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Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst
Followers
373
Total number of followers
Comments
57
Total number of comments
Member Since
2020
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Salesforce
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst
Salesforce Is Solidifying Its Leadership With Enterprise Cloud Customers But Market Growth Expectations Are High
Key Takeaways The CRM landscape is shifting to specialized CRMs for different use cases There is room to increase its market share to 20%. Most efficiency gains have been made, and excess capital will return to shareholders Salesforce will leverage its cloud to create an attractive value proposition.
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US$223.99
FV
11.9% overvalued
intrinsic discount
13.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
8
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
24
users have followed this narrative
8 months ago
author updated this narrative
Johnson & Johnson
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst
Rich Drug Pipeline Will Push Revenues and Earnings Higher
Key Takeaways Well-diversified drug pipeline with 52 drugs in late-stage approval - a good hedge for its patent expirations Kenvue spin off allows JNJ to focus on its more profitable Medical Devices and Pharmaceuticals segments Continued dividend increases and buybacks are affordable and will help capital returns Post Kenvue, I expect JNJ to grow revenues by 7.5% p.a. from its new baseline of $84B, and at higher margins Some risks around litigation, patent expiry and drug success are present Catalysts Robust Drug Pipeline: 52 Drugs Racing To The Finish Line In Late-Stage Approval The key threat to a pharmaceutical stock is the patent expiration of their high value assets. Should a company lack a product pipeline to bolster its future product portfolio, then losing exclusivity to any one drug can be a hit to the business.
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US$173.55
FV
3.6% undervalued
intrinsic discount
6.30%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
16
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
22
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative
Tesla
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Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst
Decent Revenue Growth Won't Stop Valuation Multiple Re-rating Lower
Key Takeaways Tesla’s auto market share will grow but less than investors expect The semi will contribute $17.5B if its value proposition matches that of ICE trucks Energy revenues will reach $16.7B in 2028 as industry tailwinds support continued growth If FSD wins, it’s at risk of being shared by government safety mandates PE will re-rate lower in long term to be similar to current auto peers Business has great growth prospects, but even they don’t justify current price Catalysts Tesla’s TAM and Market Share Has Limitations In the last 4 quarters ending Q2’23, Tesla has delivered 1,638,123 vehicles. Approximately 46.8% of total sales are made in the U.S. and we can use this as a basis to estimate the number of vehicles sold in the U.S., which comes out to 766,478.
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US$177.19
FV
70.8% overvalued
intrinsic discount
14.36%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
113
users have liked this narrative
18
users have commented on this narrative
28
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative
Amazon.com
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst
Capital Intensity, Trade Headwinds and Maturity Won't Hinder Earnings Growth
Key Takeaways Core retail business facing limited expansion room, already has a significant market share in the U.S. Ad and streaming businesses are growing and have the potential to be major drivers of future growth. The ad business is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth of e-commerce.
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US$151.21
FV
42.0% overvalued
intrinsic discount
7.20%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
51
users have liked this narrative
10
users have commented on this narrative
29
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative
NVIDIA
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst
An Oversupply Of Compute Power Will See Margins Recede
Key Takeaways NVIDIA facing challenges, 30% data center market share at risk from chiplets AMD, Samsung, Intel entering GPU manufacturing race at cheaper price points Largest customers producing own chips, limits market for NVIDIA Generative AI cloud solutions introduces revenue cannibalization risk Gaming market revenue share at risk of stagnating Catalysts Company Catalysts Accelerating GPU Performance Will Reduce Profitability There is an argument to be made that the rapidly accelerating performance of GPUs will unlock markets in the next 3 to 5 years, but the same technology can lead to oversupply of compute power in the long term. As recently as 2021, there was a shortage of compute power for use cases like cryptocurrency mining, which was promoted as a key growth avenue.
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US$67.95
FV
155.7% overvalued
intrinsic discount
14.40%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
80
users have liked this narrative
16
users have commented on this narrative
49
users have followed this narrative
8 months ago
author updated this narrative
Starbucks
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst
International Store Growth To Sustain Revenue Growth Despite Labour Headwinds
Key Takeaways Store growth plans to increase by 74% internationally, but only 12% in the US. Coffee demand is expected to be a tailwind for revenues longer term, growing at a stable 4.2%.
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US$86.27
FV
0.7% overvalued
intrinsic discount
5.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
20
users have liked this narrative
4
users have commented on this narrative
9
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative
Alphabet
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst
A Fracturing Search Market and Lack of Monetization Will Slow Revenue Growth
Key Takeaways Alphabet has challenges in its search business unaccounted for by investors Alphabet’s best bet is to focus on the Cloud, but it’s an uphill battle AI will contribute to revenue growth, but profitability may come later Cloud and AI industries to grow, but analysts may have extrapolated too much Catalysts Company Catalysts AI Moat Lies In Proprietary Data Not Models A leaked Google internal memo outlines some controversial thinking inside the company. The anonymous employee argues that smaller peers are rapidly producing Large Language Models (LLM) models that can yield comparable results to Bard and GPT-4, with the added benefit of being cheaper to produce.
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US$216.56
FV
12.7% undervalued
intrinsic discount
10.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
52
users have liked this narrative
13
users have commented on this narrative
38
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative
Enphase Energy
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst
Market Leadership Amidst Increasing Competition Won't Hurt Solid Revenue Growth
Key Takeaways Electricity prices, incentives (tax credits, net metering) and technology advancements will drive sales. Microinverters are gaining traction but their advantage over traditional inverters is unclear.
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US$76.86
FV
59.1% undervalued
intrinsic discount
24.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
5
users have liked this narrative
2
users have commented on this narrative
11
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative
Visa
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst
Regulation and Market Maturity Will Limit Earnings Growth Potential
Key Takeaways Well-positioned to benefit from the continued growth of digital payments and the international market Investing heavily in B2B and cross border payments for new revenue growth Has a wide moat, and a large serviceable market, but investor expectations are already high Additionally the Credit Card Competition Act could be a major negative catalyst Risks to my narrative include stronger than expected US consumer, and increased use of Visa network from future Fintech. Catalysts The Benefits of Visa’s Global Reach Visa processes more than $11.6 trillion in gross dollar volume (GDV), made up primarily of digital payments with the remainder being things like ATM withdrawals, B2B transactions, etc.
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US$243.09
FV
39.6% overvalued
intrinsic discount
9.10%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
7
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
15
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative