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PYPL logo

PayPal Holdings, Inc. Stock Price

NasdaqGS:PYPL Community·US$44.8b Market Cap
  • 17 Narratives written by author
  • 15 Comments on narratives written by author
  • 1804 Fair Values set on narratives written by author
Author Program NEWCreate Narrative

PYPL Share Price Performance

US$52.40
-16.85 (-24.33%)
​
US$70.89
Fair Value
US$52.40
-16.85 (-24.33%)
26.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
US$70.89
Fair Value
Price US$52.40
rcb9 US$70.89
Benjamin_Ziegler US$68.00
AnalystConsensusTarget US$59.16
Wed, 5 Aug 26
Fair ValueUS$70.89
Share Pricen/a

PYPL Community Narratives

RC
rcb9's
Fair Value
·
Fair Value US$70.89 26.1% undervalued intrinsic discount

Ten Percent More Volume, One Percent More Transaction Margin

7users have liked this narrative
1users have commented on this narrative
22users have followed this narrative
BE
Benjamin_Ziegler's
Fair Value
·
Fair Value US$68 22.9% undervalued intrinsic discount

PayPal: PayPal Doesn't Need to Grow – It Needs to Stop Falling – A Mispriced Cash Machine With a Cannibal Buyback

12users have liked this narrative
4users have commented on this narrative
94users have followed this narrative
AN
AnalystConsensusTarget
AnalystConsensusTarget's
Fair Value
·
Fair Value US$59.16 11.4% undervalued intrinsic discount

Analyst Commentary Highlights Mixed Outlook and Modest Valuation Changes for PayPal Holdings

6users have liked this narrative
1users have commented on this narrative
532users have followed this narrative
PYPL logo
PayPal Holdings

PayPal: PayPal Doesn't Need to Grow – It Needs to Stop Falling – A Mispriced Cash Machine With a Cannibal Buyback

PayPal looks like a business the market thinks is fading, but the case here is that it only needs to stop getting worse for sentiment to swing back. The big twist is that heavy share buybacks can do a lot of the lifting if core checkout and profit per transaction hold steady—while new ways to pay through AI assistants could add upside if they start to matter.Read more

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BE
US$68
22.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
Benjamin_Ziegler's
Fair Value
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) – updated with Q2 2026 actuals – 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (FY26 tracking toward ~$34.5B → implies only ~2% CAGR – target kept from the original model, now extra-conservative: stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8-6.0B (~13.8% today; $1.5B cost program on track, transaction-margin guidance raised in Q2 – path intact) 3. Share count FY2030: ~680-700M (from 862M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the actual ~6.3%/yr pace (920M → 862M in twelve months, ~$6B repurchased). Feasibility check: retiring ~170-180M shares over ~4 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within $6B+ annual free cash flow (adj. FCF >$1.8B in Q2 alone). 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8-6.0B / ~690M ≈ $8.40-8.75 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$101-105 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality, zero value assigned to the pending bank charter) 6. Discount back ~4.0 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $68 Every input is conservative on purpose. The move from $65 is mechanics, not momentum: a shorter discount horizon, a share count already below the model's glide path, and operating inputs confirmed at or above the conservative case. Notably, the $60.50 bid on the table now sits below even this deliberately conservative math. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the actual ~6.3%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$95-100. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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PYPL logo
PayPal Holdings

The Underrated Transformation of a Digital Payments Giant

PayPal is trying to shake off years of disappointment by rebuilding its checkout experience and pushing into new ways to pay, from smarter shopping tools to its own digital dollar. The bigger question is whether these bets can reignite customer and merchant momentum fast enough in a crowded payments market.Read more

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WI
WisetoWealth
US$90.31
42.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
WisetoWealth's
Fair Value
Revenue
10% p.a.
Profit Margin
15%
Future PE
9.79x
Price in 2031
US$129.99
View
PYPL logo
PayPal Holdings

PayPal: Undervalued Cash Flow Machine or Value Trap?

