Community Investing Ideas

Global Weekly Picks

US$65
FV
13.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
6.2k
users have viewed this narrative
9users have liked this narrative
2users have commented on this narrative
63users have followed this narrative
US$468.53
16.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
5.27% p.a.
Profit Margin
16.47%
Future PE
19.6x
Price in 2029
US$585.01
US$83
33.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
42.29% p.a.
Profit Margin
34.06%
Future PE
19.25x
Price in 2029
US$101.81
US$7
22.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Profit Margin
5.64%
Future PE
4.54x
Price in 2029
US$9.93
US$6
71.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
23.96% p.a.
Profit Margin
10.72%
Future PE
32.08x
Price in 2029
US$6.16
US$86.27
18.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
17.38% p.a.
Profit Margin
3.37%
Future PE
30.24x
Price in 2029
US$105.63
UK£21
24.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
-1.6% p.a.
Profit Margin
16.75%
Future PE
16.17x
Price in 2029
UK£28.71
US$450.86
2.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
25.06% p.a.
Profit Margin
34.5%
Future PE
13.83x
Price in 2029
US$531.25