrinsic discount
10.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
86
users have liked this narrative
7
users have commented on this narrative
27
users have followed this narrative
10 months ago
author updated this narrative
HSLG
Hsi Logistica Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario
SA
SandroM
Community Contributor
Exposicao a Casas Bahia, Bons ativos, Boa geracao de renda, Boa Gestao, Bom RG
TAKE AWAY: Preco descontado, bons ativos, todos no raio 30KM, boa geracao de renda, relatorio gerencial consistente, boa gestao. Exposicao à casas Bahia (atualmente em RJ), atualmente o contrato de locacao nao foi afetado, pior cenario podera gerar uma boa oportunidade de compra.
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R$104.56
FV
23.5% undervalued
intrinsic discount
0%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
1
users have followed this narrative
11 months ago
author updated this narrative
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