PayPal faces doubts as growth in its checkout product slows and bigger rivals squeeze prices, but it still throws off a lot of cash that could support a stronger long-term story. A possible buyout adds extra upside, yet the bigger question is whether management’s product and AI push can lift performance without sacrificing profitability.Read more

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DS
DS2invest
US$69.03
24.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
DS2invest's
Fair Value
Revenue
4.06% p.a.
Profit Margin
15%
Future PE
9.89x
Price in 2031
US$99.51
View
PYPL logo
PayPal Holdings

$PYPL Options Are Cheap

PayPal’s core checkout business faces tough competition and shrinking profit per transaction, but the market already seems to expect the worst. The upside comes if a new management push and tighter spending start to turn the story around, while the author argues there’s a way to limit how much you can lose if it doesn’t.Read more

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VA
ValueInvestingSubstack
US$60
12.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
ValueInvestingSubstack's
Fair Value
Revenue
6.48% p.a.
Profit Margin
15%
Future PE
7.71x
Price in 2031
US$87.02
View
PYPL logo
PayPal Holdings

Ten Percent More Volume, One Percent More Transaction Margin

PayPal is processing more payments, but it’s keeping less of each one, and customer growth has stalled—so the real question is whether the company’s big share buybacks can keep carrying the story. See what has to go right for that plan to work, and what warning signs would signal the pressure is getting worse.Read more

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RC
Emerging Author
US$70.89
26.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
rcb9's
Fair Value
Revenue
5% p.a.
Profit Margin
13%
Future PE
12x
Price in 2031
US$114.17
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PYPL logo
PayPal Holdings

Paypal - A Fundamental and Historical Valuation

️ Business Overview Key Metrics Total: 2/17 +1 ✅ Projected Operating Margin: 17.71% +0 ⚠️ Projected 5-Year Revenue CAGR: 5.47% +1 ✅ Last 5-Year ROIC: 12.00% +1 ✅ Estimated Cost of Capital: 5.95% (lower than ROIC) +1 ✅ Last 5-Year Shares Outstanding CAGR: -6.23% -1 ❌ Projected 5-Year EPS CAGR: 7.83% (given the easiness that companies can "manipulate" these values, below 10% represents still a negative) +0 ⚠️ Projected 5-Year Dividend CAGR: N/A +1 ✅ Moody's Rating: A3 -1 ❌ Morningstar Moat: Narrow -1 ❌ Morningstar Uncertainty: High Paypal shows that it still has some competitive advantages given its solid operating margin despite the Narrow Moat rating. The fact that it also presents a solid ROIC more than double its cost of capital , shows that it can still allocate and invest its capital efficiently.Read more

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AN
andre_santos
US$89.87
41.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
andre_santos's
Fair Value
Profit Margin
13%
Future PE
20x
Price in 2036
US$0
View
PYPL logo
PayPal Holdings

Why PayPal’s Growth Story Isn’t Over

PayPal’s growth engine still runs on everyday habits like checkout and Venmo, and recent product changes aim to make paying smoother and more frequent. The bigger question is whether it can defend its spot as Apple, Google, and newer fintech apps crowd the same wallet space—while the market still treats it like its best days are behind it.Read more

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YI
US$90.01
41.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
yiannisz's
Fair Value
Revenue
0.31% p.a.
Profit Margin
14.08%
Future PE
19.56x
Price in 2029
US$126.13
View
PYPL logo
PayPal Holdings

The "Sleeping Giant" Stumbles, Then Wakes Up

December 28, 2025 For precisely 48 hours in mid-December 2025, it looked like the "Alex Chriss Turnaround" at PayPal was about to shift into overdrive. On December 15, the payments giant finally pulled the trigger on a strategy investors had whispered about for years: it filed to become a bank.Read more

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WE
WealthAP
Recommended Voice
US$82
36.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
WealthAP's
Fair Value
Revenue
8.51% p.a.
Profit Margin
14.96%
Future PE
11.41x
Price in 2030
US$119.19
View
PYPL logo
PayPal Holdings

PayPal’s Strong Branding Can Take Advantage Of E-Commerce Tailwind

PayPal aims to turn the ongoing shift to online shopping into steadier growth, helped by its well-known checkout button and Venmo’s push into more everyday purchases. The big question is whether it can keep its edge as tech giants and newer payment options crowd in, while a legal fight tied to Honey tests trust in the brand.Read more

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ST
StjepanK
US$111.57
53.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
StjepanK's
Fair Value
Revenue
5% p.a.
Profit Margin
13%
Future PE
30x
Price in 2028
US$167.76
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Trending Discussion

VA
PYPL logo

As long time Paypal customer I can only add that the company is lying on its historical value rather than innovate and introduce new features for its P2P platform. With sharky fees for moving money in and out they fulishly ignore new competitors like Wise, Revolut and others. Competitors are also offering savings and investments for money parked in accounts. I will not invest in such company as I hardly ever use the accounts I already have with them

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RD
PYPL logo

🎉🎉🎉🎉

0
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0
RD
PYPL logo

Hello to all nice too meeting to all. ,🎉🎉🎉

0
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0

Recently Updated Narratives

RC
PYPL logo

Ten Percent More Volume, One Percent More Transaction Margin

Fair Value: US$70.89 26.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
22 fair values setusers have set this as their fair value
1 commentusers have commented on this narrative
0 likesusers have liked this narrative
BE
PYPL logo

PayPal: PayPal Doesn't Need to Grow – It Needs to Stop Falling – A Mispriced Cash Machine With a Cannibal Buyback

Fair Value: US$68 22.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
94 fair values setusers have set this as their fair value
4 commentsusers have commented on this narrative
0 likesusers have liked this narrative
WI
WisetoWealth
PYPL logo

The Underrated Transformation of a Digital Payments Giant

Fair Value: US$90.31 42.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
10 fair values setusers have set this as their fair value
0 commentsusers have commented on this narrative
0 likesusers have liked this narrative

Snowflake Analysis

Undervalued with excellent balance sheet.

1 Risk
3 Rewards
View Full Analysis

PayPal Holdings, Inc. Key Details

US$34.1b

Revenue

US$20.3b

Cost of Revenue

US$13.8b

Gross Profit

US$8.9b

Other Expenses

US$4.9b

Earnings

Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2026
Next Reporting Earnings
Oct 27, 2026
5.73
40.48%
14.36%
67.6%
View Full Analysis

About PYPL

Founded
1998
Employees
23800
CEO
Enrique Lores
WebsiteView website
www.paypal.com

PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments for merchants and consumers worldwide. The company operates a two-sided network at scale that connects merchants and consumers that enables its customers to connect, transact, and send and receive payments through online and in person, as well as transfer and withdraw funds using various funding sources, such as bank accounts, PayPal or Venmo account balance, consumer credit and debit products, credit and debit cards, and cryptocurrencies, as well as other stored value products, including gift cards and eligible rewards. It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy names. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Recent PYPL News & Updates

Seeking Alpha • Aug 28

PayPal: The Deal Is Off, So Let's Now Focus On What Matters

Summary PayPal Holdings, Inc. remains undervalued after the failed $63.5B Advent/Stripe bid, offering management the chance to refocus on operational improvements. Branded checkout, while no longer a major growth engine, provides stable, reliable cash flows that can support future initiatives if managed efficiently. Braintree continues to deliver mid-teens growth and profitable momentum, with plans to unify platforms for better merchant experience and improved monetization. Venmo is the standout growth catalyst, with 14% TPV growth and multi-product users driving significantly higher ARPA; management must capitalize on this momentum. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Recent updates

No updates

PayPal Holdings, Inc. Competitors

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