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US$65
FV
13.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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RON 8
94.8% overvalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
19.27% p.a.
Profit Margin
38.12%
Future PE
8.72x
Price in 2029
RON 11.39
JP¥1.9k
56.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
5.85% p.a.
Profit Margin
9.37%
Future PE
15.87x
Price in 2029
JP¥2.33k
US$130.83
39.5% overvalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
3.5% p.a.
Profit Margin
26.85%
Future PE
10.19x
Price in 2029
US$170.01
US$64
41.5% overvalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
15.03% p.a.
Profit Margin
14.65%
Future PE
25.17x
Price in 2029
US$81.04
US$25.83
69.4% overvalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
-1.56% p.a.
Profit Margin
4.91%
Future PE
23.05x
Price in 2029
US$33.43