Energy Australian Community

Karoon Energy Ltd – Fundamental Analysis Company Overview Karoon Energy Ltd is an ASX-listed international oil and gas exploration and production company with assets in: Brazil : Baúna Project (100% interest) USA : Who Dat, Dome Patrol, Abilene (various interests) Australia : Exploration assets Financial Performance 2024 Full-Year Highlights Revenue : US$776.5 million (+14% YoY) Underlying NPAT : US$214.0 million (+3% YoY) Statutory NPAT : US$127.5 million (↓39% YoY due to non-cash tax adjustments and exploration write-offs) Operating Cash Flow : US$434.6 million Free Cash Flow : US$176.6 million Net Debt : US$8.8 million (↓from US$103.7 million in 2023) Capital Returns : US$85.7 million (dividends + buybacks) Q2 2025 Performance Production (NRI) : 2.94 MMboe (↑25% QoQ) Sales Revenue : US$159.7 million (↑7% QoQ) Capex : US$102.9 million (includes Baúna FPSO acquisition) Net Debt : US$237.9 million (↑due to FPSO acquisition and buybacks) ⚙️ Operational Performance Baúna Project (Brazil) 2024 Production : 7.5 MMbbl FPSO Efficiency : 84.5% in 2024; targeted 88–92% in 2025 FPSO Acquisition : Completed April 2025; expected to reduce opex by US$4–6/bbl from 2026 SPS-92 ESP Issue : Temporary production drop; intervention planned for Q2 2026 Who Dat (USA) 2024 Production : 2.9 MMboe (NRI) 2025 Guidance : 2.3–2.8 MMboe Development : Sidetrack drilling and tieback studies underway; FID for East/South expected by early 2026 ️ Reserves & Resources 2P Reserves (2024) : 67.9 MMboe (↓from 77.5 MMboe due to production) 2C Contingent Resources : 121.4 MMboe (↑17% YoY) Includes Neon (Brazil) and Who Dat East/South (USA) Sustainability & ESG Carbon Neutral (Scope 1 & 2) : Achieved since FY21 Net Zero Target : By 2050 or sooner Social Projects : 21 planned for 2025; aligned with UN SDGs 2025 Guidance (as of August 2025) MetricGuidance Total Production9.7–10.5 MMboeUnit Production Cost (NWI)US$12.5–17.5/boeCapexUS$99–117 millionFinance CostsUS$50–60 millionPetrobras PaymentUS$88 million Investment Considerations ✅ Strengths Diversified production base (Brazil + USA) Strong cash generation and liquidity Strategic FPSO acquisition to improve efficiency Mature development pipeline (Neon, Who Dat East/South) Active capital return policy (dividends + buybacks) ⚠️ Risks Operational reliability issues (e.g., ESP failure at Baúna) High capex and net debt increase in 2025 Commodity price volatility Regulatory and environmental risks in Brazil and USA Conclusion Karoon Energy is fundamentally strong with solid financials, a diversified asset base, and a clear strategy for growth and shareholder returns. However, operational execution and commodity price stability will be key to sustaining performance.Read more

Overview Our analysis indicates that Karoon Energy (ASX: KAR) is generating exceptionally strong free cash flow (FCF), with an FCF margin of ~45%—well above industry averages. Supported by a $65 per BOE base case, stable production growth (+3.8% annually), and a well-structured CAPEX program ($120M p.a.), Karoon is positioned to generate ~$293M USD in annual free cash flow.Read more

Despite its somewhat cringe worthy name—ironically the kind Peter Lynch often sought in his hunt for undervaluation—Boss Energy has emerged as a key player in Australia's uranium sector. With macroeconomic trends pointing towards a global pivot away from fossil fuels over coming decades, uranium is well-positioned to benefit.Read more

Key Takeaways Expansion into LNG exports and domestic gas re-contracting are expected to drive higher margins, revenue growth, and robust, sustained cash flow. Focus on operational efficiency and emissions reduction enhances market competitiveness, credibility, and supports shareholder returns through resilience and lower risk premiums.Read more

Key Takeaways Expectations for sustained LNG demand and flawless project execution could be challenged by decarbonization trends, regulatory risks, and potential project delays. Assumptions of stable shareholder returns and cost efficiencies may be threatened by rising carbon costs, ESG pressures, and operational uncertainties.Read more

Key Takeaways Accelerated production growth and strong long-term LNG contracts position Santos for stable revenue, improved margins, and earnings resilience amid rising energy demand. Advancements in carbon capture and efficiency drive ESG improvements and cost reductions, unlocking new revenue streams and boosting free cash flow potential.Read more

Key Takeaways Expansion via acquisitions and alternative energy initiatives is set to boost Ampol's network scale, diversify earnings, and position it for evolving energy demand. Enhanced retail offerings, productivity gains, and industry consolidation support higher margins, customer loyalty, and stable long-term profitability.Read more

Key Takeaways Tightening local gas markets and integrated gas-to-power strategy position the company for higher margins and improved pricing power in a shifting energy landscape. Strategic funding, reserve growth catalysts, and supportive energy policies enhance long-term revenue prospects and operational flexibility.Read more

Key Takeaways Structural decline in coal demand and advances in renewables will erode Whitehaven's pricing power, sales volumes, and overall revenue potential. Increasing ESG pressures, higher operational costs, and tighter capital access are likely to compress margins and limit long-term earnings growth.Read